The 2015 NBA Playoffs!

The Game Room
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After 82 games, the last seeding for the playoffs were decided on the last half of the last day of play. And even though I’m terrible at it, I’m going to accurately predict the entire first round!

WEST

I really like that we’re seeing some new match ups in the West. It seems every year there’s a Spur vs. Mavericks matchup, a Grizzlies vs. Clippers or Warriors vs. Clippers. This year gives the West teams a good opportunity to develop some interesting rivalries. And if the same old teams end up meeting in a later round, it will be all the more intense.

#1 Golden State Warriors (67-15)
vs.
#8 New Orleans Pelicans (45-37)

The Warriors have the best record in the league, great defense, terrific shooters, and an MVP candidate in Steph Curry. They’ve got the biggest point differential we’ve seen in a while. Anything less than the title would be a bust to them.

The Pelicans finally got the 8th seed by winning against a hot San Antonio Spurs team that needed a win to keep the 2nd seed in the west. Anthony Davis is a star that’s just on the cusp of superstardom. He’s big but has point guard skills, can do everything on the court, and still young.

While I can see Davis going crazy and dropping a triple double while scoring 30+ points in a game, I don’t think its enough to stop the Warriors for more than one game. They could very likely get swept.

Prediction: 4-1 Warriors

#4 Portland Trailblazers (51-31)
vs.
#5 Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

Portland’s been consistently in the top 4 of the West the entire season but late injuries have really slowed them down. They lost Afflalo until perhaps the 2nd round if they make it, and Batum is out for the season. They still have Aldridge and Lillard, but the team’s only 4-6 in their last 10. Owing to the fact that they are a division winner, they get the higher seed but the Grizzlies will have homecourt

Memphis has also been one of the better teams in the west, but a 5-5 record in the last 10 has dropped them to 5th. They had consistently been the #2 seed but on the last day of play, they were edged out but the Rockets and Clippers.

Memphis is sort of on a freefall but luckily they meet the only other West team that’s been worse than they are recently. Its a match between Portland’s depressed offense vs. Memphis’s defense. If they can keep it under 90 points, Memphis will win

Prediction: 4-2 Grizzlies

#3 Los Angeles Clippers (56-26)
vs.
#6 San Antonio Spurs (55-27)

Luckily for the fans and unluckily for each other, both teams come in hot to the playoffs winning 9 of their last 10. The Spurs are of course the defending champs, and as they drink from the hidden Fountain of Youth that Popovich has mixed into their Gatorade, they continue to play smart and play together. Last year’s Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard seems to be the real deal as he’s been putting up terrific all-around numbers since he came back from injury. The Spurs are rounding into form at the right time.

The Clippers, having been doubted for most of the season, cleaned up their act and has a nice little run going for them. Chris Paul continues to amaze and the plays of Griffin and Jordan seemed to step up in these last few weeks. In the last 4 years, the Heat, Spurs, and Clippers have had the best records in the league. The first two teams have championships to show for it and its been a knock on Chris Paul that he’s never even gone to a conference championship.

Experience counts and until someone knocks out the Spurs, I’m going to favor them. That said, I think it will be close. It may just come down to how many free throws Deandre Jordan can hit when Pop starts fouling him.

Prediction: 4-3 Spurs

#2 Houston Rockets (56-26)
vs.
#7 Dallas Mavericks (50-32)

Houston seemed dead in the water after Dwight Howard was injured for a long time and losing defensive guard Patrick Beverley, but on the back of MVP candidate James Harden, they’ve miraculously taken the 2 seed away from 3 other teams that could have had it on the last day of the season. Harden has upped his game even more than last year, he’s no longer just a one dimensional scorer. His defense has improved and its no doubt that Houston wouldn’t be in this position without him playing out of his mind.

Dallas retooled their roster by adding in Rondo for defense. Now is his time to shine. Is he still the 10+ assist guy he was in Boston even on a bad team or is his shooting and surliness going to harm Dallas. Rumors are that he won’t be returning, but if they get to the 2nd round, maybe that will change his mind. Rick Carisle is a great coach and took the Spurs to 7 games last year, he is underrated and could give Houston fits. Add to that Mark Cuban’s dislike of Houston GM Daryl Morey and stealing Chandler Parsons from the Rockets and this could wind up to be a great series

Prediction: 4-3 Rockets

EAST

I’ll be honest and say that I haven’t followed the East as much as the West, not even close. So I don’t know a whole lot about it. Maybe because of that, I don’t see as much interesting match ups as I do with the West.

