The best candidate to challenge Barack Obama in 2012 is Ron Paul

[jrodefeld]

Alright Marley23, I appreciate you actually getting into the issues. We even agree on several points.

The distribution of wealth has gone crazy, but this statement is too vague to really mean anything.

Yeah, but why has this happened? It is a monetary phenomenon. When the Fed prints money, the people who gain access to that money first have an advantage. Prices are still low in the economy. Once that money circulates down to lower income people, inflation has set in and prices are higher. So wealth is transferred from poor and middle class people to well connected insiders. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. It has nothing to do with capitalism and free markets.

Ridiculous. The UN does not dictate US foreign policy, and the US has always been more than willing to ignore the UN when that suits its interests. Democrats and Republicans agree on that point. It’s the same for any other nation and that’s why the UN is so ineffectual.

Okay, leave out the UN in regards to this point. You don’t think military contractors lobby for war? You don’t think the military industrial complex has gotten too powerful? If we ever want peace, we need to attack these guys head on.

The Fed is your bugbear, not mine.

You should care more about the Federal Reserve. The biggest tragedy in American life is the lack of knowledge people have of the way our banking system really operates.

I agree, but I don’t think one is coming.

Don’t be so sure of that. Check this out:

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/95235-democrats-spark-alarm-with-call-for-national-id-card

In the name of fighting illegal immigration, some would propose taken away all our civil liberties, like in that atrocious Arizona law.

“Pay down the deficit and temporarily fund Medicare and Social Security.”
Horrible and callous idea.

How on earth is paying down the deficit a horrible and callous idea? Note that I said we should fund Medicare and Social Security. How about leaving this much debt to our grandchildren is a horrible and callous idea?

What are FedEx and UPS - not to mention the Internet? And doesn’t Amtrak compete with other forms of travel like cars and planes?

They compete in package delivery, not in mail delivery. FedEx and UPS do a much better job than the post office by the way.

Competition is good for consumers. Any monopoly, whether government owned or private, is bad for the people.

A ridiculous idea.

Why is it a ridiculous idea? Hayek advocated it as did many other economists and thinkers. Why not allow competition against the Federal Reserve? How could it hurt?

Right, like in Iraq… except we didn’t have a UN resolution there. Depending on the country’s aims, the UN is a fig leaf or a mediation. The UN does not make wars happen.

No, but we never make a formal declaration of war anymore. And we are told repeatedly that we should use military force against a nation that ignores UN resolutions. That is why I oppose our involvement in the United Nations.

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Marley23

You’re trying to get everybody to skip over the “does it matter?” question. So let me refresh your memory about the 2007 Ames poll. In 2007, Mitt Romney won the poll. John McCain did not bother competing in the poll, finished TENTH, and eventually won the nomination. Ron Paul got 13 times as many votes as McCain, but he did not win Iowa. He did not win a single state. Sam Brownback and Tom Tancredo both finished ahead of Paul, in second and third place, and neither of them even made it to the Iowa caucus the following winter. A poll of a few Republican voters in August does not say anything about how the entire state party will feel about the candidates half a year later, and it says even less about primary or general election voters around the country.

Bush won the straw poll in 1999 and was elected president twice. That is a better comparison because in 2000 things were up for grabs, while in 2008 it was a forgone conclusion that the democrats would win.

The key is to exceed expectations. Romney spent $6 million to win the straw poll. But Huckabee surprised and that got his campaign rolling. He went from 3rd tier and no money to 1st tier.

Ron Paul also exceeded expectations, beating McCain, Tommy Thompson and others. He was 5th but bunched close to those just above him.

Paul’s Iowa straw poll set the stage for his surprising $5 million 3rd quarter that set the stage for his moneybombs.

The fact is that the Iowa straw poll is the first mega event of the campaign and has a great effect on final results.

Romney, Huckabee and Paul were top 5 and are still contenders today.

