Yes, I recently watched Contagion as well. I wasn’t really talking about how epidemiologists think about themselves.
This is what I was talking about. Here in the US the Scandinavian countries have an unrealistic reputation for doing everything right. Especially Sweden. But it was no time to experiment, and it almost seemed like they were believing their own rep.
We've had plenty of chances to practice, from SARS to Ebola, which is why it was obscene that both nations dealt with it so poorly. We knew what to do. We just thought this time would be different.
LoL
SARS cases worldwide: 8000
Ebola cases in the USA: 4 with 7 imported besides the fact that ebola is completely different from this pandemic in how it is spread and its mortality rate.
We, nor anyone else, ‘knew what to do’.
Doing a lockdown during an ebola outbreak would be just about the worst thing we could do. Each pandemic is different and presents its own unique challenges.
I find it hard to believe that Swedish health authorities spend a lot of time considering how their actions will affect their country’s reputation among American liberals when formulating local responses to crises.
Sweden hasn’t done nothing but they’ve done much less stringent social distancing than most of the other Western nations, and much less strong of a response than very similar Denmark next door, which responded much early and stronger than most other Western nations. They are both at the same day past 1 death/million population
Currently Denmark is running better than the typical Western nation has run at day 14 past the 1 death/million mark - 18% growth and 21.1 deaths/million population.
Sweden slightly worse - 29% growth and 29.8 deaths/million population.
For comparison Spain was at 30% and 77.4, France at 18% and 29.8, and Italy at 16% and 41.5.
Denmark’s early aggressive clearly is showing results.
So far they are managing with a lower death rate than other Western countries for the point in their course, but on the higher end for growth rate. Not as bad as Spain but still. No one can really say where they will end up other than highly likely with more deaths per million than Denmark. How many more? More than Denmark might have as a consequence of economic issues from the early aggressive approach? Probably, but no one can actually say they know at this point.
Uggh, but these numbers are so small. There’s a total of 139 fatalities in Denmark, so one guy getting lucky changes things by a lot.
Here ya’ go! Just the headlines alone say it all. I haven’t seen any article that described the lackluster US/UK approach as “unique”, “relaxed”, “stands apart”, “a different path”, allowing "a liberal amount of personal freedom:, or “time will tell if it’s the right way”. The language in the articles about Sweden is a lot more forgiving then for the US.
This is what Sweden’s unusual approach to the coronavirus pandemic looks like
Video: This is what Sweden's unusual approach to the coronavirus pandemic looks like | The explanation behind the controversial approach. 📕 Read more: https://bit.ly/2wKcwy5 | By World Economic ForumFacebook
Life is carrying on as normal in Sweden - scientists explain the controversial approach
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/sweden-under-fire-for-relaxed-coronavirus-approach-here-s-the-science-behind-it/
Coronavirus: Sweden’s unique approach to fighting the pandemic
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/120664672/coronavirus-swedens-unique-approach-to-fighting-the-pandemic
In the coronavirus fight in Scandinavia, Sweden stands apart
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-the-coronavirus-fight-in-scandinavia-sweden-stands-apart/ar-BB11Qynv
As the rest of Europe lives under lockdown, Sweden keeps calm and carries on
All its neighbours have shut up shop to beat coronavirus but the Swedes insist ‘we are not in quarantine’. Is that the right approach?
Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden’s unusual response to coronavirus
Sweden’s approach to fighting the coronavirus includes a liberal amount of personal freedom
I’m not seeing a lot in those articles about how “we have much to learn from them” from Sweden with their approach as you claimed in the OP.
If anything, there’s a fair amount of skepticism and “let’s wait and see”. Several of the articles do mention the differences (lower population density and greater trust of government) between Sweden and the US/UK that could possibly make it work but there’s not the glowing acceptance of Sweden’s approach implied in the OP.
Who sez this is the case?
(ETA particularly the “Scientist” part and the “holding it up as a model” part.)
That’s because the Swedish approach was based on having a small number of initial cases, and a high degree of social pressure. The American approach was based on having a high level of self-inflicted ignorance and a high degree of libertarianism.
