[QUOTE=brazil84]
It doesn’t have much meaning because it is a truism. Everyone knows, and nobody disputes, that you can’t know temperatures from hundreds of years ago with 100% certainty. Nothing very interesting follows from this fact.
[/QUOTE]
If you were to read and consider the original argument in it’s entirety you would see that i was actually describing my understanding of the general state of collective knowledge we actually do have. It is not a truism that we can’t know with absolute certainty the temperatures of the last 1000 years.
The instrumental record might have gone back that far. We may yet discover a proxy that always correspond to actual temperature. So we may know, to the extent that we may know anything.
Anyway this was not the central part of the argument, but groundwork. That does not equal meaningless. It is very meaningful and what it means is that we have to make do with what we can say knowing it is better than nothing, while at the same time aknowledging the uncertainty of our statements.
[QUOTE=brazil84]
Lol. Kindly show me the four times you asked. Please use quote feature. Thanks in advance.
[/QUOTE]
Correction, three times. The point about you being dodging and unresponsive, seemingly more interested in playing games than having a meaningful conversation stands though:
[QUOTE=brazil84]
#1: Actually it’s quite plain to see for anyone taking the time to read my original post that my statements had a perfectly and easily understandable meaning i.e.
I would rather say that originally my description was quite meaningful, being part of a coherent argument stretching over several sentences and all. Now having been boiled down to the simple blatant assertion you make above it seem to me suddenly somehow stripped of it’s original meaning.
Whole argument reprinted, as I think it would be more constructive for us to discuss it as the whole coherent argument it originally were rather than you responding to some small pieces of it and both of us forgetting the context those small pieces were originally in
…
#2: Excuse me but what does that even mean? What aspect of my statement? Ah, “the” aspect, the one “in question”. I see…
Actually it’s quite plain to see for anyone taking the time to read my original post that my statements had a perfectly and easily understandable meaning i.e.
…
#3: Actually this is a quite good example of you dodging and being unresponsive wouldnt you say? I asked you what like totally like 4 times now, duh.
[/QUOTE]
Yes! Insofar as the 2001 graph is illustrating one particular scientific paper by one particular scientist while the 2007 one is an aggregated graph showing data from several different papers by several different scientists, they are not the same. Therefore there is “change” between one and the next. That is a level of change that is to be expected in any two graphs taken from any two reports on any subject imaginable.
Also, because of that fact “change” is actually a utterly and completely meaningless statement to use in this context. Unless you would care to elaborate on what “change” you are refering to and how it has meaning in this context?
[QUOTE=brazil84]
As far as I know, yes. My pal Warren says as follows:
Until about 2000, the dominant reconstruction of the last 1000 years of global temperatures was similar to that shown in this chart from the 1990 IPCC report: . . . There are two particularly noticeable features on this chart. The first is what is called the “Medieval Warm Period”, peaking in the 13th century, and thought (at least 10 years ago) to be warmer than our climate today. The second is the “Little Ice Age” which ended at about the beginning of the industrial revolution. Climate scientists built this reconstruction with a series of “proxies”, including tree rings and ice core samples, which (they hope) exhibit properties that are strongly correlated with historical temperatures.
[/QUOTE]
I will make you a proposition: What this graph is showing we can’t say much about, since we do not know what research it is based on, who made it, and what it is supposed to show, in contrast to the two previous graphs.
I would therefore trust the Mann graph and the aggregated one over this one.
[QUOTE=brazil84]
Too bad you can’t be bothered to actually read my posts before jumping into this thread.
[/QUOTE]
To bad you can’t be bothered to actually read mine. As i already stated that i read through this thread. Actually i have stated that somewhere in the vicinity of 2-10 times by now. Once should be enough actually.
[QUOTE=brazil84]
Let’s suppose for the sake of argument that Mann’s tools work poorly and the Little Ice Age was significantly colder than his reconstruction shows. One aspect of his conclusion – that current temperatures are unprecedentedly warm compared to the last 400 years – would still be correct.
On the other hand, if Mann’s tools work well – and he nailed the temperature reconstruction for the last 400 years – that aspect of his conclusion would still be correct. So it’s not a matter of how good his tools are. It’s a matter of what is being measured.
