Syria: Is there any way this can end well?

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

@BrainGlutton

@FoieGrasIsEvil

I think the US should work up a Number 6 on Syria.

Spirit the whole country away to The Village?

I’m guessing more like this (at :16).

[Terr]

@BrainGlutton

Read the article, not clear what you mean. What ethnic, as distinct (if distinguishable) from religious, divisions do you see among Arabic-speaking Syrians?

? The main one that everyone knows is the Alawite ruling minority vs. the Sunni majority. Alawi are an “ethnic group” as well as a religious denomination.

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@Kolak_of_Twilo

I’m guessing more like this (at :16).

I would have guessed that FoisGras was referring to sending in Seal Team #6.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

Could be. The way he phrased it though that was the first thing came to my mind.

[BrainGlutton]

@Kolak_of_Twilo

I’m guessing more like this (at :16).

I like my idea better.

“You are Number Six.”

“We are not a number! We are a free country!”

“HAW-HAW-HAW-HAW!!! Since fuckin’ when?! HAW-HAW-HAW!!!”

[carnivorousplant]

Who is Number One?

America, fuck yeah!
Sorry, sorry. Carry on.

[Kolak_of_Twilo]

@BrainGlutton

HAW-HAW-HAW-HAW!!!

When did you turn into Jack Chick?

[BrainGlutton]

@Kolak_of_Twilo

When did you turn into Jack Chick?

I got lazy. :o Coulda got creative, but how would you transcribe #2 gloating? [ball returned]

[Zakalwe]

@BrainGlutton

Is there any way that can be avoided?

“Off the top of my head, I’d say you’re looking at a Boesky, a Jim Brown, a Miss Daisy, two Jethros and a Leon Spinks, not to mention the biggest Ella Fitzgerald ever!”

Sorry, couldn’t resist. Syria’s pretty much fucked at this point. Total crackdown or total chaos. Not much in between.

[BrainGlutton]

Robert Dreyfuss: The United States should stay out of Syria.

[BrainGlutton]

Syria accepts Kofi Annan’s peace plan.

“The Syrian government has written to the joint special envoy Kofi Annan, accepting his six-point plan, endorsed by the United Nations Security Council,” Ahmad Fawzi said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Mr Annan views this as an important initial step that could bring an end to the violence and the bloodshed, provide aid to the suffering, and create an environment conducive to a political dialogue that would fulfil the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people,” he added.

Annan, who is in China to seek Beijing’s support for his peace proposal, had written to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad asking Damascus to “put its commitments into immediate effect”.

His plan calls on Assad to withdraw troops and heavy weapons from protest hubs, a daily two-hour humanitarian ceasefire, access to all areas affected by the fighting and a UN-supervised halt to all clashes.

Annan is due to in Baghdad on Thursday to discuss how to move forward with the plan with Arab League leaders.

Let’s all . . . do whatever Muslims do instead of crossing their fingers . . .

[BrainGlutton]

Robert Dreyfuss writes in The Nation:

Here’s my view on the Syria crisis. President Assad, whose father ruled with an iron hand for three decades, inherited a not-so-ideological, sectarian regime determined to stay in power at all costs. Since the start of the uprising, which was sparked by the Arab Spring in neighboring countries, Assad has cracked down, hard, and he’s showed every intention of using violent force to remain in control. Those on the outside who thought he’d be toppled à la Egypt’s President Mubarak, without a fight, were sadly misguided from the beginning. There’s no reason to believe, now, that he’ll go quietly, as did Yemen’s President Saleh eventually. All indications are that the regime’s military and security forces are pretty much holding together, especially the Alawite command that is loyal to Assad.

The opposition in Syria is a hodgepodge of individuals, groups and organizations, including the nefarious Muslim Brotherhood, that is increasingly motivated by sectarian feelings. It is mostly, or almost entirely Sunni, and for a year now there have been reports of sectarian massacres carried out by both sides, atrocities that echo the events in Iraq in 2006–07. So far, what’s happened in Syria hasn’t reached anywhere near the level of intensity of the uprising in Iraq. The opposition, scattered and divided, doesn’t know what it wants beyond Assad’s departure. Meanwhile, the sectarian nature of the opposition has led Alawites, Shiites and Christians in Syria to maintain support for Assad. To its credit, the Obama administration has recognized that it doesn’t really have the option of directly supporting the Syrian rebels, despite Hillary Clinton’s failed efforts to unify the opposition and despite reports that the United States is facilitating the supply of arms to the rebels by Saudi Arabia and other kleptocratic, anti-Iran states in the Persian Gulf.

