In my experience, ending up in dangerous situations abroad rarely comes out of actual stupidity, idiotic naivety, or willful ignorance. I’ve seen a lot of people get in trouble in some dangerous places, and it usually happens when they are quite familiar with a place and become a little more comfortable.
When you are on a week long vacation to an unfamiliar place, it’s normal to be on high alert the whole time, as you are constantly experiencing new things. But cognitively, we just aren’t designed to maintain that for long periods of time. Eventually, you start feeling comfortable, you make local friends, and you start feeling like you have a handle on the small risks you see people around you taking on a daily basis. A place also becomes a bit more like your "real life’, and you become less likely to take extraordinary measures to avoid what you perceive as a manageable risk.
To give an example, my friend Anna, an American in the rural Cameroonian town where I served as a Peace Corps volunteer, took an overnight train up from the capital after a long and exhausting trip. From the nearest train station, it was a ten hour journey on hot, overcrowded, unreliable minibuses to get back to our town. To make things worse, every time you’d change busses would require a one to four hour wait while the next bus waited to fill up, so the trip would have to be spread between two long, unpleasant days with an expensive hotel stay in between.
Our local bus service, however, had just started offering a direct bus, using a spacious new vehicle that went straight from the train station to our doors. This service avoided the long uncertain waits, allowed you to make the trip in one day, and didn’t require you to sit smashed up against a sweaty stranger for hours. Since the bus left directly as the train arrived, you’d buy your non-refundable tickets on the train. Anna, of course, bought one.
Well, the train was a little late, and Anna realized to get home, she’d be on the bus for a few hours after dark. After fourteen hours on a third world train, she really, really just wanted to get home and be done with it, and she was looking forward to using the comfortable bus. Furthermore, buying another ticket and staying in a hotel would cost something like $50, which is a chunk when your living allowance is $120 and you’ve just spend a lot of money traveling. Broke and exhausted, Anna had just decided to risk it-- after all dozens of people she knew were getting on that bus without a second thought. Just then a friend from our town spotted her and begged to buy her ticket, as he had pressing business and absolutely needed to be home that night. So Anna sold him her ticket and took the long journey on local busses.
Long story short, the bus Anna had a ticket for was robbed by bandits that night. Nobody was killed, but it was the bandits were armed and dangerous.
Anna wasn’t being stupid and she wasn’t ignorant. We all knew that road was unsafe, especially at night. I am sure you would probably say “Well, I wouldn’t be in that situation in the first place, and if I was I’d just put a private car on my credit card or stay in a nice safe hotel until I found a reasonable form a transit!”, but the reality is that Anna was there, she had taken the same journey dozens of times, and it didn’t even occur to her to take extraordinary measures to deal with what was, to her, a fairly ordinary situation. What looks like an extreme risk from the outside can, when you are broke and exhausted and in a familiar place, look like a manageable one.
I don’t know the biker’s history, but from the story it seems like they were in a similar situation. They were out longer than they planned, thought they were taking a manageable risk, and ended up getting unlucky.