Absolutely. Look at the history of the “Walkaway Campaign”. Turned out to be mostly astroturfing. Lying about “I used to vote Democrat, now I’m voting Trump!” has an established history. They think they’re creating an environment where “reluctant Democrats” can finally embrace abandoning the Democratic Party because “everyone else is doing it.”
While my family has always voted Democratic, some of them think Biden is too old and they may sit out this election, which would help Trump. If a lot of people think that way, and Trump edges out Biden in certain swing states, all I can do is quote Thomas Jefferson, who said “The government you elect is the government you deserve.”
I have trouble convincing people that, if they don’t vote, there is no do over-the person with the most votes is going to be President.
Their President.
Yes.
I’m sure there are shy Trumpers. And when almost everyone in a town is for Trump, some of the rest will be shy Democrats.
While I am believer in polling averages, single polls don’t mean much. And subgroups in single polls, such as just female voters, or just Black voters, mean less.
The biggest problem Biden has with Trump is the current economy. It doesn’t matter how well the overall economy is doing or how high the stock market is, it’s how people perceive they are doing compared to when Trump was president.
People forget how it was under COVID, and they just remember that food and gas were cheaper, and that’s all that matters. Until Biden can somehow recreate the pandemic economic “miracle” that caused some prices and mortgage rates to go down, he’s in trouble. Or as James Carville might say today, it’s the perceived economy, stupid.
I don’t think it’s that bad. Even Trump had to acknowledge that the economy is doing well, so much so that he’s trying to take credit for it.
Now yes, the stock market being high isn’t the same as a strong economy. But if the public perception of the economy was that bad, Trump wouldn’t have felt the need to say anything. I think that the public is finally catching on to the fact that the economy is fine.
That’s probably why Trump and other Republicans haven’t been using that as a talking point lately. The biggest issue they are trying to push is about border security, and rather than harping on the bad economy, I see a subtle shift toward claims that Democrats want to tax the heck out of you. That seems like an acknowledgement that the economy is pretty good, and instead of trying to convince people that they’re poor, instead they’re trying to convince people that the Democrats want to take away what they have.
I keep hoping that on election day Trump will be in prison and unable to communicate with the poorly educated people he pretends to love.
I hope you are right, but people tend to vote with their pocket books, and with gas prices going back up I am hearing people complain that high inflation is still here, groceries are too expensive, and mortgage rates are too high to buy a house. It may not be as important as border control, but it’s still in the back of their minds, nagging at them every day.
It’s old enough that it was the subject of jokes during Dubya’s term.