IIRC, mail-in vote is for people who are physically in a precinct but don’t want to show up in person to vote, and absentee is for people who are really far out of location to vote (for instance, soldiers stationed abroad.)
Possibly in certain states. In Wisconsin, there is no difference, really. The ballots are ALL the same, actually, and they all go in the same machines on election day. Absentee “ballots” are actually absentee envelopes, which enclose a normal ballot.
These absentee envelopes used to be given (typically, mailed) only to residents who would be out of town or otherwise unable to go the poll on Election Day. Since 2020, essentially anyone can ask for one.
Once a voter fills out their ballot and puts it in the absentee envelope (and signs the envelope, along with a witness), they can return it in any of three ways:
- By mail (this would make it a mail-in ballot, but in practice this is not an important distinction.)
- By hand delivering it to certain official locations (manned by official people) on certain days in the two weeks before Election Day (this was a legal compromise after unmanned “drop boxes” were incorrectly accused of being insecure by Republican state legislators).
- By hand delivering to your assigned polling place (not just any old polling place) on Election Day
The polls mean nothing now. You could not see any trend unless you graphed a single poll through the months. The averages are skewed by numbers of partisan polls near the end.
Thanks. Absentee ballots are mailed in, so I was confused.
Well, I for one have reached “panic” mode, or perhaps more accurately “despondent” mode. I have a deep feeling of dread in my gut, very similar to what I felt upon watching election returns in Nov. 2016. It just feels to me like he’s going to win again - a feeling of inevitable dread. I am not normally an anxious person, but I can feel my stress level is sky high, and I’m going to have to try to tune out the election as best I can for the next couple of weeks to stay sane.
Out of curiosity, other than the fairly small changes in the polls, what has made you become despondent?
(And agreed that discussion about the polls belongs in one of the polls threads.)
Well, we’re talking about feelings, which are hard to quantify, but I would guess that it’s the approaching deadline + the fact that his obvious despicableness, mental infirmity, and dangerousness to the country have not moved the needle in her favor at all. He’s so cartoonishly bad that if, in an alternate universe, a writer created him, the story would be rejected for unbelievability. And yet she is not running away with it. Thus, dread.
It’s also possible my brain is trending negative to cushion me from the shock of 2016 if he does win again. I can’t say for sure, but I can say the pit of dread is there, pulsing darkly. It’s not a good feeling.
They want someone bad. He is their revenge.
My mind is playing tricks on me, too. I can easily imagine a Trump win, I can see it and picture all its happenings. I know he might lose, but when I try to see Harris as the winner, it is very much colored in the black and white starkness of unreality. I think these are symptoms of trauma, seeing an abuser as larger than life, and very much in control (he is an abuser, in every way), yet, refusing to believe that he can be overcome. I am dreading, yet anticipating next month.
Me too.
For me, it was going out of the country for a trip to Greece and Spain last week.
Before my trip, the polls had Harris leading (albeit only slightly) in the polls and the conventional wisdom being that she was likely to win.
During my trip I was blissfully unaware of the campaign. It was a welcome break.
Coming back ten days later, everything seemed to have shifted. All of the pundits are now saying that Trump is likely to win, reputable newspapers are refusing to endorse Harris, and the vibe seems to be in Trump’s favor.
The owners of the newspapers appear to be convinced that Trump will win, so they are directing their editorial staffs to withhold endorsements to avoid retribution from Trump.
Everyone appears to be either cheering Trump’s likely win or fearing it, but with few exceptions (like James Carville), nobody seems to be predicting a Harris victory.
I am in despair. I feel like it’s 2016 all over again, but much, much worse this time. John Oliver has a story from a few months ago about the likely consequences of a second Trump term. I’ve been catching up on old episodes, but I can’t bring myself to watch this one because I’m afraid it will make me physically ill.
I’ll give my answer, even though I know it’s not at me:
Trump’s had a good week. Starting to edge ahead in polls (a lot of non-maga media is trying to reassure their viewers that this is mostly a flood of RW hack polls, but unfortunately, even more respectable polls are seeing this trend now too).
The McDonald’s stunt was a good idea. And the Rogan interview passed by without any blunders.
Obviously all this is relative to trump; I know it’s the same period in which he threatened to send the military against his political opponents and his chief of staff confirmed he’s a fascist. Things like this just don’t seem to matter any more.
I went to Ireland/Northern Ireland for 2 weeks and came home about 2 weeks go. It was definitely a good distraction but I had several people start up conversations with us about politics over there.
One encounter was interesting. Once the person discovered that we were from Pennsylvania she commented enthusiastically that we were voters who could potentially save the USA from a trump takeover. We didn’t talk very long but was impressed with her knowledge of world affairs.
I am not in panic mode yet as I have been staying away from political news for the most part. But there is a buried knot of anxiety that is slowly emerging.
And this is the point (well, one of them) I’ve been making over and over.
There’s a huge part of the nation that’s very angry. Some of their reasons are legit, and some are not. But they WANT what he is.
Huh, checking out FiveThirtyEight’s current polling aggregator, Harris is up by 48.0% to Trump’s 46.6% in the national polls.
Nate Silver has Harris up by 48.5% to Trump’s 47.2% in the national polls.
Why am I not hearing more about this?
…and to answer my own question, it might be because national polls don’t decide the election. I don’t have a subscription to Nate Silver’s bulletin, but third-party reports indicate that he is currently predicting the odds of Trump winning at 53.1% compared to Harris’s 46.6%. Sigh.
Oh well, I am going to look at this for a glass half-full point of view and try to stop obsessing.
Bingo.
The only thing keeping me sane is the thought that after correcting for polling errors that under-reported Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, the polling errors in 2022 over-reported R support. I am hoping that the polling errors are still leaning in that direction this year.
I went to the doctor a couple of days ago for a sinus infection and also to discuss something for depression, so they made me speak to a counselor. The counselor was very nice and we had a good chat. I brought up the anger and terror I feel at the thought of trump winning. She said she is seeing a lot of people who are experiencing very heavy feelings about the election.
People I love very much are of mixed race and when I think about them and what could happen, I get so het up, I start to bawl my stupid head off.
I hope I’m just being ridiculous.
I am very interested in your answer, and everyone’s.
The themes, besides the polling data, seem to be fear based on 2016, and media narratives fueling it.
Related question: which narrative do you think fuels turnout more on each respective side?
I’m in high-anxiety/ panic mode. What tipped me over the edge was noticing that a couple we have been friendly with at crossfit has a Trump sticker on their BMW… They SEEM sane and nice, but nope, can’t do it. I mean, Montana is anything but a swing state, but still.
I see more of a Harris vibe. Sĥe just held a very succesful rally in Texas with Willie Nelson and Beyonce, while the highlights of his rally the same day was he was late and people left early.