That’s pretty much it in a nutshell; UT and OU are banking on the Big XII having some kind of convulsion and collapsing prior to 2025, which would let them and ESPN off the hook.
Presumably it’ll take the form of one of the better remaining teams (Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Virginia Tech) finding a new conference home and bailing before OU & UT are scheduled to move to the SEC. The big question there is whether anyone will get a conference offer that’s good enough to warrant jumping ship before UT/OU leave, or whether they’re going to ride out the Big XII because AAC or whatever G5 conference they’ll likely go to won’t pay as well.
I would be amused if OU and UT had to grind out several more lame duck Big XII seasons before going to the SEC, solely because the other schools are trying to ride that gravy train as long as humanly possible.
I’m hoping you thought you were typing “Iowa State” while your fingers typed “Virginia Tech”
I agree, this would be hilarious. Imagine Texas playing in Ames in 2023, or OU basketball on the road in Lawrence in 2024 … the abuse from the stands would be delicious. (This upcoming season is already going to be lit.)
I was under the impression that Texas and OU actually are indeed rich enough to pay the buyout penalty, and would prefer to begin play in the SEC as soon as possible, even as early as 2022. But we’ll see.
Even for UT, a $75 million payout would be painful. Athletics takes in a lot of money – about $200 million in total revenue in 2019-20 – but they also had $179 million in expenses. Still, I’m sure they could shake their donors and come up with it if they really wanted to. Just easier to weasel out their obligations as the Big 12 implodes.
I think it’s perhaps less the issue of buyout money (Texas was already filthy stinkin’ rich in the Big XII, they’ll be unimaginably swimming in gold in the SEC) as it is the SEC has no interest in TV income from their games going to the remaining Big XII teams.
As long as the Big XII survives, they own Texas’ and OU’s broadcast rights through 2025 - so the money from those UT-LSU football games and OU-Florida basketball matchups would go straight to Iowa State/Baylor/Kansas et al, and the SEC wants no part of that.
Plus, any public declaration of ignoring their contractual obligations through 2025 would mean even more penalties, so, there’s that.
That’s my understanding. According to what I’ve seen reported, there’s also an 18 month notice requirement before a school can exit the conference.
And while I think it would be hilarious to make UT and OU play the next four years in a zombie Big 12, it’s not really in anybody’s interest to drag this thing out. That’ll just result in a lot of money going to lawyers instead of athletic departments. I’m certain the remaining Big 12 schools will negotiate some sort of early exit for UT and OU in return for a big payout probably financed by ESPN.
Yeah, I suppose. You can negotiate to buy out anything. But the GoR is the reason 2025 is on everything “official” being announced right now, because that stays in effect until that year … unless the Big XII agrees to take a buyout to let it slide, or the conference dissolves.
I think there’s at least two issues at play: Texas and OU face penalties for leaving the Big XII without giving adequate notice, which applies to them regardless of when they actually leave, and then there’s also the Grant of broadcast Rights provisions up to 2025.
Looks like that’s the direction they’re heading though, with the recent announcement of the addition of BYU, Houston, UCF and Cincinnati to the Big 12.
If I were Bowlsby I’d totally make OU and UT stick it out as long as I possibly could, as a sort of retribution for jumping ship and leaving the conference worse than they found it.
I assume this makes it more likely that the Big 12 will cut a deal with UT and OU on an early exit, now that they have secured enough teams that they’ll be a viable conference (for now). As I mentioned upthread, ESPN will likely help finance an eyewatering figure for the remaining teams.
Maybe there would be some schadenfreude for Big 12 fans in making them stick it out, but if one thing is clear from all of this it’s that athletic directors and conferences put their fans’ desires a distant second to their university’s bottom line.
My feeling is that despite the amount of money they generate, they’re still something of a cancer for a conference, in that they’ve got attitudes and behaviors caused by decades of being THE dominant program and school in a very large state. Until very recently, A&M was the only team/school that really even could mount a challenge, and even there, UT still had the advantage in funding, visibility and legislative clout.
My hope but not expectation, is that UT will come into the SEC and be good conference members, and not try to leverage everything for themselves.
As a UCF fan, I’m conflicted. My freshman year ('99) was the first year of the post-Culpepper era, and our third season in I-A football. We beat Alabama in 2000, joined the MAC in 2002, joint C-USA in 2005, and joined the rump Big East/American in 2013 (and dominated it). I was quite happy being the big fish in a small pond, and eventually the playoff committee was going to have to let AAC schools into the playoff or lose all credibility.
But UCF is getting $7 million per year from the AAC rights deals, and even without Texas and OK, the Big 12 rights deal is going to be $20 million-plus per school (it’s currently $35 million each). That’s going to make it a hell of a lot easier to keep out coaches from getting poached. And getting to laugh at USF is its own reward.