<snip>

If real civil wars breaks out in Syria, sympathetic civil wars are likely in Lebanon and Iraq. Iraqi Sunnis will support Sunni fighters in Syria. Iran will tighten its grip on the government in Baghdad, and Iraq might split. Saudi Arabia, in its anti-Iran frenzy, will massively support Sunni fighters and tribes in Syria and Iraq. The entire region could go up in flames. In Lebanon, there are already signs of spillover, and Hezbollah there could react by either seizing power in Beirut or provoking Israel.

Any way this can end well?!

[Pleonast]

The best-case realistic scenario is a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in Syria with only minimal spillover into Lebanon and Iraq. The Sunnis will win because they have numbers and money on their side (Iran will be bankrupt before the end of the year). There won’t be any open conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia because it wouldn’t gain them anything that the proxy war won’t. Likewise, I don’t think there’ll be much cross-border conflict between the various states. Ethnic cleansing from both sides is unavoidable at this point.

It’s not quite impossible that a Syrian general kills Assad in exchange for a cushy asylum for himself and family in Qatar or Bahrain.

It’s also not quite impossible that Turkey provides air cover to the Syria insurgents. They won’t ask NATO for support and wouldn’t get it anyway (it’d anger Russia too much).

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@BrainGlutton

Any way this can end well?!

It might keep them too busy fighting each other to attack Israel (or the USA) for a while.

[BrainGlutton]

@Pleonast

. . . (Iran will be bankrupt before the end of the year).

What makes you think that?!

[Pleonast]

Sorry, no easily-linkable cites, but my news sources are NPR, the Economist and the BBC, so that’s where I’m getting this stuff.

Reasons for Iranian financial collapse this year:

1. The European oil embargo will cut off the Iran’s largest market, greatly decreasing the amount of oil they can sell.
2. The U.S. financial embargo prevents banks and insurance companies from dealing with Iran, which means they have to sell their oil at a discount to the market price.
3. The global recession has reduced the global demand for oil, so even with Iranian oil mostly off the market, the global supply is greater than the demand. The price of oil will drop.
4. “Bankruptcy” is probably hyperbolic, but the Iranian economy and government are very dependent on oil revenues. With Iran selling less oil, at below market rate (which is dropping anyway) means there’s going to be a lot of economic pain in Iran later this year.

[BrainGlutton]

@Pleonast

Sorry, no easily-linkable cites, but my news sources are NPR, the Economist and the BBC, so that’s where I’m getting this stuff.

Reasons for Iranian financial collapse this year:

1. The European oil embargo will cut off the Iran’s largest market, greatly decreasing the amount of oil they can sell.
2. The U.S. financial embargo prevents banks and insurance companies from dealing with Iran, which means they have to sell their oil at a discount to the market price.
3. The global recession has reduced the global demand for oil, so even with Iranian oil mostly off the market, the global supply is greater than the demand. The price of oil will drop.
4. “Bankruptcy” is probably hyperbolic, but the Iranian economy and government are very dependent on oil revenues. With Iran selling less oil, at below market rate (which is dropping anyway) means there’s going to be a lot of economic pain in Iran later this year.

That . . . is encouraging from an American POV, I suppose, but also disturbing. A bankrupt or hurting Iran could be a lot more desperate, therefore more dangerous/volatile, than it is now.

[ralph124c]

This is just the latest in the 1300 year old Sunni-Shia war. I really see no reason for anybody to intervene, because it will continue until the majority wipes out the minority. As for the Christians and Alawites, they had better stay out of it.

[Ramira]

@ralph124c

This is just the latest in the 1300 year old Sunni-Shia war. I really see no reason for anybody to intervene, because it will continue until the majority wipes out the minority. As for the Christians and Alawites, they had better stay out of it.

??? You know the regime, they are led and dominated by the Alaouites, no? A bizarre remark.

[Noone_Special]

@BrainGlutton

Any way this can end well?!

In a word: No.

Lots of dead Sunnis, followed by lots of dead Alawites is the way it’s probably going to go. How many dead on each side depends on how soon the breaking point comes (and right now it seems as if it may be impending; but it could easily take another year, too.)

ETA:

@ralph124c

This is just the latest in the 1300 year old Sunni-Shia war. I really see no reason for anybody to intervene, because it will continue until the majority wipes out the minority. As for the Christians and Alawites, they had better stay out of it.

@Ramira

??? You know the regime, they are led and dominated by the Alaouites, no? A bizarre remark.

I suspect ralph124c meant Kurds