The 2026 Oscars (celebrating films of 2025) - nominations, predictions, discussion

Cafe Society
81

I watched F1 tonight. No surprises, no unpredictable dialogue, a showcase for Brad Pitt’s charming smile, 70s and 80s rock, and LOTS of brand placement. I enjoyed it for what it was. It was better than that Maverick film, I’ll say that.

On a side topic, every Oscar season my friends and I catalog actors who appear in multiple nominees (there are always some). So far, I see Kerry Condon (F1 and Train Dreams), plus on the non-actor side, two films had brief appearances of 2-headed animals (I won’t list those due to possible spoilers).

82

Saw Hamnet last night. Meh. I though yelling as acting went out in the 60’s.

83

Strong disagree. Granted that F1 is an enjoyable watch, and it does have great cinematography, but at its core it’s like a formulaic action movie that teenagers flock to the theater to watch. Frankenstein at least tries to be thoughtful in its telling of a complicated story, even if not everyone agrees that it succeeds. I think it does, and apparently so do enough members of the Academy to secure its nomination. The one I really can’t account for being up there is One Battle After Another, but maybe that’s just me.

I’d be at a loss to make a prediction for Best Picture winner, but those decisions almost always come down to arbitrary tastes and trends among the voters. I think Bugonia is great but it lacks the charm of Yorgos Lanthimos’ previous Poor Things. There’s a warm spot in my heart for Sentimental Value, but it’s probably too abstract and cerebral to win BP. But I very much hope that Renate Reinsve gets Best Actress for her role in that film.

84

Both looked good but both stories were boring. Frankenstein because it brought absolutely nothing new to a story told a thousand times, and F1…well the word “formula” implied in the title is a brilliant example of truth in advertising.

85

All the major precursor awards have been settled, the votes are all in, I think it’s time for me to provide some predictions, otherwise I’ll probably forget to. I’m not going to try to cover every award, because I don’t really care about a lot of them. Because I’m a realist and I do my homework, I’m going to separate the likely winners (Will Win) from my preference (Should Win)

Best Picture – This race is tight, but only between Sinners and One Battle After Another. Honestly, it could go either way. I think the voters will slightly favor the more ”traditional” nominee.

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: Hamnet

Best Director – If this was bracketology, I’d be going with “chalk” here, though it isn’t unprecedented for the Best Director winner to not be the director of the Best Picture, in which case, bet on Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Should Win: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Best Actress – The only mortal lock in the major categories, she’s won just about every major precursor award and her performance is right down the sweet spot of the Actors Branch, the largest voting membership.

Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Should Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Best Actor – What looked like a runaway for Chalamet at the start of the year, with DiCaprio a close second now looks like it is going to be Jordan in a very tight race, with DiCaprio having faded badly in the precursors, especially SAG.

Will Win: Michael B Jordan (Sinners)

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

Best Supporting Actress – This one has narrowed to a three-way race among Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), and it’s almost too close to call. Madigan won SAG and gets to play a standout evil villain but the movie didn’t get much Academy love. Mosaku gets some choice scenes but is in a smaller supporting role. Taylor has a meaty role, but the character may be too unsympathetic for the voters. Let’s flip some coins…

Will Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Should Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)

Best Supporting Actor – Worthy performances by all the nominees, all genuinely supporting roles. This is another tight race that is tough to predict. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is a polarizing person but seems to have gained the momentum just before the voting closed (SAG again). Will his vote split with Del Toro and allow either Elordi or Skarsgård to slide by? Maybe. Maybe not.

Will Win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

Should Win: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)

Some odds and ends-

Sentimental Value is the favorite for the International Feature Award and is also a deserving candidate. Nomination for both this award and Best Picture is usually a solid indicator.

Sinners and One Battle After Another aren’t competing in the Screenplay categories, so I expect them to walk away with their respective awards.

K-Pop Demon Hunters is likely to win both Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song, mostly because it’s massively popular with the Academy voters’ grandkids (OK, OK, I kid. Try the veal). I really, really liked Little Amélie or the Character of Rain but it doesn’t have a chance.

Polls only: No discussion
86

Interesting analysis, thank you @peccavi .

I hope you’re right with this!

And I hope you’re not right with this!

87

I also hope Madigan wins. I’m sure she was not thinking Oscars when she joined Weapons.

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I’ve put up an Oscars vote poll in the Polls Only thread for those interested (votes are public)

89

Agreed 100% with all your predicted winners here.

90

I’m predicting, or I’m saying what I want?

91

Predict…Want. Whatever it takes…

(I voted my preferences)

92

Ah, okay. Every year I think I’m going to run a prediction contest here, every year I don’t get around to doing it…

93

We used to do a poll contest for the Oscars every year.

Anyone want to have one and knows a free site we can easily use to enter our picks and get scored?

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Here’s an EW article where four voters talk about how they voted in the major categories, and their reasons, which range from the idiosyncratic to interestingly observed.

Anonymous Oscars voters reveal Academy Awards picks, slam Timothée Chalamet

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Geez, I hope you’re wrong about that – virtually all of the other Best Picture nominees are more worthy!

I could live with that, but would much prefer Renate Reinsve gets Best Actress for Sentimental Value.

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Not for nothing, you’ve now mentioned this for the third time in this thread.

I haven’t seen Sentimental Value yet, but the trailer looked charming, so I’m planning to get to it. And I definitely know who’s performance to look forward to :wink:

97

It’s mostly all in the subtleties, especially her interactions with Stellan Skarsgård, who was also nominated.

Also, I have to admit I have a crush on Renate Reinsve. :slight_smile:

98

Watched Sinners tonight. Pretty good, around a 78, a familiar plot muchly redeemed by the last 1/3. Michael B Jordan is really something…not so much the playing twins thing, but the way he can shift emotions from moment to moment in a scene.

99

Watched Sentimental Value tonight. My favorite of the eight we’ve seen so far, everyone was fantastic in it. Renate Reinsve’s character feels like an extension of her character in The Worst Person in the World (another film she did with Trier), just older and more worn. 87.

100

Holy shit, I have never seen a movie damned as much as this quote damns Bugonia.