Good point. I should have factored playing shallow into the equation. It would have to be a more unusual combination of events…say, a shallower foul fly but with a very fast runner on third and the outfielder maybe having to make a catch with his back to home plate.
But in such a case, the outfielder would be better off not even making the attempt, assuming the ball will clearly land foul. Then the only question would be overcoming his instinctive moving toward the ball.
I used to go to games with a friend who was a mathematics professor. He summed it up this way: “The fundamental equilibrium of baseball is preserved by the fact that pitchers are smart and hitters are stupid.”