Tampa Bay interested in Bonds.

[Hawkeyeop]

@storyteller0910

You have played Mafia with me, right? That was the short version.

I hope you’re right; I really do. History suggests that the Rays best players will end up in Boston, New York, or Los Angeles in a few years. But I hope I’m wrong.

Baseball is flush with money right now. That doesn’t mean the Rays will choose to spend to keep their players, but they can if they so choose.

@storyteller0910

I understand your point, but I think you’re overstating your case. In Boston, of the nine guys likely to make up the everyday lineup, only three - Lowell (34), Ramirez (36) and Varitek (36) are really old. Ortiz is 32, and coming off the best season of his career; he’s not going anywhere. J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo are 32, not exactly Methuselahs. But they also have Youkilis (29), Pedroia (24), Ellsbury (24), Coco Crisp (28), and eventually, Jed Lowrie (24), who slugged .506 at shortstop in AAA. As for the Yankees, yeah, their lineup is old. But Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson are both pretty well regarded and are on their way, and Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera are still quite young. Alex Rodriguez is not likely to decline for the next five years at least. And their rotation: Wang (28), Chamberlain (22), Hughes (22), Kennedy (23) - that’s a group that will be together, and in its prime, for years. And every one of those guys has proven that they can succeed at the major league level - Kennedy is the worst of them, and he had an ERA of 1.89 in New York last year!

That paragraph starts with how old the Red Sox are and finishes with how good the Yankees young pitching is. It is kind of impressive. At any rate, let’s start with the Red Sox’s lineup.

Manny has slowed down significantly already. He does all the little things poorly, when you are hitting 40+ home-runs that’s fine, but when you are in the low 20’s it isn’t. Varitek plays a position were people don’t age well, and the Red Sox have nothing behind him. Lowell had a career year last year. He is highly unlikely to do that again. Drew’s power has disappeared, and Lugo has been awful since he got dealt to LA. Pedroria had a nice rookie season, but there isn’t much projectability to him. I think if he stays as good as he was last year the Red Sox would be happy. Crisp and Youk are league average players that aren’t likely to get much better. Ellsbury is a nice young player, but he might not develop much power, which would leave him limited. Lowrie might be able to play short, but he might not, which would just leave the Red Sox with another pretty good young 2nd baseman. You mentioned depth with the Rays, but the Red Sox have nothing other then a 4th outfielder and one pretty good middle infield prospect in the minors, and they have a lot of injury prone players. If Manny and Drew get hurt, not an unfathomable possibility, what does their outfield look like? How bout Varitek? Youk? This leaves you with a lineup that is highly reliant on David Ortiz. You say Ortiz is only 32, but how old was Mo Vaughn when he collapsed? Cecil Fielder? That type of player does not age well at all, and can fall in a hurry. I just don’t see this lineup as invulnerable.

A similar argument can be made for the Yankees. Yes, Arod will be great, but what if he is more 2006 then 2007? What if the majority of Posada, Damon, Matsui, Jeter, Abreu and Giambi show their age? The Yankees have nothing close to being ready to replace any of them.

@storyteller0910

Of those three guys, one of them, David Price, has never thrown a pitch in professional baseball. Ever. He’s 22, the same age as Hughes and Chamberlain. Do you see why suggesting that the Rays young talent is superior to that of the Yankees or the Red Sox is dicey? Would you really prefer Price, Wade Davis, and Desmond Jennings over Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain? Over Bucholtz - the best pitching prospect in baseball according to BP - Lester, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is only 27 and almost guaranteed to improve in the coming year? (And Justin Masterson, too).

Well if we are discussing best young staffs, we have to consider Kazmir who still is under 25. We have to consider Garza as well. I’d probably take Kazmir over any starter on either the Red Sox or Yankees, though certainly arguments can be made. I’m also assuming you mean McGee as the third guy for Rays, since Jennings, while a top prospect, isn’t exactly a pitcher. That is five top young pitchers, not 3, and those aren’t the only ones the Rays have. None of those 5, unlike say Chamberlin, has any history of arm problems. The risk for the Yankees and the Red Sox isn’t that the youngsters can’t pitch, it is that they could get hurt. The Rays likewise have that risk, but it is muted given their depth. The depth will also present itself in a much improved Rays bullpen.

