I know it’s a bit early, but I think quite a few of the state-level (and Congressional district-level) results this election were quite surprising, and I thought it would make good fodder for discussion.
Trump won states (and a Congressional district in Maine) worth 126 electoral college votes by double digits.
Clinton won states (and a Congressional district in Maine) worth 183 electoral college votes by double digits.
The more competitive states (less-than-double-digit wins) were worth a total of 229 electoral college votes, of which Trump won 180 and Clinton won 49. Here are those competitive(-ish) states and Trump’s margin of victory or defeat in each (and EC votes):
9.6 Iowa (6)
9.2 Texas (38)
8.6 Ohio (18)
5.7 Georgia (16)
4.1 Arizona (11)
3.8 North Carolina (15)
3.4 Nebraska District 2 (1)
1.3 Florida (29)
1.2 Pennsylvania (20)
1.0 Wisconsin (10)
0.3 Michigan (16)
-0.4 New Hampshire (4)
-1.5 Minnesota (10)
-2.4 Nevada (6)
-2.7 Maine At Large (2)
-2.9 Colorado (9)
-4.9 Virginia (13)
-8.3 New Mexico (5)
Personally, I was surprised at how far right Ohio and Iowa swung (and ME2 +10.4!). It was delightful to see the Rust Belt move so far towards the Republicans, but I was a bit disappointed that Colorado and Nevada seem to have hardly budged (Obama’s margins were similar between PA, CO, and NV in 2012).
Let’s pretend that you were the campaign manager for the nameless, faceless Democrat who wins the nomination in 2020. Which states do you feel you’ve got a shot in? Would you ignore NM, assuming it’s safe, and IA, TX, and OH, assuming they’re out of reach?
Would you concentrate your efforts primarily in those states that were within a couple of points either way (FL, PA, WI, MI, NH, and MN )?
Do you think changing demographics over the next four years are likely to bring states you lost in '16 into your column, or perhaps states you won in '16 will slip away to Trump?
Which characteristics / attributes (Young? Hispanic vs black, or white? Midwesterner? Texan, hoping for a knockout blow? Governor vs Senator? Military experience? “Outsider”?) would you hope for in a candidate to help bring more of these states over to your column?