People who did poorly like McCain who got 10th is out of the race and lost in 2008. So did Ghouliani, Tommy Thompson, Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and John H. Cox, none of whom are contenders today.

Ron Paul will win the straw poll. Only Romney & maybe Huckabee can compete with him.

Remember, elections are not just about who voters like. It is about the game of who voters think can win.

[Acsenray]

FedEx and UPS do a much better job than the post office by the way.

Not in my experience. I find UPS’s customer service deplorable and I refuse to use them. I find FedEx’s service too expensive for ordinary service.

The Postal Service doesn’t have a perfect record, but for what they charge, they offer good service and pretty damn good convenience.

[ITR_champion]

@jrodefeld

What I would like to focus on is what you all think of Ron Paul’s practical solutions to the imminent problems we are facing, fiscally as well as in foreign affairs.

Let me make an answer that is so obvious that others just haven’t bothered. Let’s imagine, hypothetically, that I agree with Ron Paul and some important issues such as withdrawing American troops from foreign bases. Let’s imagine that I care deeply about those issues. What’s the one thing that I would most want to avoid? Obviously I would want to avoid having my side of that issue associated with an idiotic, crazy, racist person who believes every kooky conspiracy theory in the book. Ron Paul is an idiotic, crazy, racist person who believes every kooky conspiracy theory in the book. Thus I would desperately want to avoid having my side of the issue associated with Ron Paul.

But what if Ron Paul was able to expand his appeal beyond the two percent of the Republican primary electorate who are either white supremacists, anti-abortion extremists, or youngsters who understand nothing about economics? What if Ron Paul actually got enough support that it was worthwhile for the other Republican nominees to pay attention to him? Then my side of the issue would become associated with Ron Paul. And that’s what I have to avoid. Consequently it’s to my advantage to work against Ron Paul.

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Der_Trihs

As Bridget Burke said, I was responding to Galileo Galilei and not you. That said; yes, thirty year old texts are generally grossly inferior, and centuries old ones are normally useful only for historical purposes. It’s called progress.

I mean “superseded by more advanced knowledge back when steam engines were high tech”.

EDIT: And ignore my earlier comments about “Rand”, as I thought the Rand in question was Ayn Rand.

The two single most books on the Constitution are the *Federalist Papers *and Madison’s Notes on the Federal Convention. There is nothing modern that is even in the same league. In third place would be Joseph Story’s *Commentaries on the Constitution *(1833), and 4th might be St. George Tucker’s book.

[Marley23]

@jrodefeld

Prices are still low in the economy. Once that money circulates down to lower income people, inflation has set in and prices are higher. So wealth is transferred from poor and middle class people to well connected insiders. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. It has nothing to do with capitalism and free markets.

What’s your proposal for doing something about that?

You don’t think military contractors lobby for war?

They lobby for products and contracts. The side effects are obvious but that’s also because of politicians and generals buying into the hype.

The biggest tragedy in American life is the lack of knowledge people have of the way our banking system really operates.

That’s another absurd statement.

Don’t be so sure of that. Check this out:

It’s stories like that that make me respond as I did. The National ID card story keeps popping up every few years without anything actually happening. It’s the same with the draft.

How on earth is paying down the deficit a horrible and callous idea?

That’s some spectacularly bad reading comprehension. I was talking about eliminating Medicare and Social Security.

Note that I said we should fund Medicare and Social Security.

…“Temporarily.”

Why is it a ridiculous idea?

It would splinter the economy and make it more difficult for people to do business. This sounds like that conservative who proposed recently that people who have no health insurance could try to obtain medical coverage by offering to sell their doctors a couple of chickens.

Hayek advocated it as did many other economists and thinkers.

I think we’ve seen how you respond to criticisms of your preferred economists.

No, but we never make a formal declaration of war anymore.

Yes, I know. But that has nothing to do with the UN. It’s political expediency.

And we are told repeatedly that we should use military force against a nation that ignores UN resolutions.

That has nothing to do with the UN either. The UN resolutions just formalize it.

