The American Coup: 11.9.2020 -

I’m mostly with you here. It’s concerning that the POTUS is even contemplating these things and that he (apparently) has voices in his ear encouraging it. I’m certainly concerned; I want it flatly known to future presidents that contemplating such a plan will get you in trouble. Here’s where I part ways:

It depends on your definition of “insane” but it won’t be worse than Nixon’s Saturday Night Massacre, Fort Sumter circa 1861, or the week of the Kent State shooting. Trump will fume and say/tweet many stupid things. Most Republicans will be afraid to take him to task for his stupid utterings but in the end that’s all they’ll be.

The institution of martial law by a president is not a concept authorized by our constitution, law, or jurisprudence. So it can only be whatever the people who impose it decide it would be.

For me the black box in all this is the current makeup of the US military.

We know that the centuries-long tradition is to instill the idea that civilian rule is the norm, and that military intervention on US soil is to be rare. We also know that many in the lower ranks are very much a part of the right-wing pro-authoritarian part of the population, and may believe firmly that installing Donald Trump as President-for-Life would be a righteous and honorable act.

What we don’t know is how many in the officer class, who possess the personal credibility with their troops to impose ‘no, we won’t take part in a coup,’ are personally on the side of civilian rule.

It’s very worrying that the Joint Chiefs head Mark Milley initially went along with the June 1 Lafayette Park incident, gassing peaceful protesters at the order (essentially) of the photo-op seeking Trump.* It’s good, of course, that he later thought better of it. But his first instinct was that it was okay.

We just don’t know how many in the current roster of troops–about 1.3 million active duty, and 0.8 million reserve–feel that there is some set of circumstances that would make it The Right Thing To Do to give Donald Trump power after January 20.

They’d readily find rationalizations in the media they consume (traditional and social), and in the words of official, accredited leaders. They’d find a way to justify it.

How many? What proportion? Did Barr find it difficult to fill out the roster of “unmarked Federal” troops for the Portland operation, or was it easy? Is the number of troops believing that peaceful protest is unlawful, for example, small or large?

It’s a black box. We don’t know. And as much of a lazy, incompetent moron as Trump is, if the number of American military personnel who believe a coup is honorable is large, we could still end up with the moron exercising Presidential power on January 21 and beyond.

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*A reminder:

I would not say “hyperbole”. Yes, millions of Americans believe there was fraud in the election. But the last I looked, there were about 600 right wing militia groups. Even if every one of them has a 100 hard core members who are actually willing to risk their lives to start a civil war, that is only 6000 soldiers, across multiple states. And even if they were, all these groups would have to until together with some sort of plan. Maybe a giant Zoom call LOL. What would that plan be? Random violent attacks around the country, maybe asasinating Gov Whitman or someone like her, that will inspire other Americans to join them? No. Many people who attended MAGA raliles are “mad as hell and say they aren’t going to take it anymore!” and many own guns. They are not going to leave their families to fight a war they cannot win.

I don’t even know how the war would start. The militia groups take over the Governor’s mansion and the legislatures and the Supreme Courts in PA and GA. Then what? I don’t think the US military would even need to be involved, the FBI and the state police and their SWAT teams could deal with it.

Another scenario. A dozen groups around the country all do the same sort of thing. It can’t go anywhere without thousands, nay tens of thousans, of average citizens joining it.

I am not one to say “it can’t happen here.” In probably every country in world history where a a goverment was overthrown militarily, the leaders said the same thing. But when that happens it takes organization and huge numbers of the populace, and usually they are in dire straits. It was basically lack of bread that started the French and Russian revolutions. It is one thing to join a revolution when you are starving, you may as well risk your life, another because you think your vote was stolen.

It is funny talking about a Civil War, because about a year ago I created a thread wondering if COVID might eventually break up the US. I didn’t think it would happen, and I wasn’t thinking about it happening with the military, but in any case no one is talkinig about starting a Civil War because they are pissed about the government’s handling of it. Now if the vaccine doesn’t work, and a million people die in the next 6 months with no end in site, that is a different story. That could lead to absolute chaos.

You did not put a timeline on your scenario. In the short term there may be some acts of violence from these militia groups and they may kill some people. In the longer term, the rhetoric from Trump may lead to larger numbers of people joining these groups, and it could grow over a number of years. But what I suspect will happen, is that 6 months from now when the country is going along as it always does, and Biden has not implemented socialism, and the majority of people’s lives are basically the same as they are now, as happens every time we go from a Republican to a Democratic President, the millons who voted for Trump will continue to be whiny little bitches on Facebook and Twitter complaining about the stolen election, and these militia groups will fade back into the woods waiting for their opportunity to start that war.

I am now thinking about how MAGA protests after Jan 6, if if happens in very large numbers, let’s say 10,000 people in 10 states, could eventually lead to that civil war. Don’t want to think about it too much, but basically those 10,000 draw the same number of counter prostestors, which draws more MAGA hats, which draws more counter protestors, etc.

What is Flynn’s motive for encouraging trump to impose martial law and rerun the election? He already got his pardon. He seems like a mentally compromised wingnut but should be aware that it would be illegal to use the military to overturn an election and that if trump actually took these actions and succeeded, it would be the end of the US.

