Straight Dope Oscar 2008 Prediction Contest

Well, here it is. This is the thread for the 2008 Oscar Predictions.

Follow this link to join the contest.

  1. Go to

  2. Choose, “Play” as your option.

  3. Register your name and info.

  4. Our group info is:

Group Name: Dopers

Motto: Cecil Rules!

Password: cecil

I haven’t made my picks yet, but I’ve set up the site. Select your choices and then, if you feel so inclined, post your choices here.

The night is just a few days away! get going!

I’m in.

Everybody, don’t forget to give yourself a screename - the default is “Entry” and we already have two of that guy. :wink:

I’m is, as my monicker here.

Yes, I’ll 2nd that.

Simply choose “Edit Nickname” and put your Doper Nickname(Avatar) in.

I have no idea why it doesn’t ask you to choose one immediately.

I’ll jump in when I get the chance. Just want to put in that this is one of the few years when I will not get a chance to see any of the Oscar nominees in theater. I’ll be handicapping this strictly by my analysis of trends and reviews.

I’m in. Lets see if my blind stab in the dark in the live action short film category is better than your blind stab in the dark.

Mahaloth thanks for setting it up. Good idea.

Uh, why not chance for the rest of the world to play? =(

Not sure what you mean. Anyone can play. On that website you can enter without being in a group. Entering as part of the Doper group means you can lord your win over those who can respond meekly back instead of a bunch of nameless non-Dopers.

You can. Or even create another group for you and your friends and your submission will be in multiple groups.

After you click on “Play,” be sure to click on “Predict the Winners!,” unless you like voting for Dove soap commercials.

You will have to be an member to sign in- sign-up is free.

Looks like it’s restricted to US only.

Aw, that’s too bad. You’ll have to post here then, though it won’t be an official entry. I haven’t signed up yet but I will. I won this a few years ago but it was pure luck. I predicted a sweep of The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King but I never really thought that it would sweep. I was just having fun, wishful thinking, but it worked. I got a lovely Breakfast at Tiffanys CD from ArchiveGuy (thanks again!)

I’m usually terrible at predicting, bizarre since I follow this stuff very closely and even keep web pages about precursors. If I choose the frontrunners they’ll go with someone unexpected (Marcia Gay Harden?) and if I choose someone out there, they’ll go with the frontrunners. I go with my gut they’ll spring surprises. I go with my heart and they’ll go with the obvious.

One thing about the Academy, it’s not a monolithic entity, it’s thousands of individual people in cities scattered all around the globe filling out their ballots on the kitchen table or in their den or in their car while stuck in rush hour traffic (or giving it to their kids or wives or secretaries or maids to fill out). They don’t get together and decide who to vote for, it’s a very private affair. I’m as guilty of saying “the Academy made a mistake/got it right” as much as anyone, but I have to keep reminding myself that they’re just people, individuals, ticking off choices going down the list.

Film buffs have usually seen more of the nominated films than the people who vote. Many of them are too busy making movies to watch movies (unless you’re Daniel Day-Lewis, who seems to watch EVERYTHING). It’s only in the Foreign-Language, Documentary, and Shorts categories that voters have to prove they’ve seen the nominees before they can vote on them.

People vote for friends or relatives or people they’ve worked with or want to work with (“I voted for you” sucking up stuff), and many of them hate hate HATE being told who/what to vote for so sometimes precursors make no difference at all. Many don’t know the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing (neither do I, really), many of them don’t know the first thing about cinematography other than “nice scenery,” or anything about costume design other than “I worked with her once” or editing other than “that editor made me look really good in that one movie.”

In other words, nobody knows anything.

But if people do want to have a look at the precursors before they vote, here are my pages. The most important precursors are the Guild awards, since while not all Guild members are AMPAS members, most voting AMPAS members in the crafts branches are Guild members.

2007-8 Hollywood Guild Awards

(two Guilds have yet to choose winners, the Costume Design Guild, which will announce their winners on the 19th, and the Motion Picture Sound Editors, who’ll choose their winners on the 23rd, the day before the Oscars, but their nominations are on there)
The rest of the awards are not so precursory, but give an indication of what’s being talked about (which generally means No Country For Old Men)

2007-8 non-Guild Awards

We’re at about 9 people signed up so far.

I’m trying to find links to previous years contests. For some reason, they aren’t coming up for me. Anyone else find them?

I’m usually the one to set these up (here’s the link to last year’s), so thanks to Mahaloth for taking the reins (own his/her own initiative) since I’ve been swamped.


Cool. I’m in, though I just blindly guessed for the Shorts, Documentaries & Foreign films.

I remember now! Yes, Archive, I did remember that it was usually you. I’ve had three days off work and it just hit me to start the thing.

Thanks for the link! And good luck!

I’m in, if I did it right.

Actually, I don’t see you there. Did you use your username as your name, or are you “Entry”?

I’m usually one of the first ones to sign up, but I’m going to sit it out this year (grumble grumble grumble).