#1 Atlanta Hawks (60-22)
vs.
#8 Brooklyn Nets (38-44)

Ugh, is this the largest difference between team records in recent history? I know the Celtics won 66 games and Lebron had some 60+ seasons in Cleveland, but I don’t know how bad the 8th seed was in those years. This year, it just seemed the East was so bad for so long. They made up for it towards the 2nd half of the season, but in the first 3 months the West had something like a 70% win rate against the East.

Due to that, I don’t think the Hawks will get a true test until the 2nd round. To me, the jury’s still out on them. In the last 5-10 years, they’ve been historically beaten up a lot in the first round. While I think they’ll win handedly this year, I cannot trust this team until I see them going against a team like Chicago or Cleveland.

Prediction: 4-1 Hawks

#4 Toronto Raptors (49-33)
vs.
#5 Washington Wizards (46-36)

These two teams haven’t had a lot of success recently until the last 2 years. This year, both of them raced out to pretty hot starts until eclipsed by Atlanta (then Cleveland got their act together and Chicago started grinding up wins again). As such, they get to face each other. Other than John Wall and Bradley Beal, I cannot name another player on either of these teams. But we all know Wall’s a star and if he can put his team on his back and take out the Raptors, then beat or give a good showing against the Hawks, then this team will be solidified in the East for years to come. I don’t know enough about the Raptors to even offer an opinion on what they may do.

Prediction: 4-3 Wizards (when all else fails, go with the team that has the best player)

#3 Chicago Bulls (50-32)
vs.
#6 Milwaukee Bucks (41-41)

The Bulls will only go as far Derrick Rose carries them but unfortunately for them, he’s on a bum knee and bum ankles. After a season of injuries and chatter about if Rose is returning too quickly or not quick enough, all of that will be forgiven if he manages to take them to the 2nd round at least.

Luckily they have the Bucks who managed to eke out a 0.500 record after their star draft pick Jabari Parker went down for the year with an ACL tear. They are limping into the playoffs and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get swept. The only consolation is that we get to hear announcers try to pronounce Giannis Antetokounmpo for at least 4 more games. But even without Rose, the Bulls are heavy favorites.

Prediction: 4-0 Bulls

#2 Cleveland Cavaliers (53-29)
vs.
#7 Boston Celtics (40-42)

Boston sprints to the finish line and makes the playoffs, saving the networks the tragedy of having the first playoffs without either LA, NY, or Boston in it. Boston’s in the midst of a rebuilding project that seems be ahead of schedule. To be honest, it probably would have been better for them to have missed the playoffs, that would be one extra draft pick they get. Now they run into the reformed Cavaliers lead by Lebron James.

I’ll be perfectly honest, I hated Lebron James. Part of it was that he was ascending and taking Kobe’s crown and part of it was all of the perceived mental breakdowns he’s had and a big part of it was The Decision debacle. I’m glad I can unhate him again, because he’s truly a great player and fun to watch. When he came back to Cleveland, it became the only time where I’d even consider rooting for that city. Frankly I feel bad for them and its out of pity, but its out of my hands so I can use whatever excuse I want to root for them. I think they’ll destroy the Celtics and take out the Bulls if Rose isn’t 100% healthy and we know he’s not. It took them a little while to round into form but after Lebron came back from that 2 week vacation, the team’s been one of the best in the league. This will also be Kevin Love’s first time in the playoffs and I think he’ll push himself to excel.

Prediction: 4-0 Cavaliers

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Not sure but the '94 Nuggets with 42 wins took down the Sonics with 63 wins. That’s got to be the biggest win deficit for the playoff series winner.

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Kobe vs. LeBron is like Aliens vs. Predator. A plague on both their houses. I know this makes me unusual since most basketball fans stan for at least one of them.

I disliked LeBron way before the decision. Mostly because of your last point. He’s not that fun to watch, really. Only when he’s going coast to coast. In the half court “LeBron ball” is stagnant, lots of iso-dribbling then passing off at the last second, terrible footwork, running over players while the refs look the other way, crab dribbling…no thanks. Personality wise, he’s an entitled cornball.

