What should the Dems plan of attack be for 2020?

Politics & Elections
1

I know it’s a bit early, but I think quite a few of the state-level (and Congressional district-level) results this election were quite surprising, and I thought it would make good fodder for discussion.

Trump won states (and a Congressional district in Maine) worth 126 electoral college votes by double digits.

Clinton won states (and a Congressional district in Maine) worth 183 electoral college votes by double digits.

The more competitive states (less-than-double-digit wins) were worth a total of 229 electoral college votes, of which Trump won 180 and Clinton won 49. Here are those competitive(-ish) states and Trump’s margin of victory or defeat in each (and EC votes):

9.6 Iowa (6)
9.2 Texas (38)
8.6 Ohio (18)
5.7 Georgia (16)
4.1 Arizona (11)
3.8 North Carolina (15)
3.4 Nebraska District 2 (1)
1.3 Florida (29)
1.2 Pennsylvania (20)
1.0 Wisconsin (10)
0.3 Michigan (16)
-0.4 New Hampshire (4)
-1.5 Minnesota (10)
-2.4 Nevada (6)
-2.7 Maine At Large (2)
-2.9 Colorado (9)
-4.9 Virginia (13)
-8.3 New Mexico (5)

Personally, I was surprised at how far right Ohio and Iowa swung (and ME2 +10.4!). It was delightful to see the Rust Belt move so far towards the Republicans, but I was a bit disappointed that Colorado and Nevada seem to have hardly budged (Obama’s margins were similar between PA, CO, and NV in 2012).

Let’s pretend that you were the campaign manager for the nameless, faceless Democrat who wins the nomination in 2020. Which states do you feel you’ve got a shot in? Would you ignore NM, assuming it’s safe, and IA, TX, and OH, assuming they’re out of reach?

Would you concentrate your efforts primarily in those states that were within a couple of points either way (FL, PA, WI, MI, NH, and MN )?

Do you think changing demographics over the next four years are likely to bring states you lost in '16 into your column, or perhaps states you won in '16 will slip away to Trump?

Which characteristics / attributes (Young? Hispanic vs black, or white? Midwesterner? Texan, hoping for a knockout blow? Governor vs Senator? Military experience? “Outsider”?) would you hope for in a candidate to help bring more of these states over to your column?

2

Your suggestions remind me of Hillary’s approach which was a failure. Have you read any of the recent threads discussing this?

3

Pretend that the voters aren’t numbers on a map.

4

It kind of depends on what happens over the next three and a half years or so, doesn’t it? Maybe Trump will really make America great again and the party will just have to go for a 1972-style participation trophy. Or maybe people will be living in Trumpvilles under bridges.

5

Do you think it’s plausible for someone to achieve a 1972-like landslide again? There were lots of pre-election theories that essentially no one changes their mind anymore, that we’re all too partisan now to be persuaded, that both parties have a floor of like 40%, etc.

Looking at the last 5 presidential elections (2000-2016), the only states that have switched sides (even once) are:
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Indiana
Maine (sort of)
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin

Do you think there’s a candidate out there that’s capable of capturing the Democratic nomination and going on to win states like TX, GA, AZ, SC, or AK? Or a candidate that’s capable of capturing the Republican nomination (admittedly, a wider net than once thought) that could go on to win states like OR, DE, NJ, CT, or RI?

6

The Democratic strategy in 2020 should be simple, like any defeat-the-incumbent campaign: Relentlessly emphasize the failures of the incumbent’s 4 years in office and tell what you’d do better.

7

THat’s pretty much it for 2020, true, but we’re still a 50-50 country and there has to be a longer term strategy. For the Democrats, there will be a pretty serious ideological fight in the 2020 primaries, and whoever wins that fight, the party should probably mostly follow that candidate’s lead. The same goes for the GOP in 2024. Both parties are in flux now and that’s going to cause some big time realigning. We probably won’t have a 50-50 country when it’s over. One party will probably be clearly superior by 2028.

8

It’s always best to steal the other team’s playbook. First and foremost, 2020 is a census year. That means if you win the state legislatures, you draw the maps to your favor for the next decade. So you go to the states and look for Republicans who won their districts by small margins. Invest heavily in their opponents in 2020. Take the statehouses back, redraw the Congressional districts.

