Supreme Court rules on abortion access and Trump tax returns next week

Any predictions?

I think they will reject the abortion law changes.
And Trump will have to turn over tax returns in 1 case at least

Maybe it’s wishful thinking

At best, Trump will be told to turn over his tax returns. I don’t see it happening.

Turning them over is not making them public. They go to Congress and NY State. But he will probably turn them over and tweet about it for a while to fire up his base.

My uninformed prediction:

On abortion I expect a 5/4 ruing that leaves Roe v. Wade technically intact, but allows states to create laws that effectively eliminate all abortion providers.

On Trumps taxes again I expect a split decision. Either congress will be granted access, or else the justices will make an argument similar to the one they gave to Trump regarding DACA. Congress may have the right to his taxes but they need to do a better job of explaining why they need them. The argument that Trump is immune to oversight will be rejected by the majority, but there will be a minority opinion supporting that notion. Which way it finally goes will depend on how much Roberts despises Trump. I give it about 60/40 odds against the releasing of the tax forms.

On the tax return issue, Trump will never turn those over. He will always find some excuse. Unless he’s actually thrown into prison on contempt of court, no (legal) action will reveal those documents. However, presumably his accountants or the IRS can be forced to disclose those records. I don’t see this happening in time for the election though.

In the NYS case it’s his accountants that would have to turn them over to a grand jury. Which, if the SC says yes, would likely happen before the election.
It would also be very unlikely the public would see them as a result.

Been there, done that-Not Gonna Happen.

It is not Trump but the IRS that is empowered to give Trump’s tax returns to Congress. The head of the IRS might not fancy going to jail to protect Trump.

Assuming they are turned over to Congress, care to bet how long it takes for them to be leaked?

Pretty much this. Unless Roberts or Gorsuch really leans on the “no undue burden” standard, they’ll vote to uphold the restrictions. On the taxes, I can see them allowing the state grand jury access, but not Congress. So split in that both sides lose, but with multiple dissenting opinions on both sides.

Not only that, but the accounting firm has already expressed a willingness to hand them over, as long as it’s authorized by the court.

I tend to agree with silenus about the tax return cases; New York will probably get them, and Congress probably won’t. As for the June Medical Services case, I don’t even want to make a prediction. There are two separate issues there: Louisiana’s TRAP laws (and TRAP laws generally), as well as the third-party standing doctrine. In some ways, losing the third-party standing issue would be as bad for abortion rights as losing the TRAP law issue.

Agree on the abortion 5/4 upholding Roe v Wade.

Agree on the split re taxes: no to Congress, yes to NY state … and no release before the election due to grand jury secrecy rules.

Didn’t they say this about the lower court ruling too…until the lower court told them to hand it over?

Normally decisions are out at 10 am on Mondays but since they have a bunch left it will probably go into Tues or Wed. They decide all cases pending before their summer break.

To be clear, Roe v. Wade is not on the table. The parties have agreed that the outcome should be determine by Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt. I predict 7/2 no standing (Breyer, Kagan) and a punt on the merits of that one. 6/3 (Kagan) no Trump tax returns to New York–president not amenable to state process while a sitting president. 5/4 no Trump tax returns to Congress–political question.

Concurrences and dissents will about, so get your reading shoes on.

They ruled 9-0 Clinton had to comply with Paula Jones case -

President has no immunity from civil law litigation in federal court against him or her, for acts done before taking office and unrelated to the office.

I know the case is different but they are going to have to explain how the Jones case is not the same as the tax cases.

In a federal case you have a co-equal branch of government serving process on the President. Under the Supremacy Clause it would open a Pandora’s box to allow a single state, indeed a single state prosecutor to require the President to obey its process.

If Joe Biden is elected, do we want to set a precedent that a podunk prosecutor from Mississippi can order he release a whole bunch of stuff for some investigation that he made up that has some recognizable link to Mississippi?

If somebody drags Trump to court he might miss one of his 100 games of golf per year. Or God forbid might miss Fox and friends!!! Even worse might miss OAN channel

Agreeing that I will not be surprised at abundant concurrences and dissents so the decisions end up being something like (2+1+1+1) to (2+1+1); large segments of the public entirely unsatisfied with whatever’s each opinion.

opinions are coming out today at 10 and Tues at 10. When they release the last opinion Roberts doesn’t say “we are now done for this year” but he says something similar.

And I doubt that will happen this week. I think there are 12 or 13 opinions left, and I would be absolutely staggered if they were all released befote the end of June, as is usual practice.

Arguments went much later this year, and justices and court clerks are also having to write and edit the opinions while sheltering at home, many of them (some clerks, anyway, and Justice Kavanaugh) with school-age kids and no child-care. The court as a whole simply can’t work as quickly under these circumstances.