Terror Bombs in Saudi. (Col, you okay?)

[system]

*Originally posted by elfje *
the House of Saud is not liked by ordinary Saudi’s.

That is not entirely clear.

Saudi society is not something that is just Euro-Amer. society in the desert. It’s a society that remains heavily tribal in its structure, even as modernization of life, and urbanization dissolve those ties.

The Saud rule over a highly distributive system, in which favors and family or clan ties rule. It’s logic was once impeccable, now rapid population growth and rapid urbanization are straining that logic.

There is a lot of boredom and strain in Saudi society, and per capita they are getting poorer year by year, only something like $9k/yr PCI.

Some part of society believes that they have to get even more puritanical to solve the clear problems of a system that no longer fits a society which no longer fits its own values.

Wonderful sitaution, no?

Reckon that’s why they’ve pulled out.
Don’t want to rock the boat in Saudi, what if the House of Saud is overthrown?

The logic for keeping the troops there was gone, they had to leave one way or another. Further, the divorce was coming beforehand, ever since 11 Sep.

Would be nasty. For the US, I mean.
No more cheap oil.

That is not how oil markets work – although it is true the Saudis sell some % of their production to the US directly at a discount to preserve a visible market share, for political reasons.

However, the world oil market is global and pretty liquid (alhtough there are short term barriers due to different grades being best for certain refineries, this is easily overcome).

What matters in the end is the total supply versus the total demand. Globally.

It’s also one of the theories as to why Bush invaded Iraq. Saddam wanted a Pan Arab state. Combining all arab nations under one banner.

Bah, Pan Arabism is a dead letter and Sadaam did no more than the average Arab leader, paylip service. There was no real threat there. He did threaten stability of the single largest oil producing area w/ the lowest per barrel production costs. That’s not good for anyone.

That’s not a world picture the Bush administration liked imagining. So they went in, in an effort to sow animosity and to make sure arab nations will not combine their forces. An Arab region that is divided suits them best.

While this may be superficially true, it is also false. The Arabs are plently divided amongst themselves with absolutely nobody’s assistance needed. It’s common to here Arabs blame the West for their divisions, but the reality is that it is different regional and elite interests that perpetuate them more than any Western interference, for all that there may be some grain of truth to this.

BTW, I heard someone state that US has plenty of oil in Texas and California, but want sto use up resources outside their country, before they touch their own.

This true?

Absolutely not. It’s a stupid and ignorant claim by people who know nothing of the markets.

[elfje]

*Originally posted by Collounsbury *
**That is not entirely clear.

Saudi society is not something that is just Euro-Amer. society in the desert. It’s a society that remains heavily tribal in its structure, even as modernization of life, and urbanization dissolve those ties.

The Saud rule over a highly distributive system, in which favors and family or clan ties rule. It’s logic was once impeccable, now rapid population growth and rapid urbanization are straining that logic.

There is a lot of boredom and strain in Saudi society, and per capita they are getting poorer year by year, only something like $9k/yr PCI.

Some part of society believes that they have to get even more puritanical to solve the clear problems of a system that no longer fits a society which no longer fits its own values.

Wonderful sitaution, no?

wonderful, indeed. So where do you think SA is headed?
The logic for keeping the troops there was gone, they had to leave one way or another. Further, the divorce was coming beforehand, ever since 11 Sep.

they were kinda hasty, though, dontcha think? Why did it need to happen so quickly? Did they foresee trouble? Why was the divorce coming, even before 09/11/01?

That is not how oil markets work – although it is true the Saudis sell some % of their production to the US directly at a discount to preserve a visible market share, for political reasons.

However, the world oil market is global and pretty liquid (alhtough there are short term barriers due to different grades being best for certain refineries, this is easily overcome).

What matters in the end is the total supply versus the total demand. Globally.

that, and the fact the SA is the oil exporting country that’s most in favour of keeping the oil currency in $US, I have been told. That is one of the reasons, it seems, why US is so tolerant of SA.

Bah, Pan Arabism is a dead letter and Sadaam did no more than the average Arab leader, paylip service. There was no real threat there. He did threaten stability of the single largest oil producing area w/ the lowest per barrel production costs. That’s not good for anyone.
yeah, I know. I said it was one of the theories. Didn’t think Sadam came anywhere near creating a pan Arabic nation
While this may be superficially true, it is also false. The Arabs are plently divided amongst themselves with absolutely nobody’s assistance needed. It’s common to here Arabs blame the West for their divisions, but the reality is that it is different regional and elite interests that perpetuate them more than any Western interference, for all that there may be some grain of truth to this.

you have to admit that a divided Middle East plays in Bush’s cards, though. And he should know that where Islam prevails, the inhabitants will mostly choose Islam rule. Or do you think a democracy (a real, working democracy, not a corrupt, based on bribes democracy) will be established in Iraq, and will actually work? You should have a better feel for these things, since you’re in the neighbourhood

Absolutely not. It’s a stupid and ignorant claim by people who know nothing of the markets. **

thanks for clearing that up.