@storyteller0910

And of course, the main point is: if Manny Ramirez stops hitting, the Red Sox have the financial resources to go out and replace him with top-of-the-line talent. They won’t even have to give up Bucholtz or Lester to do it, because someone will be frantic to unload a contract. The Rays simply do not have that flexibility. If one of their gambles - Pena, or Longoria, or whoever, doesn’t pan out, they can’t carry the kind of payroll the Yankees or Red Sox can, and if they go after a more cost-effective option, they’ll have to give up one of those good young prospects to get it.

Just look at the free agent classes of the last couple years. For the most part teams are signing their own young stars. Sure, there are still a couple of teams that will trade away stars rather then resign them, but it is becoming a much shorter list. When was the last time, a team traded a star just to dump the contract? Who was the last top free agent to switch teams? It isn’t as easy at it used to be to buy talent.

@storyteller0910

And finally - the Rays lineup is going to have at least three spots well below league average as hitters: Bartlett is well below average, Navarro is a terrible hitter, and the Gomes/Floyd/Baldelli hydra is not going to produce an OPS+ of 100 and probably will collectively contribute fewer than 500 at bats. No one in the Yankees projected lineup is as bad as any of those three; it’s not even close. The Yankees could slip by 10% and still outscore the Rays.

Baldelli had an OPS of 872 in 2006 (Last year was a lost season). Floyd’s was 795 last year, and Gomes 782. Between mixing and matching the three, I think you can cobble together a league average outfielder. Bartlett’s offensive numbers are subpar, but not awful for a shortstop and he is a plus with the glove. Navarro, eh, maybe someday he’ll start hitting again.

@storyteller0910

Payroll isn’t infinite. If you give Bonds $10M this year, that’s $10M you can’t commit to someone else. It means Johnny Gomes has to play the outfield, and he shouldn’t. And it means you’ll be expected to try to win in the short term - why sign a 40 year-old-outfielder with injury problems and baggage if you’re not trying to win - which is a good recipe for bad decisions.
My whole point here is - they’re not making the playoffs this year, with or without Bonds. The gap between Tampa Bay and the top two teams in that division is massive, and the Rays’ youth is not so much better than the youth of the other teams as to make a sudden, dramatic shift in that dynamic likely or even possible. Given that, why blow $10M on a rental of a player who won’t get you to the playoffs but will retard your financial flexibility and disrupt the really interesting team you’re developing?

Well because it isn’t blowing money, and it won’t disrupt the development of the team. You act like they are just throwing $10 million away. If they win more games, they will make more money. They will sell more tickets and merchandise this season, and they will have more advance sales for the following season. 10 million more, maybe not, but certainly some. Plus, he would likely take at bats away from Floyd/Gomes. That isn’t exactly stunting your future. One year contracts are, by definition, not that risky. It isn’t like I’m arguing to spend 55 million on Gil Meche.

[storyteller0910]

@Hawkeyeop

Baseball is flush with money right now. That doesn’t mean the Rays will choose to spend to keep their players, but they can if they so choose.

In principle this may be true, but it has not proven true in practice. Look, everyone likes Scott Kazmir, right? In a few years, he will become a free agent. He’ll be 27-ish. He’s a left-handed pitcher and a pretty legit #1 starter. I’d say it’s almost certain he’ll command $18 million per year at that point. Will the Rays give him that kind of money? Maybe, but more probably not. Because the Yankees, or the Red Sox, or the Mets, will offer him $19.5M if they have to - and there is a certain point after which the Rays cannot compete financially. Even in an era where money is flowing freely, they are still at a substantial competitive disadvantage relative to those teams. So by the time David Price is ready (assuming he is), and Evan Longoria has matured into a real star (assuming he does), they lose Kazmir to someone who can afford to pay him.

Manny has slowed down significantly already. He does all the little things poorly, when you are hitting 40+ home-runs that’s fine, but when you are in the low 20’s it isn’t. Varitek plays a position were people don’t age well, and the Red Sox have nothing behind him. Lowell had a career year last year. He is highly unlikely to do that again. Drew’s power has disappeared, and Lugo has been awful since he got dealt to LA.

etc.

You do realize that this lineup that you’re trashing scored more runs than all but two teams in the American League last year, right? I don’t doubt that one or more of the players you mention will decline. It’s very nearly certain. But it is also very nearly certain that Ellsbury and Pedroia will perform better than they did last year, and that someone will have a better year than last year (Drew, is my best guess). It’s also certain that if, for some reason, the Red Sox have trouble scoring runs, they will trade for a big bat. Or two. Or three. The Rays, at least historically, have not shown the ability to do this.