Virtually opposite situations. And of course, the outcomes aren’t actually the same.
Not one of these is praising Sweden. They’re reporting what is happening. The reporting is balanced. They are talking about what is being done and they mention criticism.
Trust me they already are whining about it.
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I posted this on another thread but for what it is worth based on this study of the Spanish flu economies that more aggressively enforce social distancing bounce back more than those that do not:
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There is zero guarantee that herd immunity will save an economy. As a matter of fact I would suggest that a megadeath, even if it’s mostly retirees, could have an even more devastating effect on it.
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Unless you can guarantee that there is zero way to prevent everyone from getting affected by a virus, and there is absolutely no medical treatment for it, forced herd immunity of a potentially fatal disease is immoral.
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This is also what Sweden’s do-nothing approach looks like:
As a comparison, my town of Hoboken, NJ (pop 55,000, total area 1.25 sq miles…I guess “Mile and a Quarter Square City” doesn’t have the same ring to it) pretty much went on lockdown March 13 when we had maybe 1 identified case. Schools closed. Bar, restaurants, coffee shops all closed except takeout or delivery. Grocery stores started limiting occupancy. Parks closed. We are at 152 known cases as of 4/3 (2 deaths).
Given the density of the town and Hudson County in general (it’s effectively a sixth borough of New York City), our proximity to New York, and the sheer number of bars and restaurants, I have to think the rate would be disastrously higher if we did nothing.
It should have taken you about 14-21 days to get from 1 case to 128 cases assuming a doubling every 2-3 days (that’s with no mitigation). So if this is all organic growth, then you are still on a glide path to disaster. But I suspect a lot of these cases are not organic to Hoboken but imported from places like NYC. You don’t get to 1000 infected until days 20-30.
elmwood, did you actually read the things you posted links to? They simply do not say what your OP implies they say.
That was my impression too, reading through those articles. There was a strong undergone of “the Swedes better hope their government is right about this…”. Plus, several of the articles mention the letter to the government signed by 2,000 doctors, warning that the approach Sweden is taking is dangerous.
And here’s what you read if you go past the headlines:
A growing number of Swedish doctors and scientists are raising alarm over the Swedish government’s approach to COVID-19.
Others are convinced that Sweden is hurtling toward a disaster of biblical proportions and that the direction of travel must change.
But some scientists have criticised the Swedish Public Health Agency’s approach as irresponsible during a worldwide pandemic that has already killed over 21,000 people in Europe.
*Linnarsson compared Sweden’s handling of the virus to letting a kitchen fire burn with the intent of extinguishing it later.
“That doesn’t make any sense. And the danger, of course, is that it burns the whole house down,” he said.*
A recent headline in the Danish newspaper Politiken encapsulates the question ricocheting around Europe: “Doesn’t Sweden take the corona crisis seriously?”
Sweden’s method flies in the face of most nations’ stricter strategies.
The infection curve in Sweden has started to rise sharply, and Friday the government tightened the limit on crowds to no more than 50 people.
It has only been in the past couple of days that the death toll has started to increase significantly, rising by a third in a single day on Thursday and Friday, with 92 people now dead and 209 in intensive care.
*There is criticism, however. More than 2,000 Swedish university researchers published a joint letter on Wednesday questioning the Public Health Agency’s position, while the previous week saw leading epidemiologists attack the agency in emails leaked to Swedish television.
“How many lives are they willing to sacrifice so as not to lockdown and risk greater effects on the economy?” asked one, Joacim Rocklöv, a professor of epidemiology at Umeå University.*
*But as Swedes watch the rest of Europe grind to a halt, others are starting to question their country’s unique approach.
“I think people are prone to listen to the recommendations, but in this kind of critical situation, I am not sure that it’s enough,” says Dr Emma Frans*
The overall effect I’m seeing is that these articles are reporting on what the Swedish government is doing - but they are not offering support for it. The only support that’s being given for the loose policy is coming from quotes by Swedish government officials and some “man on the street” interviews from Swedes. And the articles all note that scientists and physicians disagree with the policies and they note that the policies are showing early signs of failing.
There is nothing in these articles to support your claim that people are saying the Swedish approach is good.