Tesla Model 3 anticipation thread

In My Humble Opinion
381

It’s not hard to find more. Ford Mustang, for example:
Remove the hood strut from the catch and secure it correctly after use.
Lower the hood and allow it to drop under its own weight for the last 20 –30 cm.

(sorta amused that my BMW gave the drop height in feet, while the Ford gave it in metric)

From what I’ve seen, most vehicles request the drop method. I probably wouldn’t bother with the manual unless it was something exotic-looking (like a Tesla). But there’s nothing inherently intuitive about that method, and it’s pretty different from most other car openings, which you can pretty much slam from any distance.

382

The difference is gravity.

IME there are two kinds of hinge systems in use with hoods. The kind where the hood is held up by springs, pistons, etc., and can be let go of almost anywhere in it’s travel and it will stay mostly put, and the kind where the hood is unsupported in travel and must be held up by a separate strut the person must install/remove.

Almost all the latter type’s manuals suggest you not simply remove the strut then let gravity close the lid from full travel. They’ll pretty much all say to drop the hood from a few inches to a foot of height.

IMO the issue is not that any car parts will be damaged, but that any human body parts in the hood’s path will be damaged. The owner’s manual on a 1965 e.g. Ford may not have had that caution, but the manual on a 2017 Ford will. The difference is not in the cars’ robustness, but in the paranoia of Ford’s legal department and the cluelessness of the driving public.CAUTION: Do not drop large heavy things on your hands. :smack:
I’ve never seen a trunk lid that uses a separate strut to hold it open. But …

I have a car with the typical modern spring/hydraulic limiter cylinders on each side of the trunk lid. For whatever reason, by design these cylinders are much weaker than you’d expect vs. other cars and the trunk lid goes over-center when you raise it fully. When closing the trunk, if you simply pull the lid aft until it’s over center then let go it will drop with a scary-sounding impact and shake the whole car. The owner’s manual procedure is to hand lower it to a few inches above fully closed then let go. Much more civilized.

ISTM the concern is not for the trunk & car body, which could probably absorb 100,000 of those monster clunks without harm. But for the inevitable 15 fingers that will get mashed during the 100K attempts.

383

Does Mustang manual say it’s vulnerable to damage? Because that’s what the discussion is with the model 3.

But this brings up a good point. The advantage of having a extra trunk in the front of the Model 3 is that you can store tools in it to fix the latch.

384

Funny. Better hope the latch doesn’t get jammed closed.

Teslas aren’t a Toyota. If you actually want low maintenance cost and long vehicle lifespan, get a Toyota.

385

Yet one of the advantages of BEVs really should be low maintenance cost and long vehicle lifespan relative to an ICE vehicle (including Toyotas). The “frunk” being so fragile that one risks creasing it by pressing it closed in locations that intuitively someone (read one of your kids) would press is not easily handwaved away. It also implies a high likelihood of hood damage in any minor traffic tap or possibly even someone leaning against the car washing it.

Was there a design solution that could have avoided that without adding excessive cost or weight? Not one that could be come up with when rushing through the process anyway. Likely by a year or two into it they will come up one but yeah, a more traditional automaker would have that design in place before build began.

386

I watched Doug Demuro’s video & read the owner’s manual (pg 6). This car would never work for me. I’m a runner, I almost never run with my phone, a lot of others in my running club don’t either. It doesn’t sound like it’s possible to lock the car with your phone in it.
When I have a pocket, I slip my car key into my pocket, in attire that doesn’t have a pocket, I have a “dumb” (non-chipped) key that will only unlock the doors, but not start the car. I either tie that into my shoelace or leave it, typically on the tire, with the real key hidden in the car. Even if someone finds the dumb key, they can’t steal the car with it.

Also the fact that they require you to carry both is telling.

387

All things held equal, yes. If Toyota made an EV, it would be highly reliable.

But clearly there’s a huge chunk of the vehicle other than the drivetrain, and, well, it takes the incremental improvements, institutional skill, and enormous R&D budget from being the world’s largest automaker to get that kind of reliability. Reliability at Toyota’s level requires enormous amounts of testing to find rare faults, analysis of failed vehicles, and to only make changes incrementally over a 5-10 year period so that you can maintain that kind of reliability.

None of that sounds like Tesla. So if you want something that’s cheap to buy, cheap to operate, and reliable, get a used Camry or Prius.

If you have extra money to burn and want a BMW but not have to spend BMW level maintenance and gas, get a Tesla.

