Yeah I’m panicking now. I wasn’t before, even after the debate and the Democrat’s circular firing squad that followed.
I think this makes Trump a big favourite. I am freaking TF out to be honest.
They must know that normal elections in 2028 after a 2024 Trump win are unlikely in the extreme. Any Democrat believing that a Trump win would be “good”–if only for their personal ambitions–would be providing incontrovertible proof of their own spectacular stupidity.
Of course it’s worth a try. But the right will be loudly claiming that This Would Never Have Happened If Everyone at the Rally Had Been Armed.
Nonsense, without doubt. But GOP pols and FoxNews will be screaming it, and their audiences will believe.
Four more months. So, dont panic- or worry.
I keep seeing this and just don’t get it. While we don’t have a ton of examples where a person running for President was shot at and survived there is no evidence to suggest it has ever transformed any of them into the favorite.
I’ve already mentioned this a couple of times, but given the closeness of the Republican convention to this event, it is very unlikely pollsters will be able to separate any bump Trump gets from this from the normal post convention balance most candidates see. I think it is something we won’t know until the GOP finish their event in Milwaukee.
For those actively seeking to stop panicking about the election in the aftermath of the shooting, Jay Kuo wrote a thoughtful piece this morning.
As the threat of chaos and violence grows, there is a strong case to be made that Biden is the candidate who will turn down the national temperature, while Trump will ignite bloodshed. Voters who are sick of political warfare may see that the Democratic ticket offers the only way out of it.
… it would be different if Trump had never played the “victim” and “martyr” cards before. But he has been singing that tune for some time, and those who already see him as a hero for enduring attacks were already baked into the numbers. It’s quite possible Trump doesn’t gain a whole lot more as a “victim” today.
I also suspect that Trump and the GOP will overplay this for sympathy. Already, they are trying to raise money on the news, selling digital collector cards showing Trump with his fist raised high after the attack. That may work with his hardcore base, but among people who don’t like either candidate—the so-called double doubters—it might come off as highly inauthentic and crass.
Thanks for sharing. Very well thought out and I find much to agree with there.
And I have no idea how much “more” significant it is. That’s rather my point.
I’ll grant there’s more people actually questioning it. Is it one-third as claimed? I doubt it for the usual reasons polls (especially today) can have large margins of error. But I also don’t have anything hard to back that.
If the point is that it is significant that people are bringing it up at all, well, I’ll disagree with that. Propaganda does its thing. In the 90s, Hillary Clinton felt compelled to show people she baked cookies like a “normal” wife and mother. So, I think it’s important to figure out exactly how significant it is and respond accordingly, not respond as if it were the only thing that mattered.
You can start panicking now.
…Because?
I loathe every fiber in Trumps body and even I thought the raised fist with bloody ear looked good.
So… people are gonna vote for him because of a cool picture?
I’m very afraid that enough people will do so, yes.
Small numbers of people, perhaps. Unfortunately, all it may take is a few thousand or a hundred thousand in a handful of swing states to possibly decide the whole election.
Also, that photo may further rev up Trump’s base to turn out to vote. Even among the MAGA diehards, there is still a solid chunk of them who fail to get off the couch on Election Day. Trump’s cool photo may motivate that chunk by an extra one or a few percent.
Well, one person, maybe:
As Velocity says, it doesn’t take that many people.
And… the picture doesn’t have to take any individual from 0% to 100%. At any given time, there are probably tens of thousands of people who have just barely decided not to vote. They’re just not quite feeling it that day for whatever reason, because they ran out of coffee or some asshole cut them off commuting to work or a million other reasons. But they imagine the pic and it revs them up just a tiny amount, but enough to walk out the door and vote.
Interesting tweet, and disheartening it has millions of views and many thousands of likes.
Note how she soured on Dems at “MeToo,” and is impressed by a manly gesture (and yet claims to have a degree in Women’s Studies – in any case, she felt that was important to point out). This person is all about working through some deep-seated issues with men and women – this probably goes back to her childhood.
Random tweeter is just as likely (probably more likely) to be a bullshitter, bot, or troll than an actual sincere contemplator. If I look hard enough, I can find anything on twitter.
But nobody’s early voting is this early. There’s about two months for people to drift back down that same percentage and not bother to vote.
I’m sure the GOP and MAGA social media will spam us with the images of Trump’s fist-raise and bloody ear. But I’m equally sure that the potential voters who aren’t MAGA will be sick to death of seeing Trump’s bloody ear, because I am already. Waving the bloody shirt keeps working to rally troops beyond a short while only if you, figuratively or literally, have a new bloody shirt to wave around.
This^
Anyone who voted for DJT because of that picture was likely going to vote for him already.
It increases the chances that lazy Republicans will actually vote.
Yup THAT’S the problem.