I’m not really sure what to make of this. One the one hand, giving up on PA and MI is almost conceding the election as not getting at least on of those states seriously limits a path to victory in the Electoral College for DJT. On the other hand, it makes me think this may only be temporary or that there is some other strategy at work.
Bottom line, it is a strange thing to do this far out from Election Day.
Maybe, but of all the things a campaign spends money on, TV ads seem low on the list of effectiveness. (Currently. In the old days, I would admit TV was king.)
If they’ve given up on Michigan and Pennsylvania, then they’ve practically conceded because they’ll need every one of the other swing states to win it. Which they won’t do.
I suspect the money is being diverted to shenanigans.
To counter reducing the advertising buys, Trump is betting on showing up on Fox for free whenever he wants. Hey, it worked last time…
I think they’re focusing their spending on digital (mostly Facebook and YouTube).
This. Bill Stepien supposedly hates tv ad buying and prefers to concentrate money for online ads in social media, where the right has huge communities. They are far less expensive than television and can be targeted toward individuals, interests, and states with the new tools that have been developed over the past few years. That makes online advertising ideal.
It’s also basically invisible if you don’t live in the right-wing bubble. I don’t, so I have literally no idea what they are seeing or how many or when. I’ve seen articles about the 2016 campaign saying how effective they were in getting out the base. Not sure anybody really can quantify that, but it seems logical.
They’re not reaching independents or persuadables that way (granted, there are probably damn few of them left now), so if he’s off the air in two key states, so much the better.
To at least some extent they are. I see Trump|Pence ads all over the internet, and I’m not in the right wing bubble. I’m not sure, but I think I’ve even seen some right here on the SDMB.
Yeah, I’ve seen some Trump ads, especially on YouTube, and I live in freakin’ Oregon. I think they’re targeting these spots with less than surgical precision.
I definitely have. Oddly enough right before a Biden ad. But that makes sense in Florida even if we are not the targeted demographic in some ways (but are in others, specifically, age, since people younger and older than the SDMB as a whole are more likely to be Biden supporters.)
Not really. It just proves the fix is totally in in those states. No need to get real voters when you can supply fake ones more cheaply. Watch out for massive fraud, vote supression, “lost” ballots and found fraudulent ones, etc.
Or at least that’s my interpretation of the tea leaves. Switching to all-online all-hard RW media buys is also a very likely explanation. Which would have them appear to all but disappear for those outside the RW bubble.
I don’t think it means the fix is in. I also don’t think it means they are giving up. I think it’s more a reflection of the declining importance of TV and people cutting the cord.
Kinks:>
Paranoia, the destroyer
I’m at least partially tongue in cheek here. But whenever your opposition does something that seems inexplicable, that merely means you’re not looking hard enough at more obscure possibilities.
No need for obscure possibilities. The Trump campaign has burned through more than $800 million since the beginning of the year. They have too many battlegrounds they need to compete on. They’re putting a lot of their resources in Florida (a must-win for Trump) and probably see Minnesota or Wisconsin as more likely to flip than PA or MI.
I’m speculating that they are trying to hold back a reserve fund to pay the lawyers starting 4 November.
He can’t (legally) use campaign funds to fight lawsuits. OTOH, he can sure set up a gofundme and bilk the rubes for another few Bil.
Can they use it to pay off porn stars?
Seven weeks to go. Lots of polls.
| State | Dates | Pollster | Sample | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 8/30/2020 - 9/4/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 830 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
| Arizona | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 470 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Arizona | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 901 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| Arizona | 9/8/2020 - 9/10/2020 | OH Predictive Insights | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% |
| Arizona | 9/9/2020 - 9/11/2020 | YouGov | 1106 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% |
| Arizona | 9/10/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Gravis Marketing | 684 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 48% | D + 2% |
| Colorado | 8/28/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 11% |
| Colorado | 8/28/2020 - 9/1/2020 | Global Strategy Group | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 12% |
| Colorado | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 10% |
| Colorado | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 657 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Florida | 8/26/2020 - 9/3/2020 | GQR Research (GQRR) | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1093 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 3% |
| Florida | 8/31/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Marist College | 1047 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Florida | 8/31/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Marist College | 766 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | Even |
| Florida | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 1144 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| Florida | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 3914 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 8/30/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 2% |
| Florida | 9/7/2020 - 9/8/2020 | St. Pete Polls | 2689 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| Florida | 9/11/2020 - 9/12/2020 | Florida Atlantic University | 631 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 0% |
| Florida | 9/10/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 428 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 9/10/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 428 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Florida | 9/10/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Monmouth University | 428 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| Georgia | 8/20/2020 - 8/30/2020 | Harris Insights & Analytics | 1616 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 6% |
| Georgia | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 1% |
| Georgia | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 1486 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% |
| Indiana | 9/3/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Change Research | 1033 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 39% | Donald Trump 53% | R + 14% |
| Iowa | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 47% | R + 2% |
| Maine | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 54% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 14% |
| Maine CD-1 | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 433 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 35% | D + 23% |
| Maine CD-2 | 8/25/2020 - 8/28/2020 | LOC Wick | 400 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 2% |
| Maine CD-2 | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 367 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 4% |
