Osama Bin Laden wins! (US to leave SA)

Great Debates
1

The U.S. military is, apparently, pulling out of Saudi Arabia (no pun, apparently, intended)
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/news-iraq-rumsfeld.html

This seems pretty significant, seeing as it has been a major point of contention within the Muslim world ever since the first Gulf War. It’s a smart move for everyone involved.

But the crazy thing is that, in OBL’s twisted world, I could see how this would make him even more of a folk hero among the zealots. Leaving aside the utter lack of a clear causal mechanism between 9/11 and these recent events in Iraq, he can claim to his followers that he not only ultimately got the West out of the holy lands, but that the only price was the fall of a hated secular dictator and temporary setbacks in Afghanistan.

In a world where pretty much everything that happens is said to “piss off the Arab street” how can the “Arab street” possibly explain away this as evidence of American evil?

2

Osama BinLaden wins?

Yes, much in the way the Black Knight defeated Arthur in ‘Monty Python and the Holy Grail’…

“Come back and fight! I’ll bite your kneecaps off!”

3

I think the Arab street will be glad; it’s not just Bin Laden who didn’t like having the US so close to Mecca. Whether it makes a difference in perception of the US, since we just invaded another Arab country, is another question. Unless significant strides are made regarding balance in the Israel/Palestine issue, I doubt this’ll make much difference. The troops are being moved to Qatar, it should be noted, so they’ll still be in the Mideast.

4

just one little problem.

what about all of those US troops near the Holy City of Karbala?

who ever said Terrorist are logical or rational?

If a camel farts in the face of an imam, terrorist would say it was the US’s fault.

5

Well, I doubt Osama bin Laden would care much about Karbala.

6

Are they coming home, or are they moving out of Saudi and into Iraq?

7

I’m not sure what the debate is. Will the “Arab Street” explain this away? Hey, if ObL were arguing logically, we could invite him over here and chat with him. Besides, ObL is as much against the S.A. royal family as he is against us. We still support the royals, so we’re still evil.

Now, getting a handle on the Palestinian/Israeli situation… that’s where the real leverage is. If we can get traction there, the ObLs of the world will have a much harder time whipping up support.

BTW, the main reason we had troops in S.A., was to continue to protect that country, and the region from Saddam Hussein. That’s no longer an issue, so I’m quite happy we’re pulling out.

8

Scruff, we’re actually going to be using Qatar as our base.

9

I’m not sure Bin Laden cares about Karbala either, I think that city is only holy to the Shia, not Muslims as a whole (most Muslims, Bin Laden included, are Sunni). Israel/Palestine, as John Mace put it so well, will continue to be the main issue. Even without Bin Laden, that would be infuriating Muslims and Arabs more than anything else.

10

Yea, but for what? I can see moving the Joint Task Force SW Asia from Prince Sultan to Qatar, it makes sense to keep it in the region, but are they moving the 363 AEW (the vast bulk of the troops at PSAB) as well? If so…why? OSW was the whole reason for the force there.

11

Well, if we had our wits about us, we would make the effort to make sure that al-Jazeera played up the story, including the point that we opened negotiations to get out in August, 2001, and that the WTC/Pentagon attacks actually delayed our departure.

Of course, since we are now tromping around, invading sovereign nations in violation of our commitment to the U.N. Charter (that we wrote), it is probably pointless to bother doing anything like that, now.)

12

Immensely significant.

OBL wins, mainstream Arab opinion is assuaged, the Saud family benefit from an easing of pressure (for a while, at least), the US has a new, in theory more malleable, client State (in Iraq), the Iraqi people are free of Saddam …… I guess the only loser in the whole deal might – in the longer term – be the Iraqi people as the cost of being acquired by the empire mounts up.

So, that’s item one ticked off OBL’s shopping list. Lets see how far Bush goes with item two, the ‘Middle East Road Map’ …

13

What? Is the note of cynicism in this move too high for the rest of you to hear?

I suspect the U.S. military was doing a lot more than merely protecting Saudi Arabia from Iraq. I suspect their presence was propping up the House of Saud.

I further suspect that by pulling out, the chance that the House of Saud will be overthrown increases greatly. If that happens, the first thing that’s going to happen after that is 200 detained al-Qaeda members will waltz out of Saudi prisons.

And then someone is going to start beating the drum again, saying that the new Wahabist government supports terrorists, restricts visitation to Mecca, is attempting to destabilize the region, and who knows? The weapons of mass destruction angle sure worked on the American public like an all-day sucker at the fair.

But what will the United States be able to do about it, with a division or two in Kuwait, a division or two in Iraq, and a division or two in the Qatar peninsula, which juts out from central Saudi Arabia like the hilt of a dagger in someone’s back?

I just don’t know.

14

Can you elaborate with some specifics? I’d be curious if our troops were involved in anything other than keeping a low profile there.