[ITR_champion]

@Galileo_Galilei

Ron Paul also exceeded expectations, beating McCain, Tommy Thompson and others. He was 5th but bunched close to those just above him.

Paul’s Iowa straw poll set the stage for his surprising $5 million 3rd quarter that set the stage for his moneybombs.

You Ron Paul fans love talking about those “moneybombs”, yet for some reason your narrative cuts off at that point. What happened after Ron Paul received all that money? He finished fifth place in the New Hampshire Primary. You don’t win by being fifth. You win by being first.

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Marley23

It’s May 2010. Your straw polls are 15 months away, and the primaries are mor than a year and a half away. It is too early for the polling to mean anything.

Sorry, but her poor polling means alot. She is not doing well in the past few national polls that I have seen. Her problem is that a huge chunk of the electorate does not think she is qualified to be president. The GOP insiders don’t want her as the candidate either.

Does this mean you’ll vote for Ron Paul if she gets Palin’s endoirsement?

[Der_Trihs]

@Galileo_Galilei

The two single most books on the Constitution are the *Federalist Papers *and Madison’s Notes on the Federal Convention. There is nothing modern that is even in the same league.

Don’t be ridiculous. The Constitution has been repeatedly amended, innumerable interpretations and precedents made and so on since then. Anything of importance from those old writings will be included in more modern works; works which will be of actual relevance to law as practiced today and not back when slavery was still enshrined in the Constitution.

[Galileo_Galilei]

@ITR_champion

You Ron Paul fans love talking about those “moneybombs”, yet for some reason your narrative cuts off at that point. What happened after Ron Paul received all that money? He finished fifth place in the New Hampshire Primary. You don’t win by being fifth. You win by being first.

Rand Paul is about to win the GOP primary off of one moneybomb. He had one in August, and then went from 15% down to 15% up in only a few months. The moneybombs are a huge benefit to the campaigns. Imitation is the sign of flattery.

[Marley23]

@Galileo_Galilei

Bush won the straw poll in 1999 and was elected president twice.

Winners of the Ames straw poll:

1979: George H. W. Bush [wrong]
1987: Pat Robertson [wrong]
1995: tie between Bob Dole [right] and Phil Gramm [wrong]
1999: G. W. Bush [right]
2007: Mitt Romney [wrong]

That is a better comparison because in 2000 things were up for grabs, while in 2008 it was a forgone conclusion that the democrats would win.

As you can see, the poll has a rather poor track record. G. W. Bush is the only person who ever won the poll outright and went on to win the nomination. Dole tied for the win in 1995 but everybody knew he was the consensus choice (and a sacrificial lamb in any case). The field was wide open with no incumbents in 2007, and like I said, McCain won the nomination even though he blew off the poll entirely because his campaign was in the toilet at the time. 2008 was a good situation for the Democrats but it was not a foregone conclusion in mid-2007 that they were going to win. You’re trying to cherry pick. The winner of the poll has been nominated twice out of five times, and that’s if you exclude Gramm.

The fact is that the Iowa straw poll is the first mega event of the campaign

Only if you’re a politico.

People who did poorly like McCain who got 10th is out of the race and lost in 2008.

He beat Ron Paul for the nomination without even participation in the straw poll. You can’t claim that Paul’s result is significant and then dismiss the fact that McCain didn’t even bother showing up, got less than one percent of the vote, and still got the nomination the following year. McCain is not “out of the race.” He won the nomination. He didn’t win the election, but he did much better than Paul did. That’s why we’re playing ‘wait til next year’ right now. Paul lost, McCain got the shot at the big time.

So did Ghouliani, Tommy Thompson, Fred Thompson, Duncan Hunter, and John H. Cox, none of whom are contenders today.

True, but again, that didn’t have much to do with the straw poll.

Ron Paul will win the straw poll. Only Romney & maybe Huckabee can compete with him.

They didn’t compete with him in 2008. They crushed him.