I’m curious to see if Cleveland can sleepwalk to the finals like the Heat did thanks to The Leastern conference or if the Hawks are actually legit. I know their record against the West was solid, but I don’t think a lot of people would be surprised if they folded like a cheap lawn chair. They’ve been mediocre for years, and now they’re supposed to be some juggernaut? Like people are quaking in their boots at the sight of Millsap or Horford.

And while I got my hate on, I hope the Rockets flame out in the first round again. If Harden is supposed to be one of the best players in the league, an MVP candidate even, I want off the ride.

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To be fair, many NBA teams feature a ton of iso for their best player. Admittedly, I haven’t watched a lot of Cavs games this year, but LeBron and DWade ran a fair amount of pick and roll in Miami.

Whether the Hawks are legit or not is really the question in the East. Regardless, with the Bulls mostly healthy, I don’t think the Cavs will be sleepwalking to the Finals. Not that they won’t be there, but I think they’ll be tested.

5

Yeah, I’m not a big fan of LeBron, but that impression of his offenses really only applied back in his original Cavs days. Well, and the first part of this season before they figured out WTF they were doing on offense. The Miami teams ran some pretty interesting sets on offense, especially by the end, and the Cavs right now are doing all sorts of things with ball movement and shooters. They aren’t the Spurs, but they’re not OKC either.

The Hawks were really good this year, but they peaked too early. I’d have put money on the Hawks to come out of the East even as recently as February, but the injury to Millsap (back but not close to 100%) and whatever the hell happened to Sefolosha in NYC have knocked them a solid notch down. Chicago is probably the best hope to challenge Cleveland. I’m just hoping my C’s can take a game off of them in the first round, which the odds are probably slightly against. I’ll be at game 3 to root them on, albeit high up in the rafters.

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Warriors
Grizzlies
Spurs
Rockets

Hawks
Raptors
Bulls
Cavaliers

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Wow, the Clippers looked strong. Their dominance over the Spurs was probably the most surprising outcome of the weekend. But, it’s only one game and it’s the NBA. Anything can happen.

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Those were some good games even though a lot of them weren’t as close as we hoped (not me though, I wanted the Clippers to beat the Spurs handedly). Only one upset compared to like a million last year, but teams are still trying to feel out their opponents.

Some observations:

Anthony Davis is really really good. He almost got them back within striking distance by himself. I cannot wait to see him in 2-3 years with a better team around him. Right now, his maturity reminds me of Durant and Westbrook

I missed the Rockets/Mavericks game but the score was close. I heard that bastard Dwight had a good game. Curse him forever for spurning the Lakers!

I fully expect San Antonio to come back and be right in the thick of things in Game 2. No way they get beat down 2 games in a row. I think Pop will make adjustments like putting Leonard on Paul a lot more. They’ll rotate faster to stop Blake from going off and make Jordan, Reddick, and Crawford beat them. But for one night, it was great to see the Clippers live up to their potential. Now they just have to do it for 2 straight months…

Atlanta was more vulnerable than people thought. I didn’t watch much of the game, but apparently Lopez was unstoppable in the paint but the Nets went away from him in the 2nd half. That was a game they totally could have stole and they’ll be kicking themselves for missing that opportunity.

Its nice to see the Big 3 in Cleveland finally have a great game for all of them. I didn’t think Kyrie or Kevin would have much playoff jitters. I think they should continue to work out their issues in the first round against the Celtics to prepare themselves for round 2.

Stupid Paul Pierce, I hate his stupid face with his half-formed beard

Hey Chicago fans, Derrick Rose looked great huh? Nice to see him back in the playoffs being all explosive and healthy. No, I’m not trying to jinx you! :wink:

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Kevin Love didn’t actually look that great for Cleveland. I mean, yeah, he played okay, but the store of that game was the interior rebounding issues (Thompson) and the insane three pointers that Kyrie kept hitting with guys in his face. I was an Irving doubter before this year, but they’ve really found the right way to maximize his skill set and minimize his disadvantages. Cleveland’s D also looked really bad for the most part, which is going to be something to watch against a team that has a prayer of defending LeBron (Chicago?).

I watched a lot of basketball this weekend and it was fun. Not sure what else I need to say, since Clips/Spurs was the only surprising result from my point of view. Not that the Clips won game 1, but that it wasn’t super close for most of it. I was only half-watching - really shouldn’t have been awake at all but had some work to finish up - but from what I could tell that was mostly Paul and Griffin having absolutely top-notch games.

