While looking on line I came across this
I know it’s a bit dated, but let’s say for the sake of conversation that the numbers have not changed a great deal since. How long would 592 million barrels of crude oil last us in the event that we were to become somehow dependant on it? That is the purpose of a strategic oil reserve right? Would we have weeks? Months? Just curious how ready we would be if say OPEC started an oil embargo against the U.S.
According to the EIA, our current average daily imports of petroleum (year to date) are about 9,581,000 barrels/day.
Assuming this rate held constant, and no increase in domestic production occured, we would have 592,000,000 / 9,581,000 or 61.8 days of reserves.
At the maximum level of 700 million barrels in the SPR, we would have about 73 days.
However, it is unreasonable to think that domestic production would not increase sharply, in response to an expected huge increase in US oil prices. We might see oil go up to $60-100 a barrel, which would temporarily rejuvenate US production as many fields and resources that are not economically recoverable now suddenly become worth it.
(IMHO)I think you could also rest assured that if we did have to switch to the SPR as a sole source of crude oil, there would also be some kind of mandatory rationing or emergency vehicle only restrictions that would accompany the switch. I looked around the SPR website a little to see if anyhting like that was spelled out, but couldn’t find anything other than the following:
It would be hard to calculate, as several factors would be involved.
I’m not looking anything up tonight, but these figures are about right. Our domestic production provides a little less than half our current consumption (~45%, IIRC) and that would continue to be available. As Una observed, prices would rise, allowing some previously non-commercial domestic reserves to be developed (one unknown factor), thus increasing supply.
Some sort of rationing and/or other conservation measures might well come into place, and their effect is another unknown factor. What little we do export (a findable number - try the EIA) would likely remain in our domestic supply system. In a long-term crisis, some consumption of fuel oil might be converted to coal or natural gas.
And finally, your calculation must include that we can’t drawdown the SPR completely; I should say that drawdown is compllete when ~15% (again, IIRC) remains - it’s not coming out.
Roughly 40% of US crude oil imports in 2002 came from non-OPEC countries, mainly Canada and Mexico. I think that proportion varies quite a bit from year to year though.