[/QUOTE]
My point is this. We have tools to try to measure HGMT. They are imperfect. It might so happen that there is no hockey stick but a snail, a beetle or a bowl. It might also be that Mann’s tools did not work poorly and mismeasured The Little Ice Age, but that in fact there never were a Little Ice Age. Wrap your head around that idea if you can.
Now i am suspecting that you are vaguely and crypticly alluding to some distinction between “tools” understood by you as accuracy of measurement of something and in this case i suspect you think they are measuring some specific proxy. Then you are cryptically alluding to the fact that they may be accurately measuring the proxy but not accurately measuring the HGMT.
But when i make my argument saying that our tools are imperfect, that our knowledge is uncertain, then that includes both cases, i.e. for some proxies we may have trouble measuring the proxy back in time and at the same time one particular proxy or all of them might differ in significant ways from the actual HGMT.
That’s what i (implicitly perhaps) meant ALL ALONG. And you know what? The IPCC acknowledges this and given that being the case they try to survey all of the relevant research being done, weigh in the uncertainties as well as the certainties and then quantify what can be said and with what certainty it can be said.
And my understanding of the concensus they have reached and the implications thereof follows:
[QUOTE=SherwoodAnderson]
Our tools of measurement to make statements about historical global mean temperature (hereafter HGMT) is:
P1) very good for the last 150 years or so.
P2) quite good for the last 400 years.
P3) somewhat murkier for the 600 years preceding.
The above represents MY understanding of the state of research as communicated by f.e. the IPCC
P4) The aggregated HGMT measurements for the last 150 years shows rapid increase in GMT.
P5) The aggregated research of proxy records for HGMT for the last 400 years show rapid increase in GMT for the last 150 years or so, the last couple of decades being the warmest during the period.
P6) The aggregated research of proxy records for HGMT for the last 1000 years show with some certainty:
a) there are two potential maximums during this time period, one now, and one 1000 years ago.
b) there is a probable local minimum somewhere around yr 16-1700.
c) a plurality of proxy data indicate the present maximum is warmer than the one 1000 years ago, but it is hard to say with absolute authority.
So my argument then: given premises (again meant informally) 1-6 in my view it is quite likely that the time we are living in is the warmest in the last 1000 years, although it is hard to say with absolutely certain. It may also be that the warmest time was 1000 yrs ago and now is the second warmest.
Given that this is what we know it is then unreasonable to say that the hockey stick is somehow discredited or unreasonable.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=brazil84]
And it seems silly to me that you demand that I go digging through my posts to look for something that you could easily find for yourself. If you had actually read my posts in good faith, it would be just as easy for you to find the post in question as for me.
[/QUOTE]
Perhaps i expect you to know your own definition off the top of your head or be more easily able to point it out since you once wrote it. As i myself would. Forget about it i found it now.
[QUOTE=brazil84]
Essentially, yes. For example, if it were shown that Mann’s graph significantly overstates the stability of global temperatures over the past 1000 years (before the 20th century), then it has been discredited.
[/QUOTE]
I think we are actually getting to the interesting part. Now Manns graph is showing a measurement by proxy. I don’t believe that Mann ever have claimed it to show THE Historical Global Mean Temperature. Only a measurement of it by proxy and statistical methods, that we can reasonably believe corresponds to the actual HGMT in such a way that it is meaningful.
If we had an instrumental record for the last 1000 years we would never be interested in making such studies as Manns.
Now, to “discredit” Mann given the above could possibly mean:
-
Showing that Mann had somehow manipulated the data so that what he presented did not correspond to the actual proxy he measured.
-
Showing that there are better proxies for measuring HGMT and that they actually show something completely different.
The latter i personally would not see as discrediting Manns work only as us getting better tools of measurement and science progressing. The conclusions about HGMT would be different though.
The former would discredit Mann though in my view. Is this your argument then that you believe Mann has been shown to be a dishonest scientist, manipulating his data?
Or is it the latter - that we now have better proxies and that they show that there is a Small Ice Age in your view disproving a “Hockey Stick”. Neither of the two seem waranted by the current state of research as described by the IPCC.