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Totally agree, Chicago will test LeBron and the Cavs if they can manage to keep everyone on the court (looking at you, DRose). I don’t know who on the Bulls would guard LeBron. Jimmy Butler? Can’t believe Dunleavy could handle him. But that will be a fun series.

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Looks like Mike Budenholzer won the coach of the year.

For years, I’ve felt they should give a different award than COTY to some coach with an overachieving team because it feels like coaches that are consistently good do not get the credit. The practice is less prevalent these years, but there was a period from about 2000-2010 where it seems like every few years, a former COTY was being fired. The reason was obvious. COTY awards are given out to coaches who have average or bad teams that wildly overachieve and then can’t sustain it. Expectations are raised when a team jumps out of the pack like Atlanta this year but it may just be a one year thing. Most teams without a big star or several stars do not consistently make waves in the playoffs year after year. And when that shine inevitably is lost, they blame the coach. Look at this list:

2012-2013 George Karl - Denver Nuggets
2008-2009 Mike Brown - Cleveland Cavaliers
2007-2008 Byron Scott - New Orleans Hornets
2006-2007 Sam Mitchell - Toronto Raptors
2005-2006 Avery Johnson - Dallas Mavericks
2003-2004 Hubie Brown - Memphis Grizzlies
2001-2002 Rick Carlisle - Detroit Pistons
2000-2001 Larry Brown - Philadelphia 76ers

Each of those guys were fired or left the team a few years after they won COTY. The ones who didn’t get fired immediately are guys like Popovich, D’Antoni, Brooks, and Thibedeau, guys who had pretty good teams to begin with (D’Antoni’s Suns didn’t really get bad until they lost Nash).

You’re telling me that in that whole decade plus, Phil Jackson didn’t deserve it one time even though he won 5 championships? In fact, in the whole COTY history, only 6 times have the COTY coincided with the NBA champs.

COTY seems to be equivalent to the player award of Most Improved Player. It doesn’t determine the best player, just who improved the most. COTY shouldn’t be for the most improved or most surprising coach, it should be the best coach. Pop should win it more. This year, I do think Kerr deserved it so I wouldn’t have wildly different results than what it actually is (apparently Kerr was 2nd in voting). But 2012-2013? Definitely Spoelstra or Brooks. I don’t think even with Denver’s record, many of us were expecting him to get out of the West. Anyways, congrats to Budenholtz

12

Once again almost everyone sleeps on the Wizards, and once again, they’re headed home up 2-0, with one game going to OT and the other a pretty convincing victory. Lowry’s been getting in foul trouble early both games, and left this second game in the 4th quarter with some sort of leg injury. That could be big trouble for Toronto. Wizards also kicking the shit out of them on the boards.

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Don’t get me started on the Nuggs firing Karl after the 12-13 season. Everyone knew it was a terrible move and sure enough, they go out and hire the complete opposite. Brian Shaw got rid of everything Denver was good at and emphasized their weaknesses. Still pissed about all that.

So, round one has been all chalk so far. What is the deal with Rajon Rondo? I thought he was a great upgrade at PG for Dallas and he has stunk it up. I hear people blame his shooting, but isn’t that what Monta Ellis and Dirk are for? Jameer Nelson couldn’t shoot. JJ Barea isn’t a shooter. That’s not the problem with Rondo. I think it’s in his head - bad attitude.

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I didn’t catch the Raptors/Wizards game (I think that was on NBATV?) but it looks like stupid former Celtic Paul Pierce and his half-formed beard is going to the 2nd round. But on the plus side, more crow for Colin Cowherd to eat about John Wall. I never bought his stupid argument that Wall wouldn’t be a great player because he did the Dougie. And the guy he was high on at the time, Rondo, is making waves but in a bad way

Rondo reminds me of 2001 Rasheed Wallace. He can still be great, but his mental issues hold him back. I don’t think he wants to be in Dallas, which is weird because his shooting issues are totally covered by his teammates. Unless its under the iron fist of Pop, I don’t know what else he needs to get it together. Maybe he needs a teammate like Garnett to scream at him all the time and get him to play good.

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Compared to Rondo, those guys are the result of a genetics experiment combining the DNA of Larry Bird, Reggie Miller, and Ray Allen.

