Hm. This stands to be a pretty interesting offseason, I think. As much as I’m getting tired of talking about him, it sort of seems like Alex Rodriguez is the key to the whole kit and caboodle. Where he ends up will inform where Mike Lowell goes, obviously, as well as who is in a financial position to pursue Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.
I know the Red Sox fans don’t want to hear this, but I’ll be pretty surprised if the Red Sox don’t make a play for A-Rod. Theo Epstein, whatever you think of him, is a stat-head; he’s not a mystic or a sentimentalist, and he’ll judge Rodriguez versus Lowell on the basis of their measurable contributions to their respective teams. He has to know that going from the one to the other would be a huge upgrade for his team. It would be expensive, but aside from Lowell’s contract, he’s also freed of Schilling’s $13 million, and Eric Gagne’s near $10 million. Add those three together, and he could put A-Rod at third in Boston for a net increase in payroll that’s fairly managable. And by so doing, he’d basically lock up the AL East for 2008, at least.
If it’s not Boston, it has to be the Angels.
After that, Lowell signs with either the Red Sox or the Yankees, depending.
Next up are Hunter and Jones. I’m curious whether the Rockies will make a play for either one of those players, actually. They can’t afford to stand pat - with the same roster, they’re more likely to play worse next year than better - and adding a centerfielder with good range and decent-to-good power would be a great upgrade. My guess is that at least one of those guys ends up in Dodgerland.
As for my team, the Mets… I don’t think they’re going to do much, unfortunately. I really like and respect Omar Minaya, but I think he’s got a bad read on his present team. I think Met management really believes that they have a championship core, that the end of last season was an abberation, that they can go into 2008 with essentially the same players and be fine. I disagree - Met starting pitching almost certainly won’t be better than it was last year without an upgrade, and could very well be worse - and I’d love to see them make a play for A-Rod or do something equally radical, but I think we’re going to see them sign a middle-of-the-road outfielder, a third starter, and two middle relievers and call it an offseason.
