Strategic analysis of the attacks

Actually, I said that a bit tongue in cheek. I won’t be canceling my flight.

It would be easy to make millions and not raise an eyebrow. That’s with simple bank accounts, internet trading, etc. Certainly, Bin Laden, as a millionaire son, knows all about secret bank accounts, dummy corporations, dummy accounts, and could probably make tens of millions without being traced. Investment banks really don’t care where the money comes from as long as it “appears legitimate.”

Now, if someone goes for really really really big money, you might be able to trace some of it back. However, it would likely be a dummy corporation set up somewhere like the Bahamas.

Not too likely to catch someone this way.

I’ve said this in another thread, but I believe the strategic purpose of the attacks is to get the US and its allies to respond indiscriminately.

I feel ashamed of myself for thinking this but…

The WTC was chosen because it had 2 towers. The 18 gap between planes allowed the media to get there to film what the terrorists thought of as their “success”.

They had no way of knowing that someone would happen to be there to film the first impact, but they made sure the world saw the second one.

I would like to suggest that those responsible for the attacks are clapping their hands in glee. Frankly, they screwed up in the actual operation; less than 10% of possible casualties achieved and New York will be functioning again next week and the military and Washington were not even slowed down.

So why do I think they are so happy?

For three days, people have not been able to go where they need to be and the markets have been closed - a greater economic impact than squashing a couple of buildings.

Every passenger from now on is going to need at least an extra hour to get on a flight (domestic baggage matching) - an hour during which no work will be done. Indirect economic harm.

The new air travel rules will prevent ease of travel (no knives - I sort of agree with the thread on the 2nd amendment here - soon no forks or spoons or glass or any carry-ons) for everyone worldwide and increase ticket prices (no mail or cargo) by a factor of close to three (cargo doesn’t mind crowding!). More indirect economic harm.

Civil liberties will be decreased in the name (everyone agrees, right?) of the safety of our children.

Yes, I think they are crawling all over themselves in self congratulations.

Incidentally, if domestic baggage matching had already been in place, we would not have one of the perp’s bags with all of the evidence it contains. What a great idea, eh?

A couple quick points here:
Regarding the WTC and whether the collapse was anticipated. Seems blatantly obvious it was. Recall he tried to bring one down in '93. You’re all looking at this from the point of view of someone on our side. If you’re ObL, and you ask a structural engineer how to bring down said buildings, well, from what I’ve heard the last several days, it was quite clever.
Regarding targets - I’d have to add Boeing(both for the commercial and defense side) and a large, AMERICAN event…say, Superbowl? World Series?

Good call but not so sure about it not attracting attention.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/629380_asp.htm

Some aspects that I haven’t seen mentioned :
[ul]
[li]the terrorists could have been playing for a home audience, i.e. “See, we are the only one who can strike the Great Chaitan in his lair”;[/li][li]if bin Laden is truly the one behind all this, one way his denial of the attacks could work is like this : he claims his innocence, the US-led coalition attacks him, his organization claims that an “innocent” man is victimized and starts a recruitement drive or even worse, if he is killed, his death inflames the MidEast and starts a true Jihad.[/ul][/li]
One aspect that might have misfired is if they were counting on a quick, reflex response from the US, so as to make some political capital out of it.

Also among other potential targets, check the ports. A disguised shipload of explosives (McVeigh anyone ?) could be a really nasty surprise, look at Cleveland in 1943 (?), when the LNG carrier exploded or Halifax in 1917 when an ammunitionship burned and exploded.

Obviously OBL wants a significant reaction from the US. So what possible gain does he foresee from that reaction?

I don’t think this guy’s an idiot. There’s no way he and his five best buddies are sitting around a fire in a cave finalizing their order of battle dreaming about what it’ll be like after they’ve decisively kicked the US military’s butt.

Based on the considerable risk he’s assumed, I’m worried that he wants a really big military response so he can use that as the reason for setting off a few nukes in America.

If OBL were to nuke a couple of cities out of the blue (like the attack on 9/11), the region wouldn’t support it and that would be the end of OBL. Setting off nukes in response to a large scale military action (after the action has gone on long enough so the cameras have captured the misery, mother holding dead child, hospital bombed, etc…) the region rises up to support the only man that could strike back at the great Satan. Game over, OBL wins.

The Peyote Coyote said:

Okay, perhaps I’m incredibly ignorant here, but how does spiking trees in a forest and maybe destroying some logging machinery equate to flying planes into the WTC? That seems a significant leap off into left field. You said minor crimes above. How do they go from minor crimes to mass slaughter?

I think Bin Laden has the top of the chart, perhaps but not guaranteed support from Iraq and at least harboring from Afghanistan. Number 2 is the drug cartels, but I don’t really think it’s them.

  1. Bin Laden announced to the press earlier this year something was going to happen.
  2. If it were the Columbians, they would need to claim responsibility to make their intent known. Unless this was a diversionary tactic? Get the U.S. so embroiled in the Middle East and South Asia that we don’t have the attention for South America?

But I did like your rundown of the candidates.

I think the reason that no one has stepped forward to claim “ownership” of Tuesday’s attacks is that it all went horribly too, too wrong. In that maybe there were a dozen different flights taking off at about the same time from the east coast that were “set up” for hijacking; and the targets, yes, were “big things” recognizable while flying.
But in NO ONE’s wildest imagination should the World Trade Towers have collapsed! NO ONE is going to claim credit for the SHEER MAGNITUDE of this!
Any terrorist group could have claimed credit for planes having been flown into building as “warnings”, I suppose. But the sheer magnitude of this would cause instant annihilation of any group admitting to it.
And yes, it appears to be an “on-going project”, as more of the same attempted to board planes as airports attempted to open.
And I hope it is NOT a country who’d be looking for “war reparations” from the United States after we and the world punish them for this.
If the reason we were attacked is because we are “infidels”, why have the terrorists be trained in our flight schools here? None of this makes sense.
And yes, I have nightmares of the next plane just plowing through a major U.S. city. Scares me awake.
I am here in NYC, and am outraged that terrorists blew up part of my city!