| Michigan | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 967 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 11% |
| Michigan | 9/1/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Glengariff Group | 600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 5% |
| Michigan | 9/2/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 1000 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% |
| Michigan | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 876 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 6% |
| Michigan | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 1455 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% |
| Michigan | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Minnesota | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 649 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| Minnesota | 9/4/2020 - 9/7/2020 | SurveyUSA | 553 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 9% |
| Minnesota | 9/8/2020 - 9/10/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 814 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 9% |
| Minnesota | 9/9/2020 - 9/11/2020 | YouGov | 1087 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 9% |
| Minnesota | 9/4/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Morning Consult | 643 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% |
| Montana | 8/30/2020 - 9/5/2020 | Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates | 800 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 7% |
| Nevada | 9/8/2020 - 9/10/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 462 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 4% |
| New Hampshire | 9/8/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 445 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 3% |
| New Jersey | 9/4/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Emerson College | 500 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 58% | Donald Trump 40% | D + 18% |
| North Carolina | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 951 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 43% | Donald Trump 44% | R + 1% |
| North Carolina | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 442 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 2% |
| North Carolina | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 1592 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 47% | D + 1% |
| North Carolina | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 48% | Even |
| North Carolina | 9/7/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research | 1000 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 49% | R + 1% |
| North Carolina | 9/9/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Trafalgar Group | 1046 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 2% |
| North Carolina | 9/9/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SSRS | 893 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 5% |
| North Carolina | 9/9/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SSRS | 787 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| North Carolina | 9/10/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SurveyUSA | 596 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 47% | Even |
| Ohio | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 1963 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 45% | Donald Trump 50% | R + 5% |
| Oklahoma | 9/2/2020 - 9/8/2020 | SoonerPoll.com | 486 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 35% | Donald Trump 60% | R + 24% |
| Oregon | 9/3/2020 - 9/8/2020 | DHM Research | 502 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 12% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1053 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/3/2020 - 9/6/2020 | TargetSmart/William & Mary | 835 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 7% |
| Pennsylvania | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 829 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 4% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 2227 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/31/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Marist College | 1039 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 8% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/31/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Marist College | 771 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 9% |
| Pennsylvania | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1600 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 49% | Donald Trump 46% | D + 3% |
| Texas | 9/1/2020 - 9/2/2020 | Public Policy Polling | 743 V | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 47% | Donald Trump 48% | R + 1% |
| Texas | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 2829 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 46% | Donald Trump 46% | Even |
| Virginia | 8/28/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Virginia Commonwealth University | 693 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 53% | Donald Trump 39% | D + 14% |
| Wisconsin | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Marquette University Law School | 688 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 4% |
| Wisconsin | 8/30/2020 - 9/3/2020 | Marquette University Law School | 802 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 8/30/2020 - 9/4/2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 670 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 9% |
| Wisconsin | 9/4/2020 - 9/6/2020 | Change Research | 501 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 44% | D + 6% |
| Wisconsin | 8/29/2020 - 9/7/2020 | Morning Consult | 791 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 8% |
| Wisconsin | 8/28/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group | 1200 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 8/30/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Morning Consult | 799 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 9% |
| Wisconsin | 9/6/2020 - 9/8/2020 | Emerson College | 823 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 51% | Donald Trump 45% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 8/31/2020 - 9/9/2020 | Morning Consult | 816 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 8% |
| Wisconsin | 9/1/2020 - 9/10/2020 | Morning Consult | 797 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 9/8/2020 - 9/10/2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | 760 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 48% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 5% |
| Wisconsin | 9/2/2020 - 9/11/2020 | Morning Consult | 797 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 9/3/2020 - 9/12/2020 | Morning Consult | 769 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 9/4/2020 - 9/13/2020 | Morning Consult | 774 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 50% | Donald Trump 43% | D + 7% |
| Wisconsin | 9/9/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SSRS | 916 RV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 41% | D + 11% |
| Wisconsin | 9/9/2020 - 9/13/2020 | SSRS | 816 LV | Joseph R. Biden Jr. 52% | Donald Trump 42% | D + 10% |
I’m really liking that consistent lead in WI. If he can keep that, MN and PA (MI being pretty close to a lock) in his column, Biden will have a good night. I would love if FL would go blue — if for no other reason than to deflate any effort by Trump to preemptively declare victory — but in my mind I’m resigned to Trump winning it. Even with FL, Trump has a difficult path to victory in this landscape.