The "Big Impact" Plan for Iraqi WMDs

Scylla:

IMO, you have an unusually circumscribed definition of “lying” and “truth-telling.” In your view, apparently, one must be clairvoyant, almost, before one can accuse someone of dishonesty. I find this perspective strange, especially in relation to politicians. For me, having come to political awareness during the Vietnam war (and especially Watergate), I’m afraid they’re lying is my default position, regardless of whether or not “they” are Democrats or Republicans.

And the amazing thing about your defense of the administration is that by employing it, at least as far as I can see, one can never determine whether or not our leaders are lying to us – because lying and telling the truth present exactly the same appearance from your perspective. In other words, truth and lie look exactly alike. For example, you point out in your reply to Elvis:

And there is no doubt some truth to this. But if I were an investment counselor, and I was aware that the general expert opinion regarding investment X was, “X is a bad investment” – with the exception of the financial managers of investment X, who assured me that it was sound – would I be lying if I were to say to you, “There is no room for doubt that X is a sound investment”? If I told you that, and withheld from you to the best of my ability the contrary opinions of the experts, would you think I was lying? If you were to take my advice, invest in X, and then lose all of your money, might you not bitterly wonder afterwards if you had been taken to the cleaners? That I had lied to you? Or would you excuse me for simply making an honest mistake?

If you have the time, I would like to hear your response to my previous post, above, concerning Bush’s claim that Iraq had attempted to purchase unprocessed uranium from Niger. To my knowledge, my reconstruction of the course of events surrounding that claim is accurate, and it also provides a good example of willful mendacity on the part of the administration; a concerted effort, on their part, to take what they knew, extract from it those elements that supported the case for war, and bury/ignore the rest. In this particular case, however, the rest came back to bite them on their ass.

In the other thread where we’ve been discussing these issues you’ve said repeatedly that you can’t understand why someone would lie if they knew they were going to get caught. But with regard to this we can also ask ourselves a couple of other questions: 1) Did the administration know it was going to get caught? 2) Does the administration care if it gets caught?

Here what’s I think: with regard to the first question, I suspect the administration knew that much of the information it had was of questionable nature, even though they claimed otherwise (i.e., that it was reliable). I think they did this because they were relatively certain they would find something in Iraq – some forgotten centrifuges in a storage locker, a cache of old chemical shells, or a bit of jissom in a mason jar on the back shelf of some lab – that they could retroactively exploit to justify their pre-war claims. And I think as well that you see this strategy playing itself out now, with regard to the vial of botulinum bacteria, for example. Has not elucidator, in post after post over the last months, bemoaned the lowering of the bar to such a point that literally anything, a forgotten mason jar of bad germs for example, could be touted by the administration as an example of “WMDs?” Isn’t that exactly what Bush and his cronies are doing now? Didn’t McClellan recently claim that there was no other use for botulinum except to “kill people,” and that the vial they found should rightfully be considered a “WMD”?

The administration could release some of its pre-war intelligence to show why it felt as strongly as it did; and if that intelligence was strong, Bush might thereby partially regain some of his credibility. He has not chosen to do so. In fact, it appears as if he’s planning to exploit a different strategy: he’s planning to claim that they were right all along, and to hell with the truth. And I think I know why: if they were to release their pre-war intelligence, the public would quickly discover that it was about as solid as a piece of wet toilet paper. After all, as far as I am aware, not one of the claims they made prior to war has withstood critical inspection. Hell, three pages of this thread I’ve wasted trying to convince Sam Stone that the administration willfully ignored the judgement of their own technical specialists when they chose to claim that those aluminum tubes were intended for use as uranium refinement centrifuges. Amazing, really, considering the body of evidence I was required to cite in order to make my case, and even then, in the end, Sam balked. What does it take, I wonder? At any rate, the statement “Iraq has purchased aluminum tubes suitable for use in centrifuges,” is both technically inaccurate and false. That’s two false statements (uranium purchase and aluminum tubes) taken from the SOTU – the State of the Union address, fer chrissakes! – that have proven to be wrong, afterwards. One right after the other. Both deployed in Bush’s speech as core justifications for action against Iraq. Both disputed by intelligence experts for months prior to the SOTU. One which the President was eventually forced to recant, due to public pressure. The other, also false, never even recanted. Doesn’t this cause you to at least raise your eyebrows? It doesn’t awaken within you a question about how it could have happened, how much the president really knew before he chose to make those statements, and so on? I mean, you do at least recognize the possibility that Bush was being less than truthful here, yes? Do you not think that such a possibility should be investigated?

This issue connects into the second question. I’m really not convinced that the administration gives a goddamn flying fuck about being caught. Jesus, they had every reason in the world, for example, to expect that there would be a strong reaction to the SOTU claim that Iraq had sought to purchase yellowcake from Niger. They stuffed it in, anyway. Personally, I think they are relying here on what they believe to be the general ignorance and laziness of the American public. They’re hoping that, by projecting a strong image, Americans won’t really care, or even know, that they were lied to. In short, they’re hoping not to be held accountable. They hope they can muddy the water a bit: “some of our intelligence may have been wrong, we found some programs, you can’t prove we lied, Saddam was bad anyway, who cares,” and then simply glide on.

Such an attitude sickens me, and I hope to God it doesn’t succeed. After all, let’s remember: Bush lost the popular election. Even now, the policies he pursues do not have the support of the majority of the people, who actually chose Gore instead.

This cockiness of his has no basis in the electorate. I strongly suspect he’s heading for a serious fall.

From the PBS “Frontline” interviews, the following statements by Greg Thielmann, Former director, Strategic, Proliferation and Military Affairs Office at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research may be of interest:

Theilmann may hesitate to use the word “lie,” in this context, but I’m afraid I have no such compunctions.

We were lied to.

I’m just annoyed that no one has taken up the banner against H. S. Sapiens. I mean, what part of [ul][li]No other organism is so heavily regulated at the global, national, and local level.[/ul]don’t people understand? If Botuli are justification for invading another country, killing thousands of their citizens, and occupying their territory, then we’ve got to get a move on. H. S. Sapiens are FAR more dangerous than Botuli. As the old saying goes, “Guns don’t kill people, H. S. Sapiens kill people.”[/li]
Enjoy,
Steven

Scylla, I’ve been trying to find some way to give you credit for discussing this topic in good faith, even given your conduct in both other GD threads and the Pit. Unfortunately, you’ve closed off all such possibilities. Very well then. It’s your choice to conduct yourself in this “debate” foolishly, and the consequences of your conduct are yours alone.

As for the last-ditch point you’re now resorting to, what the ever-patient Mr. Svinlesha has just said, and with my thanks.

MtgMan, the only dangerous strain of H. Sapiens is the brown one, didn’t you know?

Now don’t be so hard on Scylla. I think you fail to hear the overtones of mournfulness in his recitation of the facts. Kind of reminds