There is method in the madness, but it isn’t directed at the current situation. Sweden is going for herd immunity. Protect the vulnerable, push R down, but only to extend the peak. Assume your protection of the vulnerable will keep the medical system from becoming overwhelmed. At the end you have herd immunity. However, they are playing with very sensitive parameters. And a significant set of unknowns. It could easily blow up in their face.
What I don’t see in this is exactly how Sweden is protecting its vulnerable. Nor indeed how they have identified them. It isn’t just age.
But, and this is where the entire planet has a problem. There are only two paths to herd immunity. Vaccine, or infection. The former has the risk and problem that it is probably 18 months away. Do we stay in lockdown for 18 months? Do we think we can protect the vulnerable for this long, or are we just delaying the inevitable?
You could argue that Sweden and the rest of the planet are on the same path, but have chosen different parameters to get there. They are betting on letting the curve rise higher but for shorter. But they think they can keep it under control enough not be be overwhelmed. Most other countries don’t think they can keep from being overwhelmed with the parameters Sweden has chosen, and suspect that Sweden won’t be able to either.
Modelling for Australia from Sydney Uni suggested that the difference between 70% and 80% compliance with the current distancing and restrictions here was the difference between continued exponential growth and containing the numbers. I can’t imagine Sweden would not see similar sensitivity. Apparently, the current stats in Oz suggest we are getting 90% compliance - that is the Corvid-19 case numbers track the 90% compliance prediction curve.
OTOH, nobody seems to be providing a path past the current restrictions. Waiting for a vaccine is all that is held out. That strategy is not without risk itself. A significant number of experts have advised that most people should expect to be infected. Which is the question about the inevitable. Then it comes back to the question about overwhelming of the medical system. And that is probably the dominant question. How do you tune your system to manage that especially when the parameters seems overly sensitive. Caution seems to be the answer. But it is a two edged question. Too successful a lockdown means you can only wait for a vaccine. A slightly less extreme one deliberately allows the infection to spread, but with a load that can be managed. If you get it right. If you don’t, you get overwhelmed. The current goal seems to be one of managing the infection rate, keeping it within a small spread, via lockdown parameters. This is probably not the best answer.
I see death counts attributed to COVID. Have we counts of EXCESS deaths and non-virus hospitalizations? How many Swedes are just too sick to be effective but not close to death? Besides medics, fire crews, police, and similar responders, how impacted are Swedish support services - plumbers, trashmen, road crews, market workers?
It is early to say but Sweden may flattening their curve with their less harsh approach. Per numbers reported on 91-DIVOC their deaths/million on day 16 after having reached 1 death per million is at 4%, third day in a row dropping, was 33% on day 13. Still could be small n noise (especially all the way down to 4%) but three days starts to look like something real. Total deaths/million at 36.1.
Denmark, again earlier to the process than most and firmer, same day 16, is at 16%, day 13 was also 16%. Total deaths of 27.7/million.
It’s still way too early to pass judgment and it certainly was a risky thing to do. Criticism was justified. I doubt the 4% is real. But so far its approach is resulting in a less awful deaths curve than Spain, France, Italy, the U.K., Belgium, the Netherlands, and even Switzerland, have had.
I think that the one you were thinking of is Jared Kushner and he is not a scientist. Sweden is not a model to follow, it is a disaster about to happen and it will turn into a control group for the others who will know thanks to them how much better thier approach was. Well, somebody had to do it, and after the United Kingdom and the Netherlands chickened out it fell on the poor Swedes. I’m sorry for them, but life’s a bitch sometimes…
Pardel-Lux, have you actually bothered to look at the updated per million death rates curves for Sweden in comparison to other countries?
Exactly how much better results have other countries seen with their approaches? Comparing by day after 1 death per millions please.
The flattening of the curve over the last several days there is now a consistent trend, clearly NOT something that can be waved away as statistical noise at this point. They have a slower growth rate at this same point of days after one death per million than neighbor Denmark which embraced the much more aggressive intervention approach very early on, and are on track to top off (for at least this surge) at somewhere less than 50 deaths per million, which might end up very similar to where Denmark tops off. And much better than most other Western nations.
It is really hard to look at their current deaths curve and conclude that the facts on the ground are consistent with your confident assertion. It is much more consistent with the assertion that the Swedes were right, and that targeted interventions can give similar results with less economic (and thus eventually real morbidity and mortality) impacts than broader quarantines.
They did NOT do “nothing” and what they did do may represent what is at least safe to transition to as a first part of phase two after the (first?) surge peaks here.
They did do a certain amount of covid response stuff over the past few weeks, not absolutely nothing. So it’s not surprising if the rate goes down somewhat. But it didn’t go down as much as the other Scandinavian countries, because they’re not doing as much as the other Scandinavian countries
Again, are you actually looking at the curve when you say that? Two days is a weekend. Three to four is more a trend.
But sure dismiss the last several days as just the weekend. You are still faced with that the Sweden has run at 1.24 for its 17 day course since 1 death/million to Denmark’s 1.22 … not a huge difference and, again, better than most other Western countries were running for their first 17 days, much better than some. If they are going to demonstrate how much better everyone else’s approaches are then they are sure taking their sweet time to do so!
Please note, I am surprised they are not doing much worse, and that Denmark is not doing much better. They really shouldn’t be close at all.
It’s often forgotten that lowering the curve is to protect your hospital capacity, not specifically to save the lives of covid-19 patients. So the question is whether more Swedes died per capita in four months compared to Denmark not the exact curve right now of covid-19 deaths.
My WAG now is that there must be some self limiting factor in the virus that we don’t see yet. Further WAG, this virus is crazy more widespread already and mostly harmless except for the unlucky.
The possible slight weekly downturn is really nothing much compared to the it’s-a-weekend dip. And their numbers aren’t as good as other countries who have done more.
That is a major component of what the Swedes were reliant upon - there is a very strong social culture, and people don’t need laws to make them behave in socially responsible ways. OTOH, the reducing rate of increase of deaths and infections can mean lots of different things. Including different rates of testing and reporting. But if taken at face value, they will not achieve herd immunity, so won’t actually end up where they thought.
Acting with social responsibility versus enforced lockdown can mean pretty much the same economic issues. Here where I am in Oz there is no legally enforced lockdown on the populace. Other than closing restaurants and bars, and large gatherings, pretty much everything else is guidance. Even before the enforced closing of restaurants and bars they were doing really badly, and many were on the cusp of making the call to close. The government simply made the choice for them.
The choice for any country about how heavy handed they need to be in managing this will be driven in part by the social culture.
