The 17th season of the Amazing Race will premiere on Sunday, September 26. CBS is scheduling a half-hour “football overrun,” which pushes the start time to 8:30 EDT rather than the usual 8:00, but presumably makes it more likely the show will start on time. The premiere will run 90 minutes, so those of you who record, plan accordingly.
For the last two seasons, I’ve boldly made pre-season predictions based on nothing more than the bios posted on CBS’s website (here’s the Season 16 preseason rankings and the Season 15 preseason rankings). And I’ve done not too shabbily, correctly predicting six of eight final-four teams.
This season has some extensive cast videos, which makes preseason predictions easier, but no obvious sacrificial lambs and no obviously dominant teams, which makes the predictions harder. Nonetheless, I’ll again jump in over my head and present the third preseason:
Taxi Assessment:
Stuck in the Desert and Officially Detained - or, Philiminated with extreme prejudice.
No one yet, but just wait!
Flat Tire - or, not likely to get anywhere soon.
No one yet.
Stopping for Gas - or, not broken-down, exactly, but not a good sign.
Michael & Kevin (Thumbnail Description: Asian father/son) Kevin and his dad are Youtube celebrities, and are apparently joining the Amazing Race on the theory that making internet videos in ones basement is an excellent preparation for an exhausting trek around the world. Yeah, the connection’s not quite clear to me either. Kevin’s “competitive” and “an athelete,” but Michael’s the oldest person on the Race this season, and even Kevin doesn’t have high expectations for him. Plus, Michael’s laid-back, and “not comfortable in competitive situations,” which would include pretty much the entire race. This is the weakest team in the Race–not by a wide margin, but they’re physically weaker, not well-prepared, and have a poor strategy. In fact, their approach to the Race revolves around “hoping teams underestimate them,” which… are they hoping the Roadblocks will underestimate them also? How about the Detours? Do I need to explain why this strategy isn’t exactly the most successful way to run a Race? Not exactly final-three material.
Brook & Claire (TD: Blonde/brunette emoting TV hosts) Brook & Clair are hosts on the Home Shopping Television hosts, which is a useful thing to remember when trying to differentiate among this season’s long-haired blondes (Hint: Brook TALKS with her HANDS a LOT). This team plans on letting people think they’re “foo-foos,” and then suprise people! With how competent they are! Which is another way of saying they hope the other teams underestimate them. At least Brook & Claire’s version of this strategy is at least mildly more well-thought-out than Michael & Kevin’s, in that Brook & Claire hope to be able to motivate other people into helping them out. Oh, and they’re also planning on winning the Race, which will prove how tough women are, because they’ll show their toughness by… pretending to be weak and begging for help. OK, then. Girl power, hurray.
Andie & Jenna (TD: Brunette mother/daughter) Andie & Jenna are this season’s feel-good story. Their story revolves around their “pre-existing relationship,” said relationship being that they don’t actually know each other. Andie gave Jenna up for adoption at birth, and has literally seen Jenna only twice before the beginning of the Race. I admit this team is hard to read, because their relationship isn’t just young, it’s nonexistant. So on the one hand, they aren’t comfortable with each other in this stressful situation, but on the other they’re still trying to be on their best behavior, so intra-team dynamics are likely to be cautious, but polite. However, they don’t seem to have any specific skills other than some modest European travelling and general gameness, so I’m expecting them to do most of their bonding in Sequesterville after elimination.
“Rapido! Por Favor?” - or, making meaningless ineffectual comments from the back seat, but in no immediate danger.
Chad & Stephanie (TD: Brown- & SHORT-blonde-haired couple) So this is a 20-something couple in a “fast-paced relationship,” meaning they’ve been dating for five months, and they’re going on the Race to grow as a couple, and test their relationship, to see if it’s really meant to be. Chad is apparently “loud, brash, and inconsiderate,” and their biggest challenge is “communication – and his temper.” Finally, Chad has “no problem stabbing someone in the back.” I’ll bet he’s “intense” too. I know it’s de rigeur to cast dating couples exploring their relationship, but why is it so easy to find couples who think this is a good idea? This kind of team can do very well for a few legs, but is really prone to a meltdown once things get rough. We’ll see how long they last.
Connor & Jonathan (TD: Nerd-buddies) Apparently Connor & Jonathan are two wild and crazy guys who just happen to be graduating from Princeton. They’re both “competitive, intelligent, and love to perform.” Connor is passionate about “show tunes;” Jonathan is passionate about “tweezin’ the old unibrow;” I suspect analyzing these two answers would be much like peeling a very small onion that’s been in storage too long, so I’ll let someone else do it. One advantage this team has is that they’ve done some travelling with an a capella group, so they might actually be more comfortable in airports and foreign countries than other teams. They’re also a young all-male team, and that’s normally a plus on the Race. On the other hand, they have some cockamamie plan about misleading the other teams about their alma mater by anagramming “Princeton” and claiming they go to “Toniprect.” I’m kind of in awe, because that’s so nonsensical it’s almost impossible to joke about, and I’m afraid that pretty much will symbolize this team. In any case, Connor & Jonathan are hard to read. I have a gut feel that they won’t do all that well, in part because they seem to lack the temperment and drive to Race well, but their basic characteristics-- young, male, intelligent and well-read, with international travel experience–read like a winning combination. For now, I predict the finish in the bottom half, but I might quickly revise my opinion.