388

If it’s a Mustang than the owner can drive to one of the 3,000+ Ford dealerships.

389

And you see this is where Tesla is indeed potentially on track to run into major problems because the market segment they are aiming for with the Model 3 is neither of those but the vast middle in between. The base for a Model 3 (and the base is a fine car even if most early buyers will choose more expensive packages) is aimed pretty close to the median for new cars (light vehicles) in the United States, and is well below the entry level luxury, let alone high performance price points.

Those of us in between are not looking for cheap. And we are not looking to broadcast status or most interested in performance specs. We do want reliable and we do want value and we are willing to pay a premium to get those things. Speaking for myself I value my time quite a bit. That’s why I love that even my very limited PHEV saves me so much time wasted going to the gas station and that I need to spend fewer days inconvenienced by oil changes than I would with a more traditional ICE.

If Tesla subs out time wasted at the gas station and getting oil changes with time at the shop getting the frunk hood replaced and other non-drivetrain issues repaired … well count me and many other target demographic consumers out. (Hence why my move up from my PHEV will likely be something other than a Tesla, thinking the Volvo in a few years.)

There is an amount of pent up demand that they will be rushing to fulfill. But that pent up demand will be met pretty much as their capacity to supply ramps up. Keeping that demand up from there means appealing to more than those in love with the Tesla name and concept and early adopters; it will require delivering that value and reliability.

390

Aren’t you a doctor, per your username? Even the lowest end internal medicine docs are making a median of 170k, aren’t they? That’s well into the stratosphere statistically speaking, only a small fraction of the population actually makes more than that. (and a very small percentage of that small fraction didn’t already start out wealthy!)

I’m just saying your needs are not representative.

391

I read the pages in the manual, and I have a different read. Sounds like if you put your phone into airplane mode (so Bluetooth is off) then you can leave your phone in the car, take the valet “key” with you, and lock and unlock the doors.

And the manual does not “require” you to carry both your phone and the valet key. It specifically “recommends” carrying both in case your phone is lost or runs out of battery.

I am not sure if I would prefer running with a traditional car key or a credit card (and I don’t presume to judge your opinion) but I don’t think this situation is as onerous as you make out.

392

ETA: @SamuelA two posts above.

Do not forget that the population that buys new cars, even entry level new cars, is already demographically pretty skewed away from the bottom half or so of the whole country. A car priced at the median of new cars is a product aimed at the top WAG 20% of the populace.

393

Early S cars were prone to damage, because they had a large, thin aluminum hood and little reinforcement. They added reinforcement over time and it’s not really a problem any more. However, the warning in the manual is still there.

The 3 has a smaller hood and they want it to appeal to a less enthusiast crowd. Despite the warning, there’s not much reason to believe it’s a problem area until we start seeing reports.

394

While my username has nothing to do with my profession, yes I am a doctor, and sure let’s accept that I am in an income level that is in an upper percentile. I still choose what to spend and what not spend on. My car purchase desires are I think not far off from the target demographic. I can afford to and am willing to buy a car at the median to somewhat above. I have no desire to buy a luxury or high performance vehicle and no need to buy something cheap. I will pay more for value. I’m not going to buy a Model S or high end BMW, and I’m not going to buy a used Camry. That puts me in the demographic Tesla is aiming for with the Model 3 - a car for not all of the masses but a fair chunk of us.

Do most others willing to pay median to somewhat above for a new vehicle value their time less than I value mine? Are most of them interested in being early adopters or are they interested in reliability in getting them to and from work and picking up kids and such safely and in comfort? Okay, some are taking on large debt relative to income to signal something with their vehicle, granted. But I think my needs and desires are not as unrepresentative as you think.

Dr. Strangelove’s point is well made. The warning may be them being cautious given past problems with Model S. Until the car is out and problems are reported or not. But a wide-spread perception that one should not get a Tesla unless one has “extra money to burn”, and that it is not a car to get if you want reliability, would … be a problem for the Model 3 once the pent up demand is met.

395

Why do we assume that electric cars are more reliable or require few repairs? I’ve not had to repair an engine or transmission on a car in a couple of decades. All of the rest of the components are common. If you need to replace a ball joint, the drivetrain makes no difference.

396

You’re basically correct. Over 150k-300k miles (it depends), it’s not uncommon for a reliable ICE car to need an engine rebuild from a blown head gasket or sometimes replacement with an engine from a junkyard pull or rebuild. Ditto the transmission. I am unsure what the probability for this is, but all mechanical systems wear out eventually.

