That person was a toddler as well with prior health problems, or so I’ve heard.
… I think you should have stuck with my version.
When you saw it’s not growing that rapidly, would you mind explaining why you know better than the WHO or CDC? We’ve gone from ‘undiscovered’ to something like 3,000 suspected cases in less than a week.
More like a month according to old samples they’ve tested from this Spring in Mexico. Apparently there was no swine flu before the end of March.
It spreads wicked fast, no doubt. Which is why it’s not like SARS or avian flu. On the other hand, I think I’d rather catch this one than either of those. But I dunno for sure. Ask me again this time next year.
There is a confirmed case in a hospital about an hour away from here. It does worry me that this is showing up in so many areas.
Then again, I read waaaaaaaaaaay too much Stephen KIng.
And I will not go to Vegas. I’ll wash my clothes in a washtub, too.
Joe Biden was alarmist on the Today show and caused a ruckus. I’m not a politician and do not need to hew to the same rules. I agreed with what he said, but don’t need to cross town on a subway, or country on an airplane.
I wonder if some of the response we have seen so far from the government is a knee-jerk reaction after Katrina?
Katrina was an appalling debacle and of course a serious black-eye for Republicans. The current government and agencies will now want to be sure they respond when they see a hurricane (as a metaphor for whatever potential disaster) waaay before it proves itself to be an imminent danger.
And again, far more than a hurricane something like this has staggering potential to cause spectacular suffering. Maybe this one will prove to be “meh” in hindsight but who wants to roll those dice? Some things 99% is not good enough. Even overreacting 99 times out of a hundred do any of us want to face that hundredth infection that puts millions and millions six feet under?
Wow. Marley23 really had me convinced I’d misread your post.
Really? An epidemiologist, are you? I gave the definitions of epidemic and pandemic above; neither term means “fuckloads of ill people.” Why do you want to substitute your own stupid definitions for the very real, and rather more meaningful ones used by the people whose job it is to study the spread of illnesses?
The first you do not know, and the second is irrelevant. Even if we assume it is no more lethal than regular flu, the complete lack of immunity in the population means that it could easily kill millions. It appears at the moment that we have not had human-to-human transmission outside Mexico, and that’s encouraging; this does not, however, mean that it can’t happen, nor does it mean that the danger is not real.
I repeat: the raw numbers are not what is important at this stage; what is important is how it is spreading. Both governments and individuals need to be aware of the implications, and alert to what needs to be done when we better understand the disease. Nothing we have been told so far has been anything but sensible.
Though I agree with you on most points, I’ll have to correct you on this one: The current WHO-level indicates there is “widespread human infection”. To be more exact:
gonzomax’s problem seems to be a basic incomprehension of the WHO alert levels and what they’re used for.
However, it’s spreading. And it’s new. The worst that could happen would be for it to mutate into a deadly version while continuing or increasing its current spread rate. (WHO officials said it couldn’t be contained in a country any more).
Not that I’m an expert or anything, because I’m not, but it seems to me this is a lot like the Y2K panic.
There is a real risk.
That risk is being blown out of proportion by news media who won’t say no to a “good” story, which is defined as one that gets viewers or sells newspapers.
The risk that actually exists is being addressed by a lot of smart, well-trained people, working very hard, mostly unseen.
The result is that things will most likely turn out fine - not because there was never anything to worry about, but because the risk was dealt with.
And some people will be left wondering what to do with all the bottled water and Spam they stockpiled in their basements.
Yes, but I think the key word there is “into”. We’ve had human to human infections into other countries, but not (as at phase 6) community-level outbreaks, i.e. human-to-human transmission within those countries. To the best of my knowledge (although I’ll stand to be corrected) all known cases at this point involve people who had themselves been to Mexico. This is certainly true in the UK, where I am. So no, I stand by my statement that as far as we know at the moment, all human-to-human transmission has occurred within Mexico, and that the WHO level reflects this.
I can’t speak for the US media (although I did see a Daily Show segment where there were some humourously overblown clips shown), but I think for the most part the media isn’t doing too badly on this one, in no small part because the CDC and WHO have been very clear about what’s going on. I don’t think the reporting is any worse than normal, put it that way.
I concur.
Sadly, it’s already taking place: My mom (who, like me, lives in Mexico City) is complaining that cases outside of Mexico, for instance in Germany, have quickly been released from the hospital.
We’re lucky because medical scientists have been able to learn from the past. And, however thankless the general population is, they will hopefully continue to watch out for diseases like this one.
Yup, it’s OTC here, although it’s pretty expensive - about $80 bucks for a course, from what they’re reporting - and you apparently do need to front up with “flu-like” symptoms, although how they gauge that I have no idea. There is some controversy over its ready availabilty here: apparently the worry is that if people panic and start eating it like lollies, it’ll make it easier for the bug to develop a resistant strain. Still, there doesn’t seem to be a mad rush here, despite a number of confirmed cases: after the first couple of news days of OMG TEH VIRUS111, after it became clear that the few cases here were fairly isolated and hopefully quickly contained, the coverage has been more balanced and there’s wariness but no panic.
Well… you say potato and I say… ummm… potatoe?
I guess you’re right about the community-level outbreaks (the level 3 to level 4 transition seems similar). I don’t know about any infected people who haven’t been in Mexico, either.
Still, one thing is certain: gonzomax has no clue about what he’s talking about.
There’s a case in the UK of a guy who hadn’t been to Mexico. He isn’t confirmed yet, but is quoted as probable swine flu. He has had contact with a couple who honeymooned in Mexico.
Incorrect. The student at Notre Dame University in Indiana has, apparently, never been to Mexico although his case has been confirmed by the CDC as swine flu. On a happy note, the student apparently has recovered from it with no complications.
Yep, I’ve been trying to get through to the board for half an hour to retract that, but it’s been down. I stand corrected, there have indeed been human-to-human transmissions in both Mexico and the US, and probably the UK.
You know, by that definition, 3 people getting the flu that mrAru had back in november and immediately one flying off to canada, one to mexico and one to germany would qualify as a phase 5 pandemic.
Again, I say a big resounding MEH.
I have no problem with WHO keeping track of cases, but I wish they would shut down the damned panic mongering news programs and other media blitzes.
Well, that’s not entirely it, it also has to show sustained transmission between humans. But spreading widely outside the origin area is a definite part of the definition.
