That 2014 asteroid, impact questions,

Factual Questions
1

Ok,

It is 2014. The big rock QQ47 is going to hit Earth, but no one really knows where. Most of us are running for cover, but I am staying put. This rock supposedly has the impact power of 20 million Hiroshima bombs. Or the power of the flactulence of a bunch of rednecks after a Texas Chili cookoff and Mexican food buffet.

For the sake of argument, how far away would I have to live from the impact to not have the impact affect mein any initial way? If I lived in Omaha Nebraska, and the big stone hits Siberia, or the Falkland Islands, would it affect my safety at all? If we find out, maybe by 2008-2010 that Big Daddyis coming, can we build fallout shelters to save ourselves? If Big Daddy was known by the upper levels of our government (or any government) to come regardless, would they even announce it to the public before its too late, to prevent a panic the human race has never seen, just to gamble that the rock will fall in the middle of the South Atlantic or Indian Ocean and not Omaha where I live?

Options:

Middle of the Pacific Ocean- Let’s say this thing drops right on Honolulu. How far will the title wave go? Will it drown Alaska, San Francisco, Taiwan, and Japan?

Middle of the Indian Ocean-Pretty safe, only take out the Maldives, Sri Lanka, maybe south India, Madagascar. Best spot to drop the thing.

South Atlantic-Falls on uninhabited Bouvet Island in the South Atlantic.

Middle East-How can I put this delicately that if this rock slammed in the Middle East region, that this might be a good thing in terms of world peace?

North Pole-If this rock hits the north pole, will it melt the ice caps? maybe someone can explain the correlation between impact and heat, except for the fact that any object entering our atmosphere gets hot due to gravity, so the human race will be dealing with a hot assed rock. We can say goodbye to coastlines, especially Florida, the Netherlands and Bangladesh.

If, the rock hits California and nails the San Andreas fault, will it cause “The big one” that destroys San Francisco, LA and the California coast?

If it dropped on Mississippi, will it really only do $4.12 worth of damage?

If this thing drops on Omaha, how far is the “kill zone” from the epicenter out? I would think that instead of radiation, that dust will choke any initial survivors.

Lastly, is there any valuable minerals like uranium, gold, zinc, silver or whatnot that would interest President Cheney? That’s if God does not take mercy on the human race and drops it on the Middle east?

If it does fall in 2014, I will be at home somewhere, smoking a joint watching CNN with a “Beam me up Scotty” T-shirt on.

2

There is no relationship between impact and heat, merely friction and heat. Just think of rubbing any two objects together… such as your hands. Falling objects get hot due to friction with the air as they fall.

As for what I would do the day the rock falls, I plan on getting together with a few of my closest friends and rubbing…

3

I saw the Discovery Channel Documentary. If by some small chance the bastard hits, it’s gonna suck no matter where you live in relation to the impact site.

If it hits the San Andreas Fault, that will be the “big one.”

President Cheney will be dead long before 2014. My psychic told me so.

Omaha? You live in Omaha? Ever see Boys Don’t Cry?

If it lands on Bouvet Island, The Falklands will be the first to go. Which may or may not be a bad thing, if you like the idea of millions of dead sheep.

In short, my friend, Don’t worry about it. If the impact doesn’t kill you, the nuclear winter to follow probably will. Myself, I plan to stock up on enormously expensive scotch and spend my final days in a bacchanalian state of bliss.

4

Lets keep the damn thing away from Omaha please.

From this BBC link, it doesn’t look like we have anything to worry about.

5

Well, that’s not quite right- the rock will still be almost completely as cold as space when it hits the solid surface of the Earth. Only a thin layer of the outside will be heated by the atmosphere.

All the energy of impact, the momentum will be converted into heat as the rocky crust of the Earth decelerates the meteor.
This will cause a circular crater to form, almost independent of the angle of incidence;
and an enormous superheated shockwave will spread out carrying molten rock particles and superheated atmosphere for hundreds of hkilometers.

