[QUOTE=BobLibDem]
I hate to be the voice of gloom, but I think Hillary wins TX, OH, and RI and goes on to win the nomination. The latest polls have shown a shift in her favor over the past few days. I think the negative ads are working for her.
[/QUOTE]
It’s possible, but I have to admit Obama’s got some strong momentum going for him. He’s in the lead, but the race is not over yet. At least this election is not a snoozefest after NH like the others were. Gawd, I hate fucking NH.
[QUOTE=DrDeth]
Gawd, I hate fucking NH.
[/QUOTE]
She said you weren’t so hot in bed yourself, bucko. 
[QUOTE=cricetus]
I wonder how much the “wanting it to be over” factor will play out tomorrow. Also the “ah, it’s no use” factor, with Clinon backers.
What time do the polls close? Will we know tomorrow night what’s happened?
[/QUOTE]
7pm CST for Texas. All others 8pm EST IIRC. Yes, we will know tomorrow night. I’m starting another thread on the theme of HRC dragging this on.
Since they’ll all close at the same time… and not too late. Good, thanks.
[QUOTE=cricetus]
Since they’ll all close at the same time… and not too late. Good, thanks.
[/QUOTE]
7:30 Eastern in Ohio.
And don’t forget the caucus in Texas (worth about 1/3 of the delegates) starts after the polls close there.
Bad news for Obama: the weather in Ohio tomorrow is gonna suck. As I type, it’s sleeting against the window, and it’s expected to be about 33 with rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow all day tomorrow. That’s not the sort of weather that the poorer people turn out in in great numbers. Remains to be seen whether or not the younger people will turn out in it.
Got a lovely attack ad from Clinton’s campaign in the mailbox today, accusing Obama of doing nothing when a Maytag or Whirlpool plant or some such closed in Illinois. Of course, it doesn’t say what he was supposed to have done, and it doesn’t say what Clinton has done when large plants in New York have closed the last few years. Timed nicely it is. Feh. I hate politics when it gets stupid. :mad:
[QUOTE=DSYoungEsq]
Bad news for Obama: the weather in Ohio tomorrow is gonna suck. As I type, it’s sleeting against the window, and it’s expected to be about 33 with rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow all day tomorrow. That’s not the sort of weather that the poorer people turn out in in great numbers. Remains to be seen whether or not the younger people will turn out in it.
[/QUOTE]
Obama’s crowd is traditionally the higher paid set and the college kids. Granted college kids aren’t rolling in cash but they’re not what I’d consider the “poorer people”. Wisconsin was cold and miserable on election day as was Maine and both showed excellent turn outs for Obama.
Clinton so far has done better with older voters; will they want to go out in such crappy weather?
Check out this article from CNN looking at how Texas Hispanics view Clinton and Obama. That demographic’s not necessarily monolithically hers, it appears:
NOTE: Don’t hate me for being correct. I don’t like it either.
I hope beating Hillary for the nomination will be enough of a “moral victory” for the Obama supporters. Because when it comes down to the general election, Obama doesn’t have a shot in hell against almost anyone the GOP could cough up, much less an Old White Man who is also a certified, big-time war hero.
I first brought this up* here and here a while ago in these fora and yes, it depresses me too. Still, the fact remains that when voters are all alone in the privacy of the booth not enough of them will be ready to vote for a black candidate.
Yes, one will get elected someday.
Yes, it’s high-time.
Yes, a black can’t get elected if he (or she) doesn’t run.
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
I would greatly prefer Obama over Clinton and I would prefer him over John McCain by a mile. But all of the shiny, happy, liberal optimism on an internet message-board that is light-years apart from the American mainstream (apart = ahead in this instance, IMO) just doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Sorry.
If it’s any consolation, Hillary couldn’t have beaten McCain (or Giuliani, or Thompson, or Romney) either. But that just makes this even more pathetic. It’s so utterly obvious and predictable. Come the day after the election, Democrats everywhere will ask the question that is starting to get real old: What The Hell Were We Thinking?
Yes, yes, I know. The Will Of The People and all that. And, “but… but… Obama was duly elected! We couldn’t have done anything anyway!!!”
Horseshit. Most of you realize that the party honchos have a great deal of power to influence who gets nominated. It is scandalous that a Republican will be allowed… no, aided and abetted… no, willfully paraded into the White House on a red carpet by clueless Democrats who should certainly know better by now.
Obama is a fine man. I would love to see him elected, so I hope I’m wrong. Please all you Knuckle-dragging, racist, Fox News hypnotized, mouth-breathing simpletons of Middle America prove me wrong!
But NO, they will say. “We’re at WAR so we need a MAN with little-brown-people-killin’ experience!!!”
and
“WWJD? Never elect a li’l woman or a NEE-gro!!! THAT’s what!!!”
Did you here at the SDMB know that the Jerry Springer Show viewers get to vote too? And that they DO?
Sigh… oh well. I wish I could feel better about this by predicting it, but it’s so damn obvious, so damn preventable, and so damn destructive to this country, that I don’t.
I just feel sick.
*Admittedly, back then I saw the nomination going to Hillary, not Barrack but both of these threads were about the inherent impossibility of *either *being elected.
[QUOTE=Jonathan Chance]
Brief, parenthetical aside…
Everyone sucks. My political reporters and I have barely slept for two weeks. We’ve met both Obamas, all THREE Clintons, and on Friday HRCs Deputy Chief of Staff just ‘dropped into’ the newsroom saying he was just walking down our main street and saw our newspaper and wanted to say ‘hi!’. He had with him the Mayor of a town in New York and the President of a business that HRC protected from overseas competition.
We’re exhausted and want it to be over. Just over.
[QUOTE=I Love Me, Vol. I]
I just feel sick.
[/quote]
With all the ugly stereotypes you’re putting out there, I’m not surprised.
[QUOTE=Marley23]
With all the ugly stereotypes you’re putting out there, I’m not surprised.
[/QUOTE]
Seriously.
If a Black man (or a White woman) can beat the other White men in the primaries, then he can beat one in the general. Unless racism is confined to the Republican party. In which case, they probably wouldn’t be voting for the whitest white Democrat from Vanilla City anyway.
Turning back to the Rhotexhiont primary, I think he gets Texas and Vermont while she gets the other two (her rhetoric indicates she doesn’t expect to win Texas anyway). The press covers the story as “Clinton stops Obama’s momentum” and the race drags on.
[sup]I believe Obama is going to surprise people and hold a strong lead.[/sup]
Depends on what you mean by surprise. I think his lead is going to be essentially unchanged, particularly with the extra caucuses in Texas.
Final predictions from The Daily Kos:
Ohio: Clinton +4
Texas: Obama +12
Rhode Island: Clinton +6
Vermont: Obama +35
Seems she’s taken another page from the Bush playbook. Clinton is running fake news ads in Ohio: link.
Is Newsday a reputable site? Huffingtonpost linked to it.
Yeesh.
[QUOTE=silenus]
Final predictions from The Daily Kos:
Ohio: Clinton +4
Texas: Obama +12
Rhode Island: Clinton +6
Vermont: Obama +35
[/QUOTE]
Kos himself admits most of his projections are based on gut-level instinct, but in this post he also said his Texas projection, which doesn’t square with any recent poll, is based on actual data of some kind. Speculation is that he knows something about the early voting totals. Also, Obama’s ground game in Texas is supposed to be unreal – in previous states, it’s won credit for allowing him to outperform the polls by an average of 8 points or so.
This Obama supporter is more nervous though. That said, mathematically, I don’t see how Clinton ever overtakes him, especially with Obama set to announce endorsements from 50 superdelegates tomorrow.