15

This is a move whose time has come, IMHO.

Besides, I thought the leftists and Muslims of the world wanted the U.S. to address “the root cause” of 9/11. By withdrawing our evil infidel troops from the land of Mecca and Medina, are we not, in fact, actually addressing these root problems?

The proclamation that this withdrawal signals that OBL has “won” is, in a word, ludicrous.

I hardly equate this as America slinking away from Riyadh in humiliation (as in Somalia). We’ve basically routed the Middle East’s most formidable army (not that having the best army in the ME is saying much - it’s like the tallest dwarf in the circus) in three weeks with minimal casualties.

Our chief enemies OBL and Saddam may be dead, injured, or alive, but it seems reasonable to assert that they don’t have NEARLY the same capability they had on September 11, 2001.

This was a move made out of America’s awesome strength and a clear idea of our interests. After all, I’m not a military guy, but it seems we barely used those bases in the war because of fear of offending Saudi/Muslim sensibilities. Seems to me those bases offered few real military benefits and earned us a lot of enmity and grief.

Sofa King

Quite frankly, I don’t believe this. I think the House of Saud is more than relieved to be rid of us. I think this was a very amicable mutual agreement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

I wouldn’t be surprised to hear various calls from the sheiks and clerics for liberalization and reform to assuage their restless population, as well as to respond to worldwide pressure to reform the political system.

Time will tell, I guess. But I, for one, am relieved to be out of there.

16

I’m glad you started this thread. I saw this today and realized how gigantic a piece of news it is. Although TO say OBL wins is a weird way to spin it.

If you watched any of OBL’s interviews prior to 9/11 he basically said American civlians are legitimate targets in his holy war to get us off “sacred land”. We were only in Saudi Arabia to babysit Kuwait. We were babysitting Kuwait because Saddam remained in power. Take away Saddam and the need to stay in Saudi Arabia is gone.

Too bad I didn’t know of this site earlier because I would have predicted this. The next major step will be a serious attempt to establish Palestine. I don’t think the announcement today to leave Saudi Arabia was an accident. I think it was timed to coincide with the change of leadership away from Arafat.

It’s all linked together. Getting out of Saudi Arabia makes the Wahabi’s happy. setting up Palestine legitimizes our attempts at nation-building in Iraq.

IMO, the reason we went after Iraq was so we could get out of Saudi Arabia. It became apparent that Saddam was never going to give up his regional power drive. France actually gave us the green light because Chirac said he would veto ANY attempt at war. That effectively removed the clock entirely. It was also a matter of time before Saddam perfected a launchable nuke.

17

I’m not sure how you do that, but it’s a good idea. I was unaware those negotiations had started so long ago, that’s very interesting.

You’d have to ask apos, but I’m not sure his comment was meant to connote disapproval of the move. I think he was just suggesting that Bin Laden’s people could perceive it as a victory, which is an interesting thought.
I’ve got no problem with the move, myself. As said earlier, the American presence in Saudi Arabia isn’t the sole reason for September 11, and I’d add that your word choice also seems to ally leftists with terrorists. If that’s your intent - and I’m not saying I’m sure it is - I would strenously object.

18

Nah, I didn’t take Apos’s post to mean that - it is an interesting thought to for OBL’s people to see this as an OBL win, but it takes mental gymnastics of the sort that even al-Quada loyalists to really believe that.

Then again, I don’t put this past them. al-Quada terrorists aren’t really the sharpest tools in the shed.

No, that’s not my intent, and I don’t equate leftists with OBL nor suggest they are allies.

However, many leftists and residents of the MENA region DID suggest that America seek to identify and address the root causes of 9/11. America DID identify ONE root cause (our troops in SA) and now have addressed it.

I just wanted to emphasize the fact that the supposed “Evil Leader” has actually done that, and I hope that leftists/residents of the MENA region acknowledge this fact.

But I’m not holding my breath waiting for said acknowledgement.:rolleyes:

19

The more reasonable people over there could make that acknowledgement, or at least would if so many other factors weren’t so bad. If this is a first step, things can significantly improve. If this is gonna be it, well, we’re still in trouble.

20

WHOOOOOSHHHHH!!!

I think my OP pretty specifically pointed out how goofy anyone would have to be to credit OBL with “acheiving” this effect. His battle plan was “hurt the US in a way it could never imagine, have the US turn tail and get out of the holy land.” What happened was that we routed two countries, and the region will likely NEVER be free from our military control in the future. The fact that we won’t physically have troops in SA anymore is utterly meaningless. So OBL has essentially, won one thing he wanted, but lost more than he ever could have imagined: things are far worse now for his fear of Western domination.

Maybe the Arab street will catch onto that someday.

Whether this bodes well or ill for the Saud is sort of beside the point: I think things are looking pretty bad for them no matter what.