An EV uses lithium ion batteries that typically are listed as lasting around 1.5k-2k cycles when cycled to 50% and charged gently. (supercharging, deep discharges, charging them fully all reduce the life). Taking 1500 * half capacity, an EV with a 230 mile pack could be expected to go for 172k before needing a battery replacement, junkyard pull, or rebuild. The LR Tesla with 50% more range also has about 50% more life, or 258k.

There is a Tesla that has 300k miles on the odometer, but it is not on it’s original battery.

So yeah, I basically agree with you. An EV’s core system - the battery - isn’t really going to last any longer than reliable ICE engine systems. You don’t need to do oil changes with an EV, but that’s not very much, especially with the new 15k mile synthetics, where a vehicle might need 10-15 $75 oil changes throughout it’s entire lifespan.

The other weak point on an EV is the high power motor and inverter electronics. At least with solar panels, these are the weak point - it’s not uncommon for them to fail every 10 years. The actual failure rate is probably highly variable, but this is a significant failure-prone component that ICE cars don’t have.

Basically, you’re replacing the engine, belts, and transmission (all failure prone items on an ICE vehicle) with a battery and critical drive electronics that serve as the equivalent to a transmission. I suspect in the long run, with well engineered EVs, they will fail about as often as well engineered ICE cars.

The one bright spot is that you could build an EV to be modular in a way that ICE cars are not. You could in theory make the battery a set of plug in “modules” that can be separately unbolted and lowered from underneath. They could be changed by anyone with a jack and an impact wrench. The EV’s computer would tell the mechanic exactly which module is suspect. Similarly, the inverters could be made as separate modules that are easily accessible, with easily accessed shutoff valves so you don’t spill coolant everywhere when changing one.

Alas, this is not how Teslas currently do it. The battery is a 2000 lb, single piece subunit, there is a real danger of electrocution if shade tree mechanics work on it, and the inverters are a pain in the ass to swap.

397

I’d like to see the control module broken down into plug-in replaceable parts.

398

Ditto. You could at a minimum divide it into 4 pieces. A central control board, and a high power water-cooled switching board for each motor phase.

399

Let’s start with the routine: oil changes, transmission fluid, spark plugs, muffler, timing belts … all items that BEV owners do not need to mess with. Brakes a bit less often, possibly by half, due to regen sparing. Again the costs of those in material and labor is not so much the issue for me as the cost in my time.

As SamuelA notes with the ICE as you get beyond 150K with an ICE your ice (heh) begins to get thinner for both the engine and the transmission. What? About $4K to replace an engine with something rebuilt and $5K for the trans?

The Tesla battery? So far the data shows

So at 200K down on average from the base Model 3’s 220 miles range to 154 miles of range … still running just fine for most daily commuting. Yes some more and some less of a drop but even if a bit more it is still a drivable vehicle that would meet many users’ needs … still far far more range and utility than the early Leafs had… the ICE with a crapped out engine and/or trans? Not able to meet anyone’s needs.

Cost to replace the battery in say 15 to 20 years if you so choose? Who knows? The drop in battery costs have been dramatic so far. I know some here doubt any claims made by the company but they claim to have gotten pack costs to below $190/kWh and dropping. How much lower can it go? I don’t know. Let’s be conservative and assume it bottoms out at $150. For a 60 kWh pack that’s still less than replacing an engine and trans. Will there be any aftermarket for a battery with 50% of its capacity in some stationary function? Maybe.

As for modules … I’ve no idea if Tesla’s separate individual modules can be independently replaced but the Chevy Bolt’s battery is indeed modular and:

As far as the inverter … same item as in hybrids. Expensive when it dies to be sure but so far that has through the years been a very infrequent event.

400

OK.

7,500-10,000 mile change intervals. I drop my truck off at the dealer near where I work, they shuttle me to my workplace, then when it’s done they pick me up and I get my truck back.

50,000 miles-lifetime interval depending on manufacturer and transmission.

100,000 mile change interval.

Exhaust systems are all stainless steel now because they’re emissions components. Mufflers don’t rust out every year.

getting pretty rare, and those still on the market have 100,000 mile change intervals.

nor do most ICEV owners. EVs should be able to stand on their own merits. you don’t need to pull horseshit like pretending modern ICEVs are the same maintenance intensive, unreliable, fragile rust-prone garbage we had in the 1970s. 'Cos they aren’t. But Tesla acolytes love to act like they are.