The American Coup: 11.9.2020 -

That just makes it even more complicated. At least economics, most people can look at their personal situation, and have some sort of gauge on how the economy is doing from that.

Healthcare is more complex. People cannot look at their personal situation and gauge how healthcare is from that. Most people say that they like their insurance, until they have to use it. Most people that have had to actually use their insurance don’t like it too much. Especially before ACA.

They judge insurance based on what their premiums are, and what the co-pay is to take their kid to the doctor when they are sick. Less than 10% of Americans need insulin, so why does anyone care about the cost of it?

The problem there is that an elevator pitch is not going to be accurate.
Obama said, “If you like your insurance, you can keep it. If you like your doctor, you can keep them.”

And that was true for the vast majority of cases. But he was still called a liar for that. If he had caveated it, with, “Unless your plan is substandard, and will not actually cover you when you need it, and of course, I have no control over your employer, so they may decide to change the benefits that they offer, and your insurance company may decide to change its networks, or you doctor may choose to drop out of one, or even retire.” then it would have been more accurate, but is then getting into those very messy details that you say we need to avoid.

The people tend to like pretty much everything that the ACA had to offer, they just don’t like the ACA.

It may be an argument that could be put forward that people like not having to worry about pre-existing conditions, but you really cannot be honest on that without admitting that in order to cover those, you need to have a mandate.

Whenever they do that, they are called socialists.

No, they like the ACA just fine. It’s Obamacare they hate with a passion.

So for the purposes of this discussion, I’m more interested in people who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 and/or white people who are not very interested in politics but have vague anti-establishment sentiments that can be reached by Trump’s brand or by the Democratic brand.

Someone who is both being swayed by social conservatism and racist dogwhistling and thinks Obamacare and raising the minimum wage is socialism isn’t reachable and isn’t necessary for the democrats to succeed politically.

I would try to reach the Obama-Trump voters and the independents with things like the public option, raising the minimum wage etc. - while these are often demonized by conservatives, they are actually very popular and the right-wing talking points against them are getting weaker. The Republicans are really running away from talking about any of this. They just want to talk about immigration, antifa and other things like that, and there’s a reason.

Wasn’t that literally true? When polled people hated Obamacare but when asked in the same poll they like the ACA (or maybe it was when they were asked if they liked features of Obamacare that they said they liked those)?

Well, one-third of Americans didn’t realize in 2017 that the ACA and Obamacare were the same thing, and the ACA polled better than Obamacare.

Now that we’ve had another election, it may be time to look at a different paradigm than “Obama-Trump” voters.

Since Trump lost but Republicans did well in most other races, it may emerge that a fair number of people voted for Biden but went GOP down-ticket. Maybe the people who analyze these types of things will name them “Red Biden voters.”

(If “Red Biden voters” becomes a thing, btw, this is my claim to the trademark.)

If we surmise that Red Biden voters disliked Trump but otherwise support GOP policies and priorities, what messages will reach them?

Yeah, I do want to know more about the red Biden voters. For now I’m sort of chalking them up to a lot of fatigue over divisiveness and a desire to just go back to normal, but I could be totally off base. I at least think they’re probably not going down a white supremacist or antidemocratic pipeline. I think in a vacuum the ideal method to reach voters like this is to be open to mending fences and compromising, but we unfortunately know that the GOP counterstrategy makes this completely impossible.

I think the fact that Trump’s support is still very similar to what it was in 2016 is why I take the 2012-2016 shift seriously and I’d still look at independent voters and Obama voters Trump/the GOP grabbed.

You may be right about this cohort rejecting Trump’s white supremacist stances but otherwise preferring the GOP. Or it could be people who were fine with Trump until he mismanaged the COVID response. At any rate, they’re not likely to be a big enough group to require any special fence-mending, but probing their decisions might give Dem strategists some insight into winning over a larger slice of the GOP pie.

The GOP isn’t at all reticent about their goals and intentions in Arizona:

Ron Gould is a supervisor in Mohave County, which is delaying their certification vote in support of the challenge in Maricopa County. It’s not clear how that’s supposed to help.

That’s the help he can offer: a thin veneer of normalcy and propriety. It may not be much help but my point is that he’s there, trying to help the Trump campaign steal the election and he’s being open about it.

My guess is that this is a small number of people in terms of percentages. The group likely consists of disaffected moderate Republicans like John Kasich and Colin Powell. I doubt that there is much room for the Democratic Party to grow with those voters.

Yes, it’s a small group. The idea isn’t to win them over but to learn from them. What do they like strongly enough about the GOP that prompted them to vole that way while rejecting the party’s nominee for president?

The answer might very well be, We love tax cuts, greenhouse gases, voter suppression and the developed world’s least effective healthcare system. Just don’t nominate a drooling narcissistic bigot next time.

My theory:

The GOP was buoyed by people who normally don’t give a fig about politics but saw Trump as a smasher/troll who would make ‘the establishment’ wet itself, so they switched on partially in 2016, but once he won got swept into the Trumpist triumphalism and got fully motivated for 2020’s vote. They voted GOP down-ballot cos they’re Trump’s party and fuck the libs, right?

However enough regular GOP turned off Trump while still voting GOP down-ballot.

The question is whether the former group of pro-Trump otherwise-disengaged people continue to vote once Trump is gone. I think a lot are swept up by a cult of personality, and said cults tend not to survive a migration to another personality…

This. I’m in full agreement. That’s why I don’t get the moderate Democrats who are blaming the closer than expected results for the House and Senate on the “far left socialists.”

Another populist fascist personality will step in and pick it up, one that is disciplined and competent, unlike Trump. Trump’s own stupidity and incompetence saved us from some of his worst desires.

Who is doing that?

The question is whether a ‘disciplined and competent’ fascist will appeal to people who seem drawn to Trump’s indiscipline.

Virginia representative Abigail Spanberger (D) is probably the most prominent member of that movement, but she’s not the only one. We have a whole thread on the topic.

Cite? Link?