Jill & Thomas (TD: Brown- & LONG-blonde-haired couple) Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but here’s a 20-something brown- & blonde-haired couple who expect the Race to show a lot about their relationship, think communication will be a big problem, and (for Thomas at least) have no problem being confrontational. Jill & Thomas, though, seem to have a leg up on Chad & Stephanie, in that they both love to travel (so presumably have some experience in that department), and Thomas speaks a little Spanish. Plus, one of their stated goals, if they win, is to go back and spend more time in places they visit during the Race. I like that attitude; that they’re storing away the experience to review later, so this team gets points for that. I expect Jill & Thomas will have a story arc similar to that of Chad & Stephanie: decent standings until the inevitable meltdown. However, I wonder a little if they’re overstating their expected “communication problems” and will turn out to be a more functional couple than they claim. Again, we’ll see.
Nick & Vicki (TD: Punker couple) Nick and Vicki are alternative tatooed punks, so you might expect them to be much different than other teams. But no, don’t prejudge them; in the words of Vicki’s favorite aphorism, “don’t judge a book by its cover.” It turns out, in fact, that Nick & Vicki think they’ll learn about their relationship on the Race, and they expect communication to be their biggest problem. And Nick isn’t afraid to be confrontational. So…not so different after all, but at least easy to visually differentiate from other teams. With this team, though, I’m almost certain they’re overstating their communication problems, and they both actually seem like really nice people (although Nick’s “standoffish,” if he does say so himself). However, they also both seem inexperienced, even in relation to the other 20-something teams on this season, so I suspect they’ll either flame out quickly, or wind up being potential final-three material. Which, I don’t know.
In the Passing Lane - or, ahead of the pack, but not quite comfortably.
Nat & Kat (TD: Blonde/brunette in 30s) Nat & Kat look like another young-women-friend team, as indeed they are. But on this show that highlights beauty queens (there are three this season; can you spot them?), Nat & Kat are a little different. In fact, they’re doctors. Anesthesiologists, to be specific. I’m not sure how this gives them a competive advantage, as I don’t forsee any depress-Phil’s-heart-rate-without-killing-him tasks, but it does mean that this team ought to be a little smarter than average. On the minus side, Nat’s scared of heights (which is sure to be an issue at some point in the Race), the team had admitted navigation problems, and (as they themselves point out), med school and residency don’t leave a lot of time for non-medical things like travel and interaction with people on the street. On the plus side, they have a good attitude: Be nice, maintain good karma, and never give up. Easy to say and hard to do, but at least they’re saying it. Like Nick & Vicki, this team could burn out early, but I think they’ll hang in for some time.
Ron & Tony (TD: Black guys) OK, look, I’m always a little reluctant to speculate on people’s sexuality, because it’s none of my business, and if they don’t say anything themsleves, that’s their right and is perfectly fine. But TAR has a history of casting gay couples, and, well, Helen Keller’s gaydar would go off if Ron & Tony stepped into the room. They’re musical theatre performers, by the way, which implies many things, one of which Ron confirms: this team has a lot of travel experience. Tony’s also a PhD student, so he’s got to be fairly bright. However, they’re also the oldest (on average) team, and although they’re long-time friends, admit communication could be a problem. Ron wants the other teams to be underestimate them, which again I think is a silly strategy, but not so much when it’s part of a wider plan and some well-founded confidence in their abilities. And I think this team has that: they can think things through, they’re reasonably fit, and they’re probably more experienced than any other team.
Katie & Rachel (TD: Blonde volleyball players) There are a lot of long-haired blondes on this season, and this team isn’t helping in the differentiation department. In fact, I’ll say right now that I’ve already given up telling these two apart (which should be fine with them, as they think of themselves as “almost the same person”). This team is competitive, they’re already teammates, and they have a good rapport with each other. They’re a little inexperienced, but if this were an all-male team, they’d be the favorites hands-down. However, the tasks on TAR are still slanted towards men, so I can’t be as certain about this team, given that they’re cloearly no all-male, but they are the nearest this season has to a final-three lock.
Gary & Mallory (TD: Kentucky Father/daughter) Gary’s a little advanced in years compared to previous winners of the Race, and Mallory is (ho hum) another beauty queen. But dad’s a marathoner and a hunter and has a commercial pilot’s license; I’ve seen taciturn older guys do spectacularly well on TAR before. And Mallory seems smarter and tougher than the stereotypical beauty queen. Plus they’re big fans, so if they’ve picked up anything while watching the show, they should know some basic strategy (as did Dan & Jordan last season). Right now, the team to beat.
Cruisin’ with Earl - or, drivin’ on the shoulder, takin’ shortcuts, and generally kickin’ butt.
No one yet–this ranking needs to be earned.
[sub]Props to Mullinator and his Raj Rating[/sub]
