It’s curious that Pence has chosen now to go on vacation. He’s looking at a long vacation after January 20 (not to mention Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays coming…who goes on vacation now?) and this seems an odd time to get out of the process.
I have no conspiracy theories on this beyond it seems like weird timing.
I have no doubt that Turmp would love a coup, but it won’t work.
He already ordered Barr and others to arrest Biden and other prominent Democrats before the election (via Twitter, IIRC), and obviously that did not happen. Clearly even people permanently glued to his posterior will not take illegal action if it’s too attention-getting.
A military unit cannot keep secrets if it must interact with other units (and there’s no way a single military unit takes over the country). Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, have a regiment system where each regiment is essentially its own army. An entire regiment could go rogue, but the government would just order several other regiments to put it down. I read that the US Marine Corps operates on that system, but again there are other Marine regiments and other branches of the military that would put a stop to it in the extremely theoretical case of a coup. Neither British or American military units have gone rogue in over a century (in the US) and longer (in the UK).
According to Wikipedia the UK regiment system is fading away:
I dunno, if Pence wants a future in politics, being on vacation and unable to comment on the day to day nonsense of Trump’s flameout seems like a good plan. It’s not like he has any actual work he’s going to do right now. The Covid task force won’t be meeting because we’ve turned the corner and/or several members are currently infected with covid, so whatever, right?
At a minimum, my guess is that the people who voted for Trump in 2020 but didn’t vote for him in 2016 are hard-core MAGAs that joined the cult once they saw what kind of president Trump was. My guess is these are the racist white people who were previously politically disengaged because Bush / McCain / Romney / their local congressperson weren’t racist enough to suit their tastes.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday the world should have every confidence that a post-election transition in the United States will be smooth.
“There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration,” Pompeo told a State Department news conference.
THIS IS NOT NORMAL. THIS IS IN FACT FUCKING CRAZY.
This if of course anecdotal, but I’d say it’s a disturbing 50% or so, which kind of tallies with the lowest range of his positive approval nationwide. I live in a very red area of a very purple (though bluer by the day) state, and it boils down to three main groups. The first, and predominantly rural group, is the Qanon folks who believe that everyone in the big cities are perverts and want to take their guns, and they will support Trump in his battles. The second is the group (largely religious) who feel that Trump is flawed as a person, but is the tool of the divine to keep godlessness and gays out of their lives, churches and ideally world. The last is the special interest group, who have a single overriding obsession and will back any candidate that supports it, and ignore anyone who is against it even if they otherwise are compatible 90%+. This is those who want low taxes, 2nd amendment fanatics, or people who feel ‘socialism’ has to be fought at all costs.
That other 50% of the the 71+ Million, well they seem to be holding their noses and voting for Trump out of party loyalty, plus a smidge of the other issues, but I don’t think they’d stand for violence or overt cheating on Trumps part. Would they sit by the side if it was sufficiently subtle? Probably.
As that and other articles discuss, if a state’s legislature tries to impose its will over the will of its voters, it could indeed happen in large enough numbers to affect the outcome. In 2016 there were 7 of them - not clear which way they voted or were supposed to vote but the margin was large enough it didn’t matter.
Many states have laws (albeit, mostly toothless ones) that penalize electors other than the one they have pledged to vote for. In addition, if the legislature says “I don’t care, I’mma send Chumpistas instead of the ones you puny voters chose” then that wouldn’t even apply.
I think that’s a good analysis, I just want to add that these aren’t distinct groups though, there is serious overlap. A lot of the guys that trick out their pickups and drive around in Trump trains on Saturday are at their evangelical churches on Sunday. And most of the single issues of the single issue voter tie back to religious or antigovernment stances.
I disagree with you on the violence; look how many people stood by when Trump praised Nazis, sent National Guard to gas peaceful protestors, etc.
I think once you slip down that slope, you can rationalize more and more horrible actions on the part of “your” party. Of course armed militia needed to take over such-and-such legislature building - they were “protecting” the legislators.
Trump’s attitude re cheating is not to overtly do it himself - his toadies who are really running things are doing their best to do that in as apparently-legal a fashion as they can manage. Trump’s attitude is mostly that of a 5 year old. shrieking “YOU CHEATED” every time he doesn’t win at CandyLand.
Agreed @Ann_Hedonia, I grouped them into what I saw as their primary focus, but yes there is a ton of overlap. I did want to break it out a little, because there are quite a few I know personally where they seem utterly rational on everything else, but that one main issue they cannot be swayed. @Mama_Zappa, I hope I’m right and you’re wrong, but I’m not going to say I’m certain either way! My feeling isn’t that the 50% that isn’t hardcore is, as I say, anecdotal. Most of the people in that group probably share a lot of same prejudice and bigotry, but many of them also feel that resorting to physical violence is wrong for both sides. This tends to be true of a lot of the older Rs I know, which really isn’t helpful when it comes to seeing the potential for a violent coup.
That’s why I specified that if there was sufficient subtlety (or deniability) on Trump’s part, they’d support passively, just not with active violence.
It’ll obviously take a lot of post-vote analysis to say for sure, but my sense is that few Trump voters “held their noses” and voted for him. This kind of thinking was all over the 2016 election – that “reluctant Trump voters” didn’t like the Tweeting or the personal scandals but voted for him because they thought Hilary was worse, or he’d cut taxes, or he’s appoint conservative judges. I.e. that they cast a transactional vote for someone they didn’t really like but thought would enact some decent policies or at least was better than the alternative. And I think this may have been the case for many 2016 Trump voters.
But the voters who came out in unprecedented numbers in the midst of a pandemic to vote for Trump this year weren’t doing so reluctantly – they were doing so enthusiastically. Those “reluctant Trump voters” from 2016 have convinced themselves that they were completely right to back him then and that four more years of him is exactly what our country needs. They have come to see a vote for Trump not as a necessary evil, but as a righteous choice to oppose the forces of socialism, atheism, and globalism.
Democrats are going to have to recon with the fact that half of the country honestly thinks this way.