I heard it pointed out today;
Trump is finishing his campaign by hitting North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and then Michigan.
North Carolina isn’t really a swing state. Other than Obama in ‘08, it’s been reliably red going back to Ronald Reagan.
So the fact that Trump is there shows that’s he’s nervous. North Carolina is in play when it usually isn’t.
There are good reasons to be optimistic. That’s one of them.
It was definitely in play last time. Trump won with an under 1.4% margin and less than 50% of the vote. It was a fought over state.
There’s no question; from what I heard on the radio this morning, he has technically spent more time total campaigning in North Carolina than in Pennsylvania! Which is either just a blunder, or shows that he’s more afraid of losing NC than PA. Considering that losing NC would likely cost him the election, I guess it would make sense.
“The repeat appearances may signal Trump’s campaign is in trouble,” said Democratic state Rep. Marcia Morey of Durham. “If Trump continues with his dangerous, violent rhetoric these last few days, it may backfire. A campaign of personal retribution does not win votes from people.”
The Robinson Factor might be pretty big in the state.
I’m really hoping so.
Me three.
I’m really trying not to panic but Hilary was ahead by more than Harris and still lost the EC. Joe Rogan endorsing Trump doesn’t help if it motivates young men to actually vote. The thought of RFK jr in charge of health care terrifies me. The only ones who will profit will be the dentists because he has vowed to stop fluoridation of the water on day one.
Just to add to the panic, the Dixville Notch votes are in and it is a 3:3 tie. In 2016 it was 4 Hilary, 2 Trump, 1 Independent. In 2020 it was 5/5 for Biden. In the Republican primary this year it was 6/6 for Haley. The breakdown is 4 Republicans and 2 Independents. To me it looks like Harris is not only doing much worse than Biden but the Haley voters are mostly voting for Trump
And yes I am aware that it is only 6 votes out of tens of millions but I am still panicking.
Which you say despite the fact that she captured 100% of the independents and got a Republican to flip. Now let us go back to never thinking about this town and their increasingly obsolete ritual (considering that there’ve been like 80 million votes cast by now) for four years.
My point is that these Republicans had already rejected Trump twice, in 2020 and in this year’s primary but they still voted for him over Harris.
Yes but that’s back when there were polling errors that went against Trump, underestimating his support. The 2024 pollsters have surely corrected for the mistakes of 2016 and 2020 and won’t be undercounting his side again. If anything, I’d expect the polls to be exaggerating the level of support Trump has, and Kamala will probably be the one who will overperform the polls.
I know it means nothing – that it’s still a coin flip – and that this is entirely symbolic, but still…FiveThirtyEight’s model lurched in Harris’ favor over the past few hours. For about two weeks, it had been stuck at 52% to 53% of runs favoring Trump…but now it has Harris winning just over 50% of its runs (and Trump rounding to 49%).
It’s different people (from 2020).
Here’s a fun piece of trivia.
According to this WaPo map of donor data, if Harris won every state where she had more individual donors, she’d get 500 EV’s.
For the last week I’ve been feeling more and more confident that Harris is going to win this thing. But then I started feeling uncertainty and dread again while watching Monday Night Football last night. Maybe it was all the Trump and Josh Hawley ads I was seeing. (Hawley is running against some Army or Marine Lt Col who ought to be wiping the floor with Hawley’s chickensh*t ass, but from what I hear it’s not even close.) I fear we’re headed for a white christian nationalist version of sharia law.
That’s just Missouri being Missouri.
Are they all the same people?
I expect some of them are; but I also expect there’s at least some difference each year in who’s able and willing to actually go vote in person in the middle of the night. And for that matter, in who’s actually living in Dixville Notch.
…until he finds out that “forever” means “right up to Armageddon, currently scheduled for March, 2026”…
By the way, I’m still panicking. A little bit more than pre-election, as a matter of fact.
Can I please panic now?
As long as you don’t stay in that state for overly long, or use it as an excuse to give up (on whatever), I think it’s a perfectly understandable and rational reaction.