A similar argument can be made for the Yankees. Yes, Arod will be great, but what if he is more 2006 then 2007?

Then he’ll be one of the best hitters in baseball, instead of the best.

What if the majority of Posada, Damon, Matsui, Jeter, Abreu and Giambi show their age? The Yankees have nothing close to being ready to replace any of them.

“Hi, this is Brian Cashman, calling for Mr. Krivsky. Wayne! How are you? Sorry to hear that you guys are in fourth place this year. Yeah, tough break on that Griffey, Jr, injury. Who could have seen that coming? Listen, Wayne, I know Adam Dunn is hitting free agency after this year. Jesus, can you imagine what a 28-year-old hitter with five straight 40-home-run seasons, is going to get on the open market? Listen, Wayne, I’ve got this outfielder down at AAA, Austin Jackson, and a pretty good pitcher named Alan Horne. How about you send Dunn and his contract for the rest of this year over here, and we’ll worry about his money for next year. We’ll give you Horne and Jackson and Ross Ohlendorf. OK, you think about it - but don’t think for too long.”

More seriously, if your biggest hope for the Rays is that Posada, Damon, Matsui, Jeter, Abreu, and Giambi (and neither Jeter nor Abreu is especially old or especially likely to decline) will all suddenly become league-average performers in the same year, then that’s not much to bank on.

Well if we are discussing best young staffs, we have to consider Kazmir who still is under 25. We have to consider Garza as well. I’d probably take Kazmir over any starter on either the Red Sox or Yankees, though certainly arguments can be made.

Really? Over Josh Beckett? Really?

I’m also assuming you mean McGee as the third guy for Rays, since Jennings, while a top prospect, isn’t exactly a pitcher. That is five top young pitchers, not 3, and those aren’t the only ones the Rays have. None of those 5, unlike say Chamberlin, has any history of arm problems. The risk for the Yankees and the Red Sox isn’t that the youngsters can’t pitch, it is that they could get hurt. The Rays likewise have that risk, but it is muted given their depth. The depth will also present itself in a much improved Rays bullpen.

There is always a risk of injury. But the risk of injury to one of the Yankees young guys is muted by the fact that their old guys are better. It seems like your argument is: yes, the Yankees have just as many top prospects, and better veterans, but there’s a chance that - all in the same year - all (or most) of the Yankees major veteran contributors will fall off a cliff and several of their top prospects will all get hurt. This is absolutely possible. It’s also tremendously unlikely, and I certainly wouldn’t be betting on it.

Again, it’s in the realm of possibility. But it’s sports: anything can happen. I just don’t see the incredible confluence of aging and injury hitting both top teams in the AL East as anything more than tremendously unlikely. And even if it does, both teams have the wherewithal and resources to retool VERY quickly.

Baldelli had an OPS of 872 in 2006 (Last year was a lost season). Floyd’s was 795 last year, and Gomes 782.

Now, see, it’s fascinating that you’re quick to mention the likelihood that someone on the Yankees or Red Sox will get hurt, but are ignoring the fact that Baldelli last played a full major league season in 2004. Since 2002, Cliff Floyd has eclipsed 400 at bats exactly once. So not only are you relying on injuries and aging to wipe out the two best teams in the American League, you’re also assuming that even the injury-prone Rays will stay healthy enough to contribute.

Well because it isn’t blowing money, and it won’t disrupt the development of the team. You act like they are just throwing $10 million away. If they win more games, they will make more money. They will sell more tickets and merchandise this season, and they will have more advance sales for the following season. 10 million more, maybe not, but certainly some.

OK, but if the net financial impact is a loss of money, and they still don’t make the playoffs, how does that make any sense?

It isn’t like I’m arguing to spend 55 million on Gil Meche.

Which, interestingly enough, is a deal that - so far - doesn’t look so bad.

[Hawkeyeop]

Well i was all set to respond, but will wait on this

Rays' Kazmir to have MRI after feeling discomfort

Anything series kind of kills my entire argument.

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

@Hawkeyeop

Well i was all set to respond, but will wait on this

Rays' Kazmir to have MRI after feeling discomfort in elbow - ESPN

Anything series kind of kills my entire argument.

I was just coming in here to post the same thing.