But this is not going to happen.
let’s think about these odds;
one in a million-
very, very low

and if it is a tenth the size of the Dino killer-

dinokiller asteroids hit the Earth about every hundred million years, but ones ten times smaller will be about ten times as frequent-
say every ten million years;
for every one that hits the Earth we will have a million that miss-

sooo,

that means we have had an asteroid this big come this close about every ten years or so - since the beginning of recorded history this has been going on, and none has hit the Earth.
we are in no danger, except from the media reaction.

However,
imagine the likely scenario,
coming to a planet near you
some time in 2014
as this asteroid gets nearer …
when it is six months away
the orbital calculations might show it has a 1 in 20 chance of hitting the earth, and a 1 in 5 chance of hitting a populated area if it does…
panic rises…
government denials are followed by confirmation of the facts…
chaos ensues…
rioting, religious mania…
you tell your boss to take a hike…
you tell the girl in the video shop you love her;
drunkeness, debauchery…

the asteroid misses…
red faces all round.

This scenario will be repeated every ten years or so until the NEO’s are all grabbed and exploited by sky-mining companies that would be legally responsible in the event of an Earth Impact- they would pretty soon all be moved out of Earth-crossing orbits.

SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

6

To clarify eburacum45’s post, the heating is due to compression of the air in front of the supersonic meteor, not friction. Meteors and asteroids generally have fairly poor thermal conductivity, and the outer surface can get extremely hot without heating the inside much.

7

I’m sure it wouldn’t all be this good. :wink:

8

I just hope we don’t have a remake of *Armageddon come out of this, whether or not the asteroid actually strikes *. :rolleyes: I wish the chances for this to happen were only one in a million.

9

Texas Chili = farting rednecks
destroy the Middle East = a good thing
all of Mississippi = worthless

President Cheney?

destroy/kill all inhabitants Indian Ocean = best choice

melt the polar caps = gravity/heat
quote: If it does fall in 2014, I will be at home somewhere, smoking a joint watching CNN with a “Beam me up Scotty” T-shirt on.

I was gonna seriously be on your ass about a few things until I read the last quote. :wink:

10

I didn’t see the Discovery Channel’s take on this rouge asteroid, and its predicted orbit.

Did the Discovery Channel give a range of error on the calcs? I mean, did they hype-up that it’s definitely going ot hit the Earth, or is it (at present) predicted to pass between the moon and earth?

Will the story be repeated? In the meantime, I better go buy some asteroid repellant! :smiley:

  • Jinx

P.S. The real question is: Do we want to live to see it picked up by “Ripley’s Believe It Or Not” which, unfortunately, is planning on making a comeback?

11

I don’t know why everyone’s so worried. All we have to do is all get together a few months before the predicted impact and zap it with our 1920’s-style Death Rays … :cool::wink:

12

Is that anything like the rouge nations we’re always hearing about ?

13

Naah. Use “Preparation A”. Soothes and eliminates asteroids every time. :slight_smile:

14

Asteroid alert downgraded
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

if there is risk later in the 21st century of a collision we should start moving it now- a little movement now will be thousands of miles in a few decades.
Even silicaceous asteroids are valuable, as sources for solar cell wafers - most of the energy required for life support and other functions will come from photovoltaics, as well as electrically powered ion engines; iron asteroids are valuable for construction, and the carbonaceous type will be valuable for the new carbon bucky fibre and diamondoid materials;
comets provide water ifyou can grab one; aluminium and oxygen make rocket propellant …

it is all worth money- note I don’t expect this to be exported to Earth, but to be used in space- although asteroid material which has no immediate value can be used as counterweight in rotating tether configurations, some of which may be carried to Earth eventually.

SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

15

The probability of a potential impact is measured on the Torrino Scale with 0 being a definite miss and 10 being a definite hit.

According to an interview I heard on BBC Radio 4 this asteroid rates a 1 and is therefore very unlikely (1 in 909000) to hit us.

Thus (if we are all still around) I would not reccomend telling the boss what you think of him/her.

However, if the astronomers and statisticians are wrong then say goodbye to life as we know it. The survivors of the initial impact will face massive tidal waves and /or firestorms and dust clouds blocking out the sun making the prospect for life very bleak.

Even though the prospect of annihilation by this particular hazard is small don’t be too optimistic, Martin Rees (the Astronomer Royal) reckons that the human race has only got a century left max.

Have a nice day