Well, exactly. I view him as a sort of a chaos monster whose combination of intellectual and physical laziness, haphazardness, and rage provides a sort of ideal habitat for corruption and outright evil to thrive. So he’s more of a catalyst for bad things than an actual leader.
It’s in the bag:
Yep. On the MAGA forums it seems to be universally agreed that 1) Trump is clearly winning this election and 2) Dems have started stealing it, in places like Georgia with dodgy machines and voter rolls
That said, I am sensing that some are meekly throwing out this stuff, as something they have to say rather than genuine anger. My gut feel is that when Trump raises his hands to raise his blue-eyed army of wights, very little will happen. It will be like all the times Trump tried to summon his mob to the court cases.
Not even then. I think all the times Trump has audibly farted constitute more grown up and sophisticated humor, if they were played for laughs.
There models equally distribute the likelihood of systemic polling error each direction.
The Selzer poll is important in testing out that assumption.
Of course she may be wrong, theoretically in either direction. But her being wrong even by outside the 95% confidence interval is still a result in Iowa inconsistent with a significant Trump favorable systematic bias, barring a major shift unique to Iowa.
So the likelihood of systemic errors seems unlikely to be equally distributed. ISTM like there is much greater chance of error to the Harris upside than to the Trump upside.
That’s right. And for every usually-Democratic voter who objects to a female President (and declines to vote for Harris on that basis), there are a dozen people of all ages and genders who were depressed and dismayed by Biden’s obvious lack of energy and his problems with communicating clearly. If he had remained the candidate, there would have been hundreds of thousands, at least, who would just have stayed home, too sick-at-heart to get out there and vote.
This SHOULD happen. I don’t think there’s any doubt that Trump will declare victory sometime Tuesday night. I would bet money that none of the networks or cable news shows will say one word about it, much less cut away.
For those who watch a lot of cable news, the theme ‘he will declare victory long before all the votes have been counted’ is a familiar story. But most people watching the news Tuesday night will never have heard that prediction. They will take the channels’ (likely) decisions to let Trump have his say as proof that Trump’s position is perfectly reasonable.
It will add to the problem. Unnecessarily.
The pols and donations make it clear that Harris was the right choice, she brought in enthusiasm.
I completely and totally disagree with your second point. Sure, he had a bad debate, but many other speeches etc after that showed he was still sharp.
No, only during one debate.
I got angry when SNL skit with Family Feud showed Biden as a doddering senile guy. He clearly isnt.
Covid killed off a few.
Meh, 538 shows 50.50 really, and I think they are hedging their bets- now no matter who win, they wont be called out as being wrong.
Seriously?
When I say “befuddlement” I mean in his speaking, I know he’s still sharp but he can’t get the words out and I don’t think it’s merely his stammer.
There have been several examples since the debate, with the “garbage” thing being just the latest, but it was a big one (Obviously the MAGA people were being dishonest in feigning offence, but nonetheless it was a big own goal on the same day when Harris gave a great speech on bringing the country back together).
It is really funny that Harris is held accountable for what Biden says, and Trump is not held accountable for what Trump says.
Unsubscribe from all media that does that.
It’s the double standard of how the Democrats and Republicans have been treated for decades in a microcosm. Just especially egregious since Trump is such a gibbering lunatic.
Anecdote from canvassing for Harris today:
Went knocking on doors in Holland, MI (blue dot in an otherwise red county along West Michigan’s lakeshore). One house had two young women on my list (early 20s). Middle aged woman answered and said they were both away at school. I said we were turning out votes today for Harris and Walz, and she said “Oh, you’re taking to the wrong person. I’m Trump. Wait-- I’m not Trump, just Republican. I’m anti-abortion, but there’s no way I’m voting for that idiot.”
So after this conversation, I suspect even if there are Republican women out there who may not actually cast a vote for Harris, they may not be voting for Trump either this time around.
IMHO and from my POV (I have a sister his age who appears, always, as quick and as sharp as any 30 yr old), not sharp enough as demanded by the electorate (whether for shallow reasons or otherwise).
On a sidenote, the more I see Harris, the more I like her and the more enthused I feel.
One thing I’ve learned recently, from watching far too many Meidas Touch and Bulwark videos is that Trump’s and Johnson’s “little secret” is that they will try to force a contingent election. However, IANA American nor a civics expert, so other opinions would obviously be valuable.
That’s what I’ve assumed. That, or get the Not-Exactly-Supreme (because submissive to the GOP) Court to step in.
I’m sure that Johnson has assured Donald that he WILL be President, don’t you worry, sir! And Johnson played a substantial role in the 2020/21 shenanigans, so he clearly has no moral objection to deep-sixing democracy. Whether he accomplishes this through the courts or via a House coronation of Donald I may be less crucial to him, though he’d probably expect more personal advantage if it goes through the House.
That SNL appearance gave me chills. There’s something about that woman that is inspirational and I think it’s hard to quantify. I believe the pro-Harris feeling is much stronger than people think, and it’s going to be a lot more than anti-Trump.
There’s nothing they can do to cause that. The only way it could happen is if the Electoral College tied (which will not happen) or if a third candidate got EVs (which will not happen).
Trump thinks it’s a “secret” because Johnson only told him about the possibility a few weeks ago and so he assumes nobody else knew about it.
Just like they did in 2020, which is why Trump has still been president this entire time, right?
Some of y’all, respectfully, are seriously still harboring unresolved trauma fro 24 years ago.
I agree. Just like it would be nice to have a casual lunch with Obama. She seems approachable. A genuinely nice person.
Would it be fair to day that the latter is much less moneyed, resulting in way less influence / impact in any political arena?
But in front of Trump voters? Wouldn’t be surpirsed if very few of them even batted an eye. (re: mic blow job)
Agreed - I feel* Dobbs will have ended up being the GOP death knell.
*That damned F word.
Stripping women of the vote is one of the things they want to do, so they clearly agree.
I got the impression that they want women to have votes. That their husbands cast on their behalf. Same with kids.
Along with the Orange Peril proclaiming that he will protect women, whether they want it or not. Or as the Elder Ottlet put it, “Welcome to Gilead.”