I noticed that Ottawa has one great line whereas the Ducks have 8 top 30 scorers. So, defensively speaking, maybe Neidermayer, Pronger and Pahlsson should be the right defensive combo to stop or contain Heatley, Spezza, and Alfredsson? Is it just that easy? What defensive pairings will be needed to stop Anaheim’s 2 top scoring lines, not to mention that the defense also scores goals as well?
I really should stop looking ahead to Ottawa when Detroit still has life…but Rysto, I’m giving you something to think about.
1)No. Pittsburgh played young against the Sens. They didn’t have as much experience and it showed.
2)New Jersey played to their ability against the Sens. They made it into the playoffs due to the workhorse efforts of their goalie, Martin Brodeur who most certainly did not play to his ability.
3)Buffalo played poorly against everyone. They shouldn’t have had the problems that they had with the Islanders, who just barely coasted into the playoffs. They shouldn’t have had problems with the Rangers who only made it to the second round because Atlanta failed to show up at all.
Not what I said. Ottawa is certainly a skilled team, but the teams they played on the way up could certainly have done better. That’s what I’m saying.
I will concede that Selanne’s goal was the product of hard work on the forecheck, though lots of hard work on the forecheck comes and goes without a player getting the puck sent right to him behind the defense for a clear one on one against the goaltender. Regardless, Selanne’s skill made the difference.
But I do not agree that either Anaheim or Detroit is on a roll. They are slogging it out against each other, trading wins and losses up until game 5, when an overtime goal gave the Ducks a second win in a row. And as stated above, I don’t think it’s a give that Anaheim will win a third in a row tonight (which would probably constitute a “roll”). Even if they do, they’ll still move on to face a team that has won three series while losing only three games. That sort of thing can make a team highly confident. I still like Ottawa’s chances.
Ottawa’s offensive depth will need to pick it up in the Finals, to be sure. Don’t underrate Ottawa’s forwards beyond the top line, though. Each and every one of Ottawa’s lines is capable of chipping in goals. That they haven’t to date is a bit of a concern for me. The third line definitely needs to produce more offence. Still, every Ottawa forward(besides Eaves, who has been injured for most of the playoffs) and all but 2 Ottawa defencemen(I’m counting Schubert as a defenceman) has scored at least one goal in these playoffs. The rest of the lines spread it around more, but they get the job done when needed.
To be honest, I think that the best case scenario for Ottawa would be to have Chris Pronger and Scott Neidermayer lined up against the Spezza line. Yes, Ottawa’s top line would be very hard pressed to score, but that would give Ottawa’s other three lines to free reign to prey upon Anaheim’s weaker depth defencemen with our heavy forecheck. Ottawa’s greatest challenge in a Ducks-Senators series would be to nullify that one-two punch of Pronger and Neidermayer(well, that and score on JS Giguerre). Matching both up against the Spezza line would accomplish that nicely for Ottawa.
At the risk of coming into this debate late, this is one of those weird arguments that attempts to turn strength into weakness by ignoring the fact that sports is a zero sum game. Ottawa has annihilated three 100-point teams and what you seem to be saying is that BECAUSE they’ve annihilated their opponents, that’s somehow indicative that they’re not as good a team as the 12-3 record would suggest. I admit that based on this logic, I don’t understand what Ottawa could do to prove they’re a championship-calibre team. Would it look better if their opponents has beaten them more? Doesn’t that really defy any sort of logic or common sense?
It’s easy to say now in retrospect that Ottawa’s opponents had weaknesses, but
All teams have weaknesses, and if you think the Ducks or Red Wings don’t, boy, are you about to be surprised, and
Strangely, the experts didn’t seem to think the Penguins, Devils and Sabres had obvious tragic flaws; the Senators were NOT a consensus pick to win any of their first three series. The media was generally split in their predictions.
No team in the playoffs has had as many different players score a goal as the Senators have. The Ducks have had 13 scorers, the Senators 16. The difference between the two teams isn’t that the Ducks score more goals after their top 3 guys, because they don’t. It’s that the Senators’ top line scores more than the Ducks’ top line. Again, it’s just silly to somehow turn that around and pretend it’s an advantage for the Ducks that the Senators have a better top line; it’s no different from me suggesting that the Ducks having a better goalie is somehow a disadvantage. I’m not sure how one can seriously suggest the Ducks have more offensive depth. The Ducks are not as good a scoring team, as evidenced by the fact that they don’t score as many goals. I mean, what I’m reading here is just a Ducks fan talking.
