Just to be clear: I have no dog in this fight and my last post was intended to be taken in a joking fashion.The post I made before that linking to the CNN article about Tesla losing all that money or whatever was just something I noticed online and thought it worth posting in this thread as it was related to the topic.
I like the Model 3 by and large, and completely believe that EV’s will be what we’re all driving very soon, and that it’ll be an overall boon to the environment.
However, this back and forth with accusations of lying, falsifying profits and production levels, etc between Tesla spokespeople, Musk and the Tesla detractors has risen to the level of conspiracy almost, and is ridiculous, not to mention amusing to an outsider.
You probably used that article only because it happened to be the one you saw first, but the bias shown in the article because of what it didn’t mention were pretty glaring. It mentioned the record loss, and didn’t say anything about the record revenues, strong sales (despite holding back 12,000 cars), etc.
When I replied I was originally planning to site back the same article, but I wanted to make sure I remembered “record revenue” correctly, and it wasn’t there, which is why I had to find a different source.
Understood. I did see the smileys. Nevertheless, I think it’s pretty stupid and shitty for Ravenman to accuse me of being in a cult.
I agree that the level of drama is ridiculous. It’s not really new in relative terms–there’s long been a contingent of Tesla haters (anyone remember the “Tesla Death Watch” from 2008ish?). But Tesla is so big now that every little event is mainstream news.
The Tesla fanboys and hyper-pessimists are both detached from reality. But the pessimists, at this point, are more detached. Tesla is clearly moving in the right direction and there are no obvious obstacles to achieving most of their goals. Furthermore, while the optimists are largely limited to various web forums, the pessimists have in their ranks big hedge fund managers like Einhorn and Chanos. They’ve lost big money already and yet appear all too happy to keep betting against Tesla. And they’ll continue lying and misdirecting to retain some shred of hope that Tesla will fail.
A cult may sound harsh but you’ve been glossing over a fair amount of problems. As an example, the tent factory. This was a serious bit of expense for Tesla and you made it sound like it was laying in a closet somewhere and only needed a bit of string to assemble it.
Tesla has made it this far in spite of Musk. they need to keep the numbers down on customer"suicide by autopilot" as well as car battery fires. They don’t have the infrastructure for a major mechanical recall. They can’t afford an Oldsmobile diesel fiasco.
They need a couple of smooth years without any major problems.
CapEx was reduced in Q2 compared to Q1, whereas production increased far more quickly–so Tesla is clearly expanding production more efficiently than before. The tent was certainly cheap; you’ll have to take their word for it regarding the components, but based on photos it clearly was a low-automation line. The comments about putting the line on a downslope certainly suggest that they used equipment which was not purchased especially for this line.
Yes, I’d certainly love to see a couple of years of smooth sailing, though I think that’s optimistic. Tesla has challenges ahead, but I think they’re nearly past existential challenges–that is, “kill the company” ones. Even if they don’t quite turn a profit in the near future, they’ll have reduced the bleeding to manageable levels and bought themselves some time; enough to launch the Semi and Model Y, and grow other businesses.
Not that it’s all that relevant, but Tesla stock was up 16% today and doesn’t seem to have retracted in after hours. There’s no way to spin this as anything but highly positive as far as the investors are concerned. The more rational bears are starting to turn around.
As a cite for the Sprung tent structure–we can get a hint of the cost from this eBay auction. It’s $1.5M for a used 160x410 ft tent. The Tesla tent is 900 ft long but probably the same 160 ft width (looks about right, and that seems like a common width for them). If we multiply by 2.5 for the length and 2 for new vs. used, that’s still only $7.5M. It seems pretty unlikely that they spent more than $10M on it. The Sprung website states that no foundation is necessary for 160 ft width structures (though we do know that Tesla poured a concrete pad).
As for the equipment, I dunno, but they’ve said multiple times that it was mostly leftover equipment.
Looks like prices have gone up:
AWD is now $5000 (was $4000)
Red/white paint is $2000, metallics $1500 (were $1000)
Destination charge is $1200 (was $1000)
Also, post-delivery full self-driving is now $5000 (from $4000), although before delivery it’s still $3000.