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Well, checking their actual 3pt percentage it’s better than I thought. Especially Nelson. I never thought he was much of a shooter. I also learned that JJ is Jose Juan. Did not know that.

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As someone who has watched basically his entire career, Current Rondo has two problems: his game is absolutely wrong for today’s NBA, and he hasn’t been the same since the knee injury. The first one might actually be the bigger problem, because even if he makes progress over the summer and is 100% next year (as unlikely as that may be), he’s still someone that you have to design your entire system and roster to take advantage of.

Even his ‘best case’ shooting isn’t going to be respected by defenses, so you have to have at least three other shooters out there to maintain any spacing (foul line range from your 4 won’t cut it, you need at least KG 21-footers). None of the pace-and-space teams are going to want him because they all want at least 4 shooters. The pick and roll is the foundation of most good NBA offenses right now, and he’s a poor guy to run it because of his limitations. In addition to his outside shooting (always going under makes defense much easier), he’s got the foul shot thing, so a lot of teams are just going to crush him whenever he gets in the lane. You’ll probably need to take him out in late/close situations for the same reason.

I’m of the belief that most of the “head-case”/“mental issues” stuff in professional sports is highly oversold by sportswriters filling column space, and that winning fixes pretty much everything. That said, I’d also argue that in a situation where you’re not sure it’s going to work, you’re adding extra risk by adding someone like Rondo, and most NBA coaches are highly risk-averse.

What team would want Rondo right now, other than a delusional and poorly run one like the Lakers or Knicks? You basically need to hope he’s healthy and surround him with, well, Garnett, Pierce, and Allen. Looking through all of the playoff teams, I could see him fitting in well off the bench in Chicago (with Mirotic to stretch the floor, in a Thibs system he’s familiar with, if Thibs is still there), but I don’t see him signing for a 15-20 minute role this summer. Milwaukee seems to like collecting guys in that size range that can’t shoot, but that also means they would have little reason to pay for another. This Dallas team is probably the best fit in the West, and I think “it hasn’t worked” is an understatement.
OH, there were games last night. I loved hearing Pierce say after the game that he didn’t want to have to go through customs again; I just hope another series win doesn’t save Wittman’s job, for the sake of all Washington fans. Celtics were competitive and not-quite-there again. Mostly the same issues as game 1, no solution for LeBron that doesn’t compromise rebounding at a minimum, and often the rest of the defense. Probably closer than it should have been, though I do think the Celtics will take one of the two games in Boston - last night was close enough that some friendlier calls and luck on 3s might have done it. I only saw the highlights on Mavs/Rockets - the late games are rough during the week - but it sounds like Howard was the news from that game that we should be talking about.

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Add another COTY casualty to the list: Scott Brooks has reported been fired.

While the article specifically says they didn’t do this because he missed the playoffs, I seriously doubt that reason didn’t come up. Its unfair, really, but somebody has to be blamed and you can’t fire the players. More interesting is what I’ve been hearing on the radio since the playoffs started. What kind of message is this going to send to Durant, who has one year left on his deal? The team’s going to be in a bit of chaos because of the coach firing, they can’t all be Steve Kerrs laying around waiting for the call, and if next year the Thunder struggle, Durant’s going to have to do some real soul searching to see if he wants to stay in OKC long term.

As a Lakers fan, this excites me as it means there’s a slightly better chance now that Durant will leave and come to us. :smiley:

As for Rondo, I don’t know what’s going to happen to him next year and what team will take him. He’s not a max guy anymore and unless he comes back to win the series for Dallas, I don’t see a team that will be too excited with him

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The Fail Blazers showed up for the first game and did their usual shitty job of defending the basket. Also, nobody could hit his ass with both hands, so Aldridge’s 29 points were futile. Hopefully, the Trail Blazers will show up for game two. Batum has been inconsistent much of the season, even when he’s healthy, and it seems like Lillard gets into a funk easily. I had high hopes for C.J. McCollum, and he could still turn out to be the secret weapon, along others off the bench, but they have all got to be more aggressive on the boards.

20

Didn’t Batum have an injured wrist on his shooting hand?

I’m surprised to hear about Scott Brooks. I know you can’t fire the players, but there is not a better coach available. The articled linked above names Billy Donovan as a serious candidate. NBA teams seriously still consider him?