For a long long time the financial industry has known how to quantify, and subsequently price, risk.
If Acme Bank expects a 10% return on capital, on home loans for example, they know full well the correlation between the Fair-Isaacs credit score of a consumer (or group of consumers) and the rate of default. If consumers with an average credit score of 740 default at a 2% rate for example, then maybe the bank loans out at 7%. This interest rate takes into consideration the certain defaults that will come, and the cost of those defaults.
If the next customer has a credit score of 520, the bank knows for certain that there is a higher rate of default for those customers, and therefore higher risk, and, for certain, higher costs. (related to defaults)
Do they refuse to loan to them? No!
They simply adjust the interest rate to reflect the risk and certain defaults. It is hypothetically possible that a group of consumers with credit scores of 740 and who borrow at 7% will produce the same net profit margin to the bank as a group of consumers with credit scores of 520 and borrow at 12%. (because of the different costs associated with different rates of defaults)
Is that fair? Yep!
If you pose a greater risk, you should pay more.
Is that how it works in real life? No!
Sub Prime Lenders take outsize risks, loaning to the riskiest borrowers, often the working poor. Is that a noble thing? No. While they take outsize risk, they often charge interest rates that are disproportionately high based on their risk and actual defaults. Many lenders have interest for cars and credit cars at the legal limit; just below the rate considered usury. They have little relation to the real risk and real defaults. They ply their trade among the unsophisticated and poor. The rates are often morally reprehensible. Often “Predatory Lenders” target the elderly.
But there is a perception that the consumer [alone] is making irresponsible decisions, and is acting in bad faith when attempting to walk away from debts. this is not the true picture.
Several years ago, “Sub-Prime Lenders” were the darling of Wall Street. Banks that didn’t have a Sub Prime Dept quickly acquired a sub prime lender or started one. So as to not sully their names, most didn’t carry the parents name any where. They were minting money. They were charging rates that were much higher than their actual risks/defaults. Big money was being made. They were loaning to unsophisticated borrowers with few choices.
And so what did they do? The same thing that a borrower does. So many banks got into the game that the competition intensified. More and more banks were chasing a static supply of subprime borrowers. The fools rushed in. To get business, banks lowered their credit standards. They took on greater and greater risks. Eventually there was a bloodbath, of their own making.
The banks and the borrowers did this together. They are jointly responsible for this mess. The financial industry would like the public (and the congress!) to believe that we need to purge the n’eer do wells. Hey, the financial industry courted tham and threw money at them. Now they’re crying about their own decisions.
I have no sympathy for either of them. But, Joe SixPack doesn’t have an army of lobbyists to craft legislation.
Now this legislation will make it harder to file bankruptcy, and harder to walk away from your debts. Good! But…this means that the financial industry now has lower risk, and lower costs due to losses/defaults. It will be interesting to see the impact it has on their profits.
But given the fact that interest rates for borrowers are based on the risk of default for a given borrower (as refected in credit scores) and that those risks have been lowered, shouldn’t that be reflected in the rates for borrowers going forward?
IOW, I would expect rates to go down for all borrowers, but particularly higher risk borrowers. If not, it seems fairly obvious that fewer borrowers will now be able to default, and that if interest rates are not lowered to reflect this reality, this legislation will just be a boon for the financial industry. I think they’re crooks.
I think this is bad legislation. People should be held accountable for their decisions, but bankruptcy is not a painless process. OTOH, if the financial industry wants to loan a guy with a credit score of 5 a bazzilion dollars bcause they can charge 68% interest, than they should take what is certainly coming to them. I think this legislation tilts the field in favor of the financial industry, and masks the real problem:
In their own greed and competition they lost track of prudent loan underwriting practices and got burned. Good for them.