Some sources apparently close to police have mentioned what appears to have been the original plan.
THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED - THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED - THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED
However, if this ends up being what really happened, then it definitely could have been MUCH worse than it was.
[SPECULATION SUPPOSEDLY BASED ON POLICE SOURCES]
OK. Apparently, the original plan (plan A) was to stuff a truck with explosives and detonate it somewhere with lots of people. Perhaps do the same Ramblas thing, only at the end, on top of the running over, there would have been a devastating explosion right in the center of Barcelona.
This Moussa Oukabir guy tries to rent a truck, but the rental company refuses, because he doesn’t have the proper type of driver’s license (or, rather, his brother doesn’t, given that apparently he was using his brother’s documents to do the rental).
Plan B: Instead of a truck, two smaller vans are rented. The plan seems to still be stuffing them with explosives and do the run-over-plus detonation thing.
Wednesday night: Whoever was at the clandestine workshop where they were apparently trying to weaponize a shit-ton of butane gas tanks screws up and blows up the whole thing sky-high. House demolished, one dead, several wounded.
The whole group of terrorists decides that they are fucked - the police is going to end up putting 2 and 2 together, and they will be done. Plan C is settled upon: Just run over as many people as they can in las Ramblas.
[/SPECULATION SUPPOSEDLY BASED ON POLICE SOURCES]
Now – as I said, this is only speculation as of right now. If this information is later on confirmed, then we can deduce that:
(1) Moussa Oukabir is an idiot, for he tried to rent a truck without showing the proper driver’s license to do so. That would later on possibly raise some eyebrows. It tends to call attention to yourself (especially when you are rather obviously young).
(2) The members of the cell were not properly trained in explosives manufacturing. Small comfort, yes, but it would show that DAESH does not have the means to actually train idiots, and relies on said idiots following the DIY style of traning via materials in the net, without hands-on training.
(3) This is more of a puzzle – If they rented the two vans in order to blow them up, and later on the whole plan is screwed, and they decide to act before they are arrested or have to go into hiding… Why use only one van? Why not go for both, given that the group is screwed anyway? Why not launch two simultaneous surprise attacks in separate locations? You may take the police and secret services on the wrong foot when you launch your attack, but afterwards they are going to be in high gear and very actively looking for you and anybody related to you. Thus, why use only one van?
(4) Why did the attack in Cambrils take so (relatively) long to happen, and where did the Audi A3 used in Cambrils come from? I have not read anything about that. It would seem that the police is keeping mum in that respect. Might it be a car property of somebody who is being investigated right now? Or perhaps a stolen car? No word so far about it.
Will keep reporting as new information comes in.