I think your reasoning is a bit flawed. The study isn’t about how “having the gay gene* makes you more susceptible to early death,” it is trying to point out what you have been observing - being gay causes people to turn to an unhealthy lifestyle which makes you more susceptible to early death.
So you do not want to divide the participants up by lifestyle you want to divide them up by sexual orientation.
I also agree with Annie’s observation about obituaries. How many gay people who were born before 1960 would be advertising it in their obits? How many gay people who were born before 1960 most likely have kids and grandkids, thus making their obituaries seem straight? I know 2 gay guys over 50 and they both have kids and grandkids.
A guy dying in his 40s is tragic. If he committed suicide because he was gay, I would suspect it might be picked up by the gay community. If he dies from AIDS it will also be picked up. Those guys go in the “dead at 40 gay guys” pile. All of the rest are…just old people who died.
*I think I am using hyperbole there, or something.
I’ll trot out my own personal example of selection bias (as regards personal experience/anecdotal sampling), because it’s so precisely relevant to the topic under discussion: All the people actively suffering with AIDS whom I’ve ever met knowingly face to face had had sex with only one other person in their life, and that in a committed monogamous relationship. (I.e., of the (two) people I met face to face whom I knew had active AIDS, both had contracted it from their only sex partner, at a time when they were in a monogamous relationship with him (two different 'him’s).
Yes, I’m quite aware of how improbable that is. (It is, however, factual.) No, I don’t draw any bizarre conclusions from it – except this one: Selection bias can give you a very distorted picture of what the reality of human behavior is.
I have to agree with this. I know quite a few gay men over 50, and I am in a small minority who never married and had kids. Most are grandfathers or great-grandfathers. And some of them are still married.
This probably references Sandfort, Th.G.M., Graaf, R. de, Bijl, R.V., Schnabel, P.: Sexual orientation and psychiatric disorders: Findings from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study NEMESIS. Archives of General Psychiatry, 50(1):85-91, 2001. I couldn’t find a link to the article but the author’s website is here, and a Google search turns up numerous summaries/references concerning it.
While Dutch society is much more socially accepting of homosexuality than (most of) US culture, including having legal gay marriage, it’s certainly not homophobia-free. (I’m not Dutch myself, or homosexual for that matter, but I lived in the Netherlands for a couple of years.)
For one thing, note that the legalization of gay marriage in the Netherlands dates back only to 2001, and gay civil unions (“registered partnership”) only to 1998. You would hardly expect a 2001 psychological study of Dutch homosexuals to reflect perceptions of social acceptance equal to those of heterosexuals.
Moreover, there is still plenty of anti-gay prejudice in the Netherlands. Some of it is found among recent immigrants from African and West Asian countries where homosexuality is strongly condemned, and some among conservative/traditional Dutch Christians, especially in rural areas. Over 1500 anti-gay hate crimes were reported in 2008 in the Netherlands. Incidents of gay-bashing by radical Muslim immigrant youths are described as growing in frequency. Attacks on Dutch gays by native Dutch and other westerners are also a significant problem, as in a 2007 incident where two Canadian soldiers beat up a gay man in Amsterdam:
And a recent study of Amsterdam youth suggests that homophobic attitudes are common among immigrant and native Dutch people alike:
In short, the higher prevalence of psychological problems among homosexuals in the Netherlands proves absolutely nothing about the inherent unhealthiness of homosexuality. Dutch homosexuals have plenty of problems to deal with, even if not being legally allowed to get married isn’t one of them.