The 2008 Presidential election: How will the Reps screw it up?

In My Humble Opinion
21

Condaleeza Rice will not come even close to the nomination in 2008, no matter what. She has never held an elected position, she’s Bush’s client. Despite what some think, the GOP would kill to nominate a conservative black woman. But Condi’s not it. If she wants to be president some day she’s going to have to do what Hillary is doing…serve as senator or governor for a couple of terms first.

The Republicans could screw up by nominating somebody from the Bush administration, or a Bush, or a Bush family retainer, or a Senator who is closely tied to the Bush administration. I somehow think they’ll manage to avoid this, though. Nominate some southern governor with no national record and the sleaze and incompetance of the Bush administration can be sloughed off like a snake shedding its skin. Look for Bush to take some thumpings from his own party before the election. If he’s a team player he’ll sit still for it…I imagine Cheney and Rove will sit him down and explain that he’s got to take it like a man.

Another potential pitfall is an extremely contentious primary season. The republicans haven’t had a wide-open nomination in forever, even Bob Dole’s run was pretty calm. In 2000 Bush was annointed before the primaries even started. But this time there might be some bruises, given this here newfangled interweb and the gaffewatchers and dirty tricksters and suchlike. Plenty of opportunity for some conservative blogospheric fratricide with no front-runner to rally around.

22

I think the question really is how they will NOT screw it up.

The GOP in my view is a fractious coalition that becomes more unglued every month. You’ve got the Buchanan isolationist wing that is thoroughly disgusted by the war. You’ve got the social conservatives, impatiently waiting for action on their agenda. You’ve got the fiscal conservatives, disgusted by the barrels of Bush red ink. You’ve got the libertarians, disgusted by the Patriot Act and the warrantless wiretapping. You’ve got believers in honest government disgusted by the level of Republican corruption. These groups may not have anywhere to go, but they may not be as faithful in the future.

They lose big by nominating anyone in the image of Bush. Condi would be a bigger disaster for the Pubs as Hillary would be for the Dems. They lose by taking no action to reduce the deficit. They lose if Iraq stops circling the drain and starts to go down it.

To win, they need to nominate someone that can appeal across party lines and that isn’t currently supporting the war. When you look at who’s out there, those pickings are slim indeed.

23

I *knew *that video would come in handy one day! rummages in drawer

I agree that the Republicans need to steer clear of any Bush-affiliated people at this point. My concern is how strongly the social conservative side of the party can influence the chosen candidate.

24

Yep, and that’s GWB’s plan.