You have a mathematical error at the beginning of your post, if 600 militias each provide 100 men, then you have 60,000 troublemakers, not 6000.

Unless the 600 was in error and you meant 60.

I definitely meant 600 groups, but that is a rough number, no one knows exactly. Or exactly how many are in each. Just looked at Wiki which says between 20 and 60 thousand. Let’s go with 60, and they don’t all agree with each other. Not nearly enough without the military and many others joining them.

I wasn’t disputing ( or agreeing with, for that matter ) your numbers - I was just flagging the math.

But I think to get to 600 groups you have to include some small groups, groups that would only be able to muster a handful of …patriots?..traitors?..

From what I can tell most of these guys aren’t much into fighting, they like to brandish, but if you as much as threaten to slap them, they’ll turn tail and run away, crying about antifa meanies.

Trump has asked all his supporters to amass in DC for a wild protest on January 6 and it’s really gaining traction on right wing media.

RIght. Some Boogaloo Boys are in Pulaski County, Virginia, about 15 miles from my hometown where I am now living. I grew up with guys like this, they like to take their guns to the range and blow shit up and say things like “Don’t tread on me” (the one thing about history that they remember) and “The South will rise again.” They are not taking to the streets for a violent revolution. Hell, their uniform is a Hawaiian shirt!

Will be interesting to see how many show up on Jan 6 but it won’t matter. How many Democratic protestors were there in the days after Trump was inaugerated?

I would guess, in any actively conscious sense, a minority.

The military is authoritarian by nature. Pretending the U.S. military is an exception to that is American exceptionalist bullshit. They’re not, and it is wholly plausible that if given a rationalization, they’d go along with martial law.

Here’s a cite for that:

If that’s paywalled, the story is on Yahoo too:

Trump’s tweet:

To be clear, you believe that if Trump declares martial law and says the election was stolen from him, and that he will remain President, that the majority of officers will go along with that, and enforce it by deploying troops? I am not sure what bullshit American exceptionalism ( I agree with that description) has to do with it. If all this were happening in the UK, or France, or Germany, I don’t think a leader there who lost an election and was defeated over 50 times in the courts would get any more followers in the military than Trump will get.

It is possible in the US today that given a plausible rationalization, the generals and soldiers would support him. That is not going to be Dominion voting machines from Venezuela that flipped votes to Biden

What they should do is this: January 19, 2021. 9:30 p.m. An agent comes into the Oval Office, and with great excitement, tells him that a last-minute miracle has taken place: the Supreme Court has reconsidered their December decision and declared him the winner. Then dozens of agents and staffers crowd into the room to congratulate him. In the confusion and milling about, someone knocks his phone out of his hand, and someone else steps on it. Repeatedly. The staffers calm him down (preferably with a sedative) and persuade him to return to the residential floor to get some rest for the big second inauguration in the morning. His bedroom TV can be either mysteriously non-functional or playing bogus news casts about the totally unexpected reversal of the nightmare he’s been living through for the past two months. Maybe Jim Carrey calls him up as Biden and congratulates him,

Next morning, they drive him to the Capitol building for the ceremony. Put him up on the platform to make a speech, and Chief Justice Roberts administers the oaths of office to Biden and Harris. Then everybody goes on with whatever festivities are planned for the day, and leave the America-hating fuckstick to whatever devices he still has to call his own.

Well technically, it’s kinda wrong to be vigilante, as a general rule. Vigilant, otoh, that one’s good to be.

The Washington Post editorial page - all the AGs and house reps who signed on to the Texas lawsuit trying to subvert democracy.

How about if we pull a Sheriff Bart Maneuver on them, and build a decoy Washington DC about ten miles out of town?

Why doesn’t the military drive up a bunch of trucks to Fort Knox and deliver all of the gold to Maralargo under Trump’s orders? Why didn’t the police rob all of the Phoenix banks for Arpaio?

This is about the same as anything Trump can order the military to do now. “Martial law” is meaningless. The military doesn’t run elections. Trump can order the military to arrest Biden. The military doesn’t arrest American citizens.

Police and military know what the laws of the country are. They know what illegal orders are. Just as any teenage gang member knows when their leader asks them to commit a crime. To pretend that they somehow don’t know, or are so in thrall to ideology that they don’t know what a crime is, is unrealistic.

If anyone follows illegal orders by Trump, they will full know the consequences.

A rationalization would be a foreign invasion, an insurrection, or a natural disaster. None of the Trump’s nonsense provides anything approaching a rationalization for martial law. As has been pointed out, the things that he is suggesting they do, such as organize and hold an election, are not things that are under the military’s purview. It’s like ordering them to open a chain of bingo parlors.

About 5 million.

I think some here are saying a coup wouldn’t be successful so we have nothing to worry about.
But I am worried about what’s going to happen, even though I agree a coup cannot be successful.

No, I don’t think the proud boys are going to defeat the US army.
No, I don’t think all of the military will back a Trump coup.

However, at this stage, I’m am starting to lean towards expecting violence or some kind of constitutional crisis in the next few weeks. With tens of millions genuinely believing the election was stolen (a significant chunk believing by satanist pedophiles), Trump obviously having no scruples, and much of the right-wing establishment backing him up on even the most outrageous moves…it is the time to worry.