I’m going to weigh in here with my gut March 4 prediction…based only on what I’ve been reading the last few days:
Rhode Island - Clinton 57, Obama 39
Vermont - Clinton 42, Obama 55
Texas - Clinton 47, Obama 49
Ohio - Clinton 54, Obama 43
Clinton stays in the race.
Also, this bothers me.
Don’t worry so much, she has to really blow Obama out of the water to stay in this thing. Not gonna happen.
Logically, yes, but if she wins both Rhode Island and Ohio, no matter how slim the margin in the latter state, I don’t see her conceding.
It depends on how the delegates fall. If she cut Obama’s lead by at least more than half, I think more and more superdelegates are going to make clear that they won’t help her make up the difference.
Me, I’d be surprised if she did come up with a net gain in delegates (that is, picked up more delegates than Obama Tuesday, not overtake him in the totals), and flabbergasted if such a gain wasn’t wiped out in the contests in Wyoming and Mississippi.
I don’t think this will go to Pennsylvania.
This won’t go past the end of the week. Even if she ekes out a small catch-up in the delegate count (and I do not expect that, quite the opposite in fact) the establishment will rally behind a leader saying that it is time to stop. Richardson today made it clear that he would plan on leading that charge if no one else does for the good of the party.
I just don’t see Hillary letting go that easily. I expect to see a bitter and drawn-out battle to the end. She doesn’t care what damage that will do to the party. She will do anything it takes to win, and if it means destroying the party to do so, she wouldn’t even blink. It is only her amazing arrogance and incompetence so far that gives me hope for the future.
While I agree with every point made…
I do hold out hope for one thing… other Senators and Democrats playing hardball about things she’ll care about - like running uncontested as a Senator next time and what committees she’s appointed to. I’m sorry, but sometimes hardball is necessary - and right.
If she can’t be gracious, she needs to be led out of the campaign.
You think they’re going to run another Democrat against an incumbent Senator? Unlikely.
I think it’s a trump card. Leak that to the press and see what happens…
It won’t take that. Obama widens his lead just a bit more and enough superdelegates jump ship, and the media starts treating his victory as a fait accompli. Clinton’s donors dry up, Obama’s skyrocket (to fight McCain, but he can use it to fight Clinton in the meantime), Obama takes the remaining primaries in a walk, and Clinton becomes as irrelevant as Huckabee is to the Republicans.
Look at RTFirefly’s math from earlier in this thread. While it would be best if Clinton just dropped it, she doesn’t need to in order for Obama to win this cleanly.
That’s if she is logical. But I still think she’ll take everybody down before she’ll give up.
Well… then it moves from hamartia and straight into hubris…
She could. I’m just hoping the public embarrassment would be enough to sway her - if appeals to her better nature fail.
This is where I start seeing problems arise… 
How? If she doesn’t win *big *Tuesday and again in Pennsylvania, she can’t possibly win. The media will realize this and her continued attacks will just be… sad.
Unless she has some dirt on Obama, I doubt she’ll damage anyone but herself and her husband.
Not that I think she’s that desperate or deluded. There’s 2012. And a career in the senate is a pretty good consolation prize. In fact, worse comes to worse, I think the party will try to bribe her with her pick of committees etc in the Senate. Majority whip, perhaps?
Hey guys. None of this is relevant now that Diebold has accidentally leaked the results of the election.
-FrL-
Going this week will make her into Hillarabee. It won’t happen.
That’s news to me. I filled out my OR ballot yesterday. Oregon is all mail-in. There are no actual polling places. It’s like the entire state is absentee.
Certainly she can. Do the numbers, but be sure to count all the SuperDelegates.
That makes it possible, but is it probable that enough superdelegates will take her side for her to win?
No, especially with people like Bill Richardson saying today that whoever is ahead on Wednesday Morning should ne the nominee. I certainly don’t see Barack losing, and if by some freak he does lose in pop in one of the two big states it won’t be by a large enough margin. I have done the math, so has the media, and people are not giving Clinton that much hope of pulling it off.
I have no doubt she will pull out every gun she has, but it’s not going to be enough.