It’s not a very good counter, unfortunately: it assumes that all of a state’s delegates are allocated proportionately at the state level.
But most of them are allocated proportionately at the congressional-district level, which is what makes life interesting. In a CD with 6 delegates, a 58-42 win doesn’t do you any more good than a 58-42 loss; in one with 5 delegates, a 69% win doesn’t do you any more good than a 50.1% win. On the whole, it makes it harder to translate a middlin’ popular majority into a delegate majority of the same size.
Except in heavily black districts. Thanks to a few rounds of the GOP’s packing as many black votes as possible into as small a number of districts as possible, almost every state has a few districts that aren’t just majority black, but overwhelmingly black. And since the max of 8 delegates per CD goes to the districts that vote overwhelmingly Dem in general elections, which tend to be the overwhelmingly black districts, those tend to be districts that Obama can win 6-2 or 7-1.
I don’t know that I could do anything about the black districts in the counter, but I could easily adjust the function that converts % of the vote into numbers of delegates. Maybe take the x^3 function on the [-1,1] interval, which flattens out nicely in the middle, and do appropriate stretchings and shiftings to match it up to the [0%,100%] interval on the x-axis, and the [0, # delegates] interval on the y-axis.
It’ll last. Don’t bet that come fall, college campuses around the country will be frothing at the mouth for an Obama victory over McCain. Let’s just get him to the Nomination first shall we. One Day at a Time.
Of course, more moving of the goal posts. Clinton’s campaign knows she does notoriously bad in caucuses, and Obama does very well. This is inside bullshit that I think everyone will see right through. Just because Clinton raised 35 million in February - nealry 20 million less than Obama - she’s thinking it’s a resurgance…More BS. There are not enough rolleyes to be placed for her crap!
You know what pisses me off about all of this shit? It’s simply shades of Bush. When was the last time we had a President that told the truth at least some of the time? Bush is 100 percent spin, obviously. Can you believe he told us yesterday that there wasn’t going to be a recession? Does he think anyone believes him anymore? With HRC it’s more of the same. It’s simply bullshit every time she opens her mouth. I’m sick of it.
What the HRC camp ought to worry about though is if she didn’t set the bar high enough. I am not saying that Obama needs to win all four, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. What will she do then? I really hope that this crap is over on the 4th of March. Hillary has ruined every chance she has at being humble and bowing out. She should do it before March 4, and I don’t htink she will.
