Not a conservative but I bet it still happens to no small degree. A case study in evolution.
For our Canadian friends, remember what happened last year in Alberta (the Texas of Canada). Nothing is carved in stone.
That’s a given. Old school conservative would seem liberal at this point.
The Texans you knew all those years ago do not represent every Texan living here now.
I’m sorry you had a bad experience.
It’s edging that way, actually. It’s slower than I’d like, and rural areas are lagging of course, but some of the old crap is eroding. It’s more generational than an electoral cycle shift; the most hopeful signs are among kids, teens, and twentysomethings. They’ve got plenty of naivete, but they also generally seem to care far less about the old divisions.
Conservative whites who used to vote democrat who now vote republican wouldn’t have a huge impact on the culture.
What could be shifting the politics of Texas is the same thing that shifted places like North Carolina & Virginia.
Growth in urban areas
Growth of minority groups
Immigration from northern and western states among people with more liberal values
Millennial youth who have different attitudes on economic and social issues
Those 4 factors could move the state to the purple category the same way NC & VA moved around 2008.
So in Texas (and Georgia) it isn’t just the rural whites switching parties, it is the demographics of the electorate changing.
After the 2010 census, you had a number of smug people laughing at how northern industrial blue states lost some population. Well, now we know where they went 
I agree but would add a 5th factor for this election - Trump has alienated a significant chunk of religious conservatives in Texas who would typically vote GOP but reject him this time, as I mentioned up thread.
The things you note are significant but if my point proves to be true it could be what tips the balance now rather than it not happening until '20 or’24 as most pundits expect.
My thoughts exactly. Texas was SO Democratic Party that for years after it turned Republican I couldn’t believe it had happened.
Well, yeah. My point wasn’t that they were going to drop it, but rather that the Hispanic (really more the Mexican-American) voter base is sort of inherently conservative by nature, but that the Texas Republicans have painted themselves as the “angry white people’s party”, and that said otherwise conservative Hispanics vote Democrat due to the perceived threat from Republicans. In other words, many might vote Republican, except for the Republicans portraying themselves as specifically anti-Hispanic.
Yes, that was one thing the Bushes did have right since back in 41’s time - that the Latino communities were a potential source of “values voters” if they felt welcomed. But the Party allowed itself to go from being Conservatives to being Reactionaries, because the Angry White Guy bloc was large enough to win primaries and enough other people were willing to vote for Anyone But The “Liberal”, to be in play to win the generals.
Took Trump to start convincing some people that the World will not end, the dead will not walk, if you fail to vote for Whoever Has The “R”.
If the median voter in a state goes from conservative Democrat to conservative Republican, not much has changed by the label.
If the media voter goes from conservative Republican to moderate Republican or moderate Democrat, a lot has changed.
This change is the latter, while the change in the 1990s was the former.
In an earlier thread that I’m too lazy to hunt down, I promised to let Dopers vote on which charity I should contribute $500 to, if Texas should give its electoral votes to Hillary this year.
I meant that, and still do, which is why I’m bringing it up again here. At the time, though, I figured my money was pretty safe. Maybe it’s not as safe as it was, but that’s a good thing. So Texas Dopers, go vote, and make me cough up $500!
Unlike a certain Presidential candidate, I’ll actually pay up without having to be shamed into it by David Fahrenthold.
Exactly. Some years ago much was made of the growth of the Sun Belt compared with the Rust Belt, and that would strengthen Republicans as the southern states gained population and Electoral Votes. What they failed to realize was that many of the new immigrants brought more liberal values with them.
Yep, this is the first time I’ve seen Dem presidential ads on local media. The Trump supporters might have more signs in their yard, but they seem close to being balanced in raw numbers of supporters by Hilliary signs. I’ve had to keep my eye out to see bumper stickers or yard signs endorsing either. That leads me to thinking that the polling is right, and Texas might actually be a toss-up.
Now, my BIL had to deal with a bunch of Trump supporters with white supremacist tattoos and Confederate flags blocking traffic with an impromptu Trump rally in Arlington yesterday. However, I suspect that group may have limited voting rights due to their probable criminal histories. (Seriously, have you ever seen someone with a white supremacist tattoo that hadn’t committed a felony?)
The closest comparison I can come to the current presidential election for Texas is Ann Richards Vs. Clayton Williams in 90. Rich, flamboyant, idiotic candidate vs. a seasoned politician, and the politician squeaks it out. Ann positively dripped personality where Hillary doesn’t, but Trump’s a more flagrant idiot than even Clayton Williams. On the ground in one of the redder large cities in Texas, it looks like Hilliary very well might win it, but it’s a toss-up. It hasn’t looked that way before.
RTFirefly, if it happens, I’d like my 5 bills to go to the ACLU. My wife’s gonna vote for the same candidate, so does that mean you gotta cough up a grand if my dreams come true? 
(naw, she’s not a SDMB member)
There is an old saying about Texas: a Texas democrat is a republican in any other state. Just because democrats are gaining numerically, it will be a very cold day in Midland before Texas votes for a democratic president-IMHO.
It looks like he’s not on the ballot in Texas, more’s the pity. He might still get some write-ins, but I suspect that Johnson is going to be the default conservative protest vote in Texas.
Which would mirror what happened in Alberta: the right-wing Wild Rose party eroded the based of the center-right Progressive Conservative party, leaving left-ish New Labor to take the majority of seats and gain control. For as long as that lasts.
Could be, I know this is a huge issue in Utah where many GOPers are not comfortable voting for Trump.
If the core reason is religious people turned off by Trump, then sadly Texas in '16 is just a blip and in '20 it goes back to being a red state unless democrats start registering latinos there.
Can you not vote in Texas if you have a felony on your record? I know people think that about NY too, but in fact you can. You just can’t be in prison, or on parole for a felony conviction. Having one in your past really isn’t a problem.