I’m cautiously optimistic that Harris will win, but still panicking a bit. This is mostly because no matter what, 40% of the electorate seem to either support the kind of leader Trump is, or to be such cowards that they won’t speak out against the problematic aspects of what their party has become.
Literally nobody seems to have a plan to deprogram the cult members. Right now, it’s true that red states have lots of blue and vice versa, but that’s not inevitable. Time and laws and culture can pull Red American culture away from Blue American culture, and we can actually become separate peoples sharing a nation. That doesn’t go well.
What I’d love to see is another 8–12 years of Democratic leadership in all three houses (Senate, of Representatives, and White). In that time, a real push toward national unity. What I fear is that, since rage fuels clicks and drives eyeballs to screens, we’ll just have more nasty divisiveness and silly culture wars until somebody really gets hurt.
I’m feeling a bit better as well. I think the PR comment hit hard (though, it isn’t necessarily racist to call someone’s home a dump, and I would have thought the watermelon joke was more offensive), and fellating the mic stand seems to have people concerned.
My cite for the latter is this: As I’ve told you, I sometimes lurk in the Breitbart comments section, and there are a fair number of not-MAGA who troll there; the MAGA crowd lost their shit over the weekend when those trolls made fun of Trump blowing the mic stand. You could really tell it upset them.
Yeh, the last week has gotten my sphincter to un-sphinct a little bit. The seemingly large turn-out by women and the young crowd have been heartening.
I’m hoping it’s a huge win, something that would make it ridiculously difficult to contend in the courts, like the others have said up-thread. But will still be happy with any win, no matter how narrow.
All that said, here we are, again. I’m so tired of his stolen election / voter fraud shtick. It wouldn’t bother me so much if so many people (including a lot in my alt-right, evangelical family) didn’t fall for it so easily. It’s all just so exhausting.
I still feel like it’s going to happen organically over time IF he loses (and especially once he’s gone for good).
It won’t be instantaneous (like it was for the flying monkeys when the Wicked Witch got doused with water) but I think at the very least we’ll return to pre-2008 once they see that their brand of politics was really only “successful” for one election cycle.
Trump is going to come out and make a victory speech on election night. The networks, including Fox News, need to cut away and explain that votes are still be calculated.
“We won this election. Don’t pay any attention to anything else; if they say otherwise over the next few days, they are stealing it.”
Something like that. I hope violence does not occur.
I objected to that freakout when it first happened, but watching what’s happened since, switching to Harris was the right decision. If she loses this, Biden would have lost it worse; and I now think her chances of winning it are a lot better than his would have been. What I was worried about mostly in Biden deciding not to run was the party tearing itself apart trying to decide who should run instead – and that absolutely didn’t happen. Which Biden, I expect, knew.
I don’t, and didn’t, think Biden’s in “cognitive decline”. But I think he is in energy decline. And the energy needed to both run the country and run for office was doubling the load, which is grueling for somebody doing only one of those things.
OK, I had to go hunt that one up.
It looks to me like he forgot that he needs to speak into the mic (which is in his hand) and not into the mic stand (which at that point has no mic on it.) Which seems to me to be at least as much of an issue as the gestures with his mouth toward the mic stand. He’s been making speeches with a mic for how many years now, and now he’s forgotten how to use one?
It might be; because if the polling’s a bit off in the swing states, it’s probably off in all or most of them for the same reasons. So if Harris takes a couple of the swing states, she may take all or nearly all of them.
Unfortunately, this is also true of Trump. The possibly very close popular vote in those states may lead to a huge electoral college win for either one of them.
The ones who entered the cult via Fox will die off, but the ones who entered via the right-wing manosphere have decades ahead of them unless they somehow mature out.
I think you’re being generous. I think he thought it was funny to pantomime fellating the mic stand. Which, in the right context, might be. A political rally is not that context.
Drinking beer with your buddies in the garage might be that context.
I don’t think I’m being “generous” in saying that I think he’s forgotten how to use a mic. I’m saying, if it wasn’t clear, that he must be well into dementia, if he can’t remember how to do something he must have spent much of the previous couple of decades (if not more) doing.
An inability to read the room would go right along with that.
To put it simply, Biden could not have run the high energy campaign Harris has. It would have been more like 2020, not because of COVID this time. And he probably would have lost. Probably because there is still the chance Harris is running away with this, in which case I think Biden would have won also. Even then, we are just safer with a bigger margin.
Agreed. The job wears down and ages everyone and at 80+, it is even harder. He genuinely works huge hours, like he actually does the job…unlike some other recent presidents.
It’s a terrible, aging job, and no one should want to do it. It’s a service to the nation…unless you make it all about yourself and serving your needs.
Agreed. I also feel like the vibe has shifted back in Harris’s favor over the last week. That is heartening as well.
But it is disheartening that the final prediction for both 538 and Nate Silver is that it is more likely than not that Trump wins. I have no words. The only saving grace is that it is still a toss-up. And I’m in disbelief that the saving grace is the fact that the election is a toss-up. Whether Kamala Harris wins or loses, I’m so disappointed in my country and that so many voters have been hoodwinked by a demagogue.
Yet, if their polls are accurate, it could be (could be) that Kamala is 3.5 points higher than her current placement of ~48% and trump is 3.5 points lower than his ~47%.
And, it could be even better, if their polling models are off. Of course, it could go the other direction… but I gotta say, the current vibe seems to be going blue…