Kinda sucks, but I figure Tesla knows what the demand curve is. I wonder if this is not completely profit optimization, but also supply optimization–they seemed surprised at the fraction of people adding AWD (more than half), which may have resulted in a supply shortfall. Crank up the cost so fewer people order it.
Neat. I wish the Model 3 regen was just a tad stronger–there are some instances, out of my control, where I have to hit the real brakes. Another 50% would do it. It probably requires AWD, though, so as to not lose traction.
From one of Ingineerix’s YouTube videos, it seems the current regen limit is 70-something kW. Since the battery can take 120 kW during Supercharging, I think the battery isn’t the limiting factor here, just traction.
I hesitate to link to Jalopnik, but in the spirit of the best criticism coming from your fans, and the best praise coming from your detractors, here’s their review of the Model 3 P. It’s pretty glowing, though they acknowledge that only so much can be said about a performance car driven through the city.
Yeah, it sucks. Tesla’s gotta do what they gotta do to survive, but it still hurts. And some of their pricing is a little crazy–paint in particular should not cost that much (most other makers charge well under $1k for premium paint–for instance, the metallic paints for a BMW 3-series are $550 extra).
Which configs were you looking at? I guess if you’re in North Carolina, you probably want AWD… though I wonder how much of a benefit it really is in the snow. The traction control even for RWD should be pretty good.
I’m pretty well settled on the Blue Dual Motor non-performance edition with the Enhanced Autopilot.
I’ve been back and forth in the AWD or not. We do get a handful of snow storms every year which isn’t too much except it takes the city 2-3 days to dig us out and I don’t have the option to stay at home if I’m scheduled to work. My current vehicle is RWD and is atrocious in even the lightest of snow or ice so I end up driving my wife’s AWD SUV which leaves her stranded at the house with the kids on those days. I bet the single motor traction control would be adequate 90% of the time, but having some piece of mind would be worth the extra cost for us.
Yeah, I get it. I have some coworkers in NC, and while it’s fine most of the time, a few days a year it’s snowmageddon. They stay home, though about half the time the power/internet goes out too. Not an option for everyone…
Blue is definitely my second-favorite color. It’s a very rich-looking metallic. Heck, it might be tied with red, but they’re both beautiful.
If anyone is interested in placing a reservation for the S, the X, or the 3 performance, I can give my referral code that will give free supercharging for life. I think promo is good until Sept 16, after that the supercharging is only free for 1 year. PM me if interested.
I’m starting to swing back to the opinion that Tesla just isn’t going to make a $35,000 car. They’ve stopped making reference to the $35,000 base price on the website and on window stickers (link), and seeing what the did with bundling options on the Model S recently, I wonder if they are going to start the same with the 3. Like, all base Model 3s now come standard with the premium package base price now starting at $39 or $40 grand!!!
Once again, I’m on the rollercoaster of excitement that maybe I can get a Model 3 when my current lease ends, to the lows of this is just going to be another nice car that isn’t affordable.
The one remaining hope I have for the $35k car is that it’s an ego thing for Musk. He said they’d do it, so at some point they will. My bet was it won’t be here for a year, which is why I ordered the more expensive car instead of waiting for the cheaper one.
they build a token number of $35k cars and declare there’s no demand
they announce that the Model Y will start at $32k when you can buy it in 2022 or whatever, and everyone goes nuts how the Master Plan is working to trade off an affordable Model 3 for the promise of an even more affordable Y in the future (“He’s bet he company yet again! Yay!”)
The base model isn’t gone from their website. Go to their Model 3 page and scroll to specs. There is a button for “standard” with the standard battery and interior.
That said, the specific $35k figure does seem to be gone. On the other hand, Musk repeated the figure in the Q2 conference call.
I agree that there probably will be very few true base models sold. But I think there will be a fair amount sold for each of the individual standard options. Tesla would have to specifically require at least one package or something for the base model to be totally gone.