On the national level- put Howard Dean in charge. If you were associated with the Clintons, get out of the DNC. For the next four years, every single time there is any bad news, run to the nearest microphone and whine about it and blame it on the sexual predator in the White House. Find people who will be hurt by the end of Obamacare, and put their plight on the evening news every single day. Make fake news sites on Facebook and flood social media with everything bad that can be said remotely plausible about Cheetoface. Don’t cooperate with the White House on anything for four years, let the nation crash into the reef so we can control the wreckage. Organize mass protests in the streets on a regular basis. Pour money into the inner cities helping people get their voter IDs in those states where Republicans are trying to take away their voting rights. Put money into reviving Air America to compete with Hate Radio on the right. Above it all, anytime anywhere there is bad news, lay the blame on the White House. Every time a factory closes, make it big news. Fight relentlessly for four years and never compromise with Satan’s minions in the White House.

9

As far as presidential candidates, we need someone exciting. That’s what recent elections tell me – exciting and charismatic Democrats win, and win big (92, 96, 08, and 12), while milquetoast, boring Democrats will always fail to bring in the middle and lose in very close elections (00, 04, 16). I guess this is a shame in a way, since many boring people would probably make great presidents, but that’s how it is right now.

No point in bothering to try for a centrist candidate – any exciting, charismatic Democrat can angle to the center for the general election, but they can be wild and lefty at the beginning, as long as they excite Democrats. When Democrats are excited, they win. When they aren’t, they almost win, but manage to lose.

As for House and Senate, bring back the 50 state strategy from '06, and recruit like mad for Democratic candidates that can win in red districts and states.

10

Actually, a lot of those seats are up in 2018.

There’s a reason Democrats haven’t done that and it has little to do with the goodness of their hearts. Democrats have a few Senators in deep red states up for reelection in 2018. Good luck keeping those Senators voting the party line. Obstruction could be a good strategy, but it doesn’t look like they can implement it. You’ve also got Warren and Sanders backing Trump on certain issues, which will be a very nice way to divide the base.

11

That sounds to me like a move to the center. And a recipe to have another two year hold on power before the Blue Dogs get voted out again.

12

I’d also note that the most electrifying candidate in the Democratic primary in 2020 could very well be a celebrity. Are you ready for Kanye?

13

A lot depends on the state. I think a lot of states have all their house seats up every two years, so Republicans can’t hide those in the off years. Some may have worked things to put the senate and governor seats in non-presidential years to avoid Democratic voters. That’s a challenge- but first win the state houses back. The 2018 US Senate map was terrible for Democrats, but will improve dramatically after two years of the disastrous new administration. The out of power typically does better in the midterms. But the 2020 US Senate map is awesome sauce for Democrats, as those GOPers swept in on the 2014 wave will go out with the tide in 2020.

14

Not a move to the center for the whole party – in fact, I’d advocate for more liberal/progressive presidential candidates, since they tend to excite Democrats more. But for House and Senate, we should try to win every seat, which sometimes means nominating more conservative Democrats.

And a 2 year hold on power in Congress is better than a 0 year hold on power.

15

Oh yeah, 2020 has the potential to be a HUGE year for Democrats. That’s one big reason I wanted Trump to lose. With no Trump, we’re facing 12 straight years of Democratic rule, all the Clinton drama that goes with that, and probably a young, attractive Republican who isn’t particularly threatening. Maybe we lose the Presidential race, but we probably hold the Senate(especially after 2018’s gains), and we probably don’t lose the Presidential race by much, plus keep the House and 30+ governors. Thanks to Trump, assuming he screws everything up, Democrats could dominate it all in 2020, all the way down to the state level.

But I think the Democrats have a pretty good handle on what their strategy should be. Obstruction worked because Obama’s base is unmotivated and won’t come out when he’s not on the ballot. Republican voters will be there in 2018. That’s why obstruction isn’t generally a good strategy for Democrats, although they will totally oppose a lot of what Trump wants to do. But they won’t oppose things just because it’s Trump’s idea.

16

The conservative Democrats have to actually vote like conservatives though. And I’m not sure those red states are winnable anymore because now red state voters are wise to the scam. Their Democrats won’t be there for them on really big votes when it counts. They’ll always do what the party wants.

17

So what are you advocating? Just giving up, even when more voters support the Democratic party nationwide? An actual move to the center just means more Clinton-esque, Kerry-esque, milquetoast candidates who will lose in close elections, while eventually a Bernie-ish party rises on the left and destroys any chance of the Democrats actually winning nation-wide.

We have a recipe for Democratic success – 2006 and 2008. We should do what they did.

18

What BobLibDem said: you need something like Air America to be part of the conversation and get more people actually thinking like Democrats.

19

I understand that both parties do this but you have just enunciated and, worse yet, advocated for the absolute worst aspects of 2 party politics. Go that route and any chance of national reconciliation (admittedly slim) is completely out the window.

20

I agree but what can you do? If only one party will take the high road, then it becomes foolish to take the high road.