[Ravenman]

@jrodefeld

You should care more about the Federal Reserve. The biggest tragedy in American life is the lack of knowledge people have of the way our banking system really operates.

A bigger tragedy than racism?

[Marley23]

@Galileo_Galilei

Sorry, but her poor polling means alot.

No polls mean a lot at this stage. Outside of the far right I don’t think many people have a high opinion of her, but that’s based on her actual performance in an election, not polling.

Does this mean you’ll vote for Ron Paul if she gets Palin’s endoirsement?

I wouldn’t vote for either of them in a million years. I’m just pointing out that Palin has a much larger base of support and is better at raising money than the “moneybomber.” Who is in more demand as a fundraiser for other candidates, do you think: her or Paul?

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Der_Trihs

Don’t be ridiculous. The Constitution has been repeatedly amended, innumerable interpretations and precedents made and so on since then. Anything of importance from those old writings will be included in more modern works; works which will be of actual relevance to law as practiced today and not back when slavery was still enshrined in the Constitution.

The courts today do not follow the Constitution, or the Bill-of-Rights, or the other amendments, or the Federalist Papers, or Madison’s Notes, or even the Marshall Court. So court decisions today are worthless when trying to understand the true meaning of the Constitution.

For just one example; the war of drugs. The war on drugs is not even ballpark Constitutional by any stretch of the imagination. It violates the Constitution in dozens of places. Yet the courts uphold the war on drugs.

What we have today is Constitutional anarchy. There is no way to figure out from the text of the Constitution, or even from the writings of the Founding Fathers, how a court would rule on 99% of the cases that come up.

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Marley23

Winners of the Ames straw poll:

1979: George H. W. Bush [wrong]

Not wrong because Bush won in 1988. And he became VP in 1980. So the Iowa straw poll helped him, it did not hurt him.

[Marley23]

@Galileo_Galilei

Not wrong because Bush won in 1988. And he became VP in 1980.

The straw poll voters chose him as the nominee for president that in 1980. Did he win the nomination or not?

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Marley23

No polls mean a lot at this stage. Outside of the far right I don’t think many people have a high opinion of her, but that’s based on her actual performance in an election, not polling.
I wouldn’t vote for either of them in a million years. I’m just pointing out that Palin has a much larger base of support and is better at raising money than the “moneybomber.” Who is in more demand as a fundraiser for other candidates, do you think: her or Paul?

Palin will never raise as much money as Ron Paul. Romney is the only candidate who might, but he has financial issues that may cost him and he might have to drop out.

[Kimstu]

@Galileo Galilei

[Palin’s] problem is that a huge chunk of the electorate does not think she is qualified to be president. The GOP insiders don’t want her as the candidate either.

Both of these statements also hold true for Ron Paul. I don’t understand why you draw such different conclusions about their electabiilty.

[Galileo_Galilei]

@Marley23

The straw poll voters chose him as the nominee for president that in 1980. Did he win the nomination or not?

He won in 1988. Winning a straw poll pays big dividends down the road.

[Marley23]

@Galileo_Galilei

Palin will never raise as much money as Ron Paul.

She’s able to pull in six figures a night as a speaker and she can’t even talk. You think it’s a big deal that Ron Paul is having one event?

Romney is the only candidate who might, but he has financial issues that may cost him and he might have to drop out.

Romney’s net worth is in the eight or nine figure range, and he’s been campaigning since probably November 5, 2008.

@Galileo_Galilei

He won in 1988.

That would be “No,” then.

Winning a straw poll pays big dividends down the road.

So if Ron Paul wins, maybe he has a shot in 2020. He’ll only be 85 then, and by your estimates I assume he’ll have the spunk of a 70-year-old. Or maybe not. What dividends did the poll pay for Pat Robertson? He ran in 1988 and 1992 and barely got a sniff. What dividends did it pay for Phil Gramm? You keep saying Mitt Romney can’t win - he certainly didn’t in 2008 - and now you’re saying he may not even make it to Iowa, so what dividends did it pay for him?