Now, the Ducks DO have a significant advantage; J.S. Giguere, or at least his equipment (Jesus, they have to do something about that, ya know) is a better goalie than Ray Emery. But, having watched both teams, I just don’t see that the Ducks are quite as good a team in any other respect; Ottawa’s got a significant advantage on their #1 line and more depth and shotblocking in the defensive corps. Niedermayer and Pronger are famous, but the Senators blue line from one to six is better.
Congratulations to the Ducks. Detroit tried to make it interesting, but in the end they put their energy into the wrong period. You simply can’t let a team outshoot you 2-1 in two periods and expect to come back.
And congrats to the Red Wings for taking it farther and making it more interesting than most expected. Hopefully we can do better next season.
More thoughts tommorow. Tis late and I need sleepy sleep.
I think you will probably see Pronger and Beauchamin paired up to go against any line of Carlyle’s choosing and Neidermayer and O’Donnell paired up and subject to Carlyle’s choosing…and Ottawa will probably see very little of the other defensemen; Huskins usually fills in if any of the aforementioned defensemen end up in the bin…here’s proof. If Ottawa is gonna score, it will have to be on the PP with quick & crisp passing to force Giguere into a lot of lateral movement. I know Ottawa is capable of this, and that is the biggest weakness I do see if one of Anaheim’s D end up in the box.
Ottawa’s primary object is going to be to force O’Donnell and Beauchamin to handle the puck and make the first pass out of the zone. No amount of pressure is going to make Pronger or Neidermayer make a mistake, but O’Donnell and Beauchamin could be forced to make a mistake. The tricky bit will be getting enough pressure on one of those two and making sure that there’s no pass available to their partner, while still keeping the third forward high to defend against the rush. The series could be won or lost on whether Ottawa is able to get enough pressure to force mistakes.
Honestly, though, “Ottawa’s not going to score 5-on-5?” Could you give the second highest scoring team in the league any less respect?
Speaking of scoring, do you really expect the Perry-Getzlaf-Penner line to be able to carry you so easily? Phillips and Volchenkov are going to make the Selanne line disappear(they’ve been doing it all playoffs to far better lines) and the Pahlsson line will have their hands full just trying to defend against the Spezza line. Redden/Meszaros vs. Perry, Getzlaf and Penner is the other key match up in this series. If Ottawa wins that one, Anaheim is done.
RickJay…it’s never too late! (unless game 7 was yesterday)
Yeah, it does seem to be a another zero-sum game, but the often heard quote is that “Defense wins championships.” is repeated throughout all of the major sports, including hockey. Ottawa outscored their opponents based on their weak goaltending (read: defense) throughout the playoffs…compare the goaltender’s GAA for each opponent’s goalie for Ottawa and Anaheim:
For Ottawa:
Miller…2.22
Brodeur…2.44
Fleury…3.76
For Anaheim:
Luongo…1.77
Hasek…1.79
Backstrom…2.22
Now it seems easy to explain this away with, “The Western teams have weaker offense”, but the shot totals average 30.34 (971 shots/32 games) for Ottawa’s opposing goalies vs. 29.03(1016 shots/35 games) for Anaheim’s opposing goalies…a difference of 1.3 (4.5%) more shots per game advantage for the East, but the Goals Against is 2.63 (84 goals / 32 games) for Ottawa’s opposing goalies and 2.00 (70 goals / 35 games) for Anaheim’s opposing goalies…which means a .63 GAA (a whopping 31.25%) increase. So, although the East had better offense by 4.5% in shots taken and scored 31.25% more than the West, I would argue that the goaltending (defense) was much weaker in the East and I suspect the same will be true here. I don’t think Ottawa has met a defense and goaltender in the playoffs that are close to the caliber of Anaheim.
Ducks and Wings has weaknesses, just not as many and harder to exploit. Injury to a key member though, can be catastrophic to either team, including the Sens.
As for the media, I believe they said the same thing about the 2003 Ducks not able to win any of their series, only to come 1 game short of the Cup. Media is good for reporting, but not opinionating. They are on the same level as the rest of us. Here’s some media fodder.
Quack, quack, quack! That’s me!
I will again stick with the Defense wins championships shtick…and I see the Ducks scoring more on Ottawa than they did against the other teams because of weaker goaltending. Emery will have to pull 4 HUGE games outta his ass to win the cup. Heh, I guess Giguere will have to also. :smack:
Famous because they are lights out when it matters…and guess what…this matters. I see Beauchamin and O’Donnell not getting the respect they deserve, but that will come shortly. And Ottawa better keep their heads up in the corners, because these guys finish their checks in the Defensive end, and our forecheckers live to prey on those who meddle a little to long in the offensive corners. Ottawa is “heavy-leaning” team, but Anaheim is a “heavy-hitting” team. They will wear down a team as time goes on with their physicality. I predict a May v. Neal fight in game 1 to set the tone.
And of course, good luck to both teams in the finals.
Screw that! I put $20 on the Ducks at 4-1 odds. DUCKS! DUCKS! DUCKS!*
*Under normal circumstances I hate the Ducks. I also think “Ducks” is the lamest name for a sports franchise since “Mighty Ducks.”
You know, every bloody round the opposition has gone on about how they’re going to expose Ray Emery. Hasn’t happened yet, and frankly, if the Buffalo Sabres couldn’t do it, I can’t see how the Ducks are.
I am a season seat holder for the duckies. And let me say that for the first half of the year there was not a team who could touch them. They played that well. Then they had some injuries, didn’t play quite as well. The injured players returned, but they still were not quite as good as they were the first half. But they are still a great team.
I have enjoyed the playoff games. What fun.
Not to make anyone jealous, but I have tickets to all the finals games in Anaheim (actually I have been to all the playoff games). I am the one in the duckie jersey waving an orange towel, you can’t miss me.
I’m rooting for Ottawa. No predictions, no exhaustive analysis–just saying I’d like to see Ottawa take this one. I think it’s time a Canadian team won the Cup for a change.
I have been fine, if you want to join me though you will have to “take out” my brother for the other ticket. But he might fight back, so beware.
You should have been nice to me earlier (well ok I haven’t been around for a year or two, but that doesn’t make a difference) cause I had an opportunity to buy tickets before the general public after the game on Tuesday.
The Ducks are a great organization. Susan and Henri are great. I got my post season tickets for a huge discount. For being a season seat holder I got a free jersey at the start of the season and then for a Christmas present they gave us fleece blankies.
They also brought in Brian Burke. When we went of for season seat selection Burke and Carlyle and Henri and Susan were there to talk with us, there were free drinks alcoholic and non alcoholic, the Angels never have the big boys at their seat selection days and only serve coffee.
In fact, history suggests defense DOESN’T trump offense in the Finals. In cases where one team both scored and allowed more goals than the other, the superior offensive team wins the Finals far more often than the superior defensive team:
2006 - Carolina (Offense) beat Edmonton (Defense)
2004 - Tampa Bay (Offense) beat Calgary (Defense)
2001 - Colorado (Defense) beat New Jersey (Offense)
2000 - New Jersey (Offense) beat Dallas (Defense)
1997 - Detroit (Defense) beat Philadelphia (Offense)
1996 - Colorado (Offense) beat Florida (Defense)
1992 - Pittsburgh (Offense) beat Chicago (Defense)
1991 - Pittsburgh (Offense) beat Minnesota (Defense)
1990 - Edmonton (Offense) beat Boston (Defense)
1989 - Calgary (Offense) beat Montreal (Defense)
1988 - Edmonton (Offense) beat Boston (Defense)
I could go on but won’t. I realize it’s axiomatic to assume defensive teams have an advantage in the playoffs, but it’s indisputably false. Offense-oriented teams win the Cup more often.
Ottawa has two Minnesotans on their team while Anaheim has three. Advantage: Ducks.
A guy I went to high school with played for Ottawa for several seasons. He was a dick head who tried to fight my brother once. Admittedly, this kind of contradicts #1.
Emery’s mask seems to have gay Elvis painted on it. This looks like crap even relative to the super tacky genre of air-brushed goalie art.
Back when round 1 was a couple of games underway, in my first post to this thread back on page 3, I had predicted…
Well I missed on how well the Sens have played, (particularly Emery and Alfie) and I just wanted to update my finals prediction.
Ducks over Sens in seven games, with game seven going into OT.
This is too close to call.
If the Sens win, I’ll have to buy RickJay’s membership because Alfie is a shoo-in for the Conn Smythe.
If the Ducks hope to win, Getszlaf, Penner, and Perry need to continue to score.
Pronger’s suspension may have dropped his stock a bit on the MVP award, but IMO he’s still the leading Duck candidate.
Seeing how no one noticed, liked, or commented on my previous pics I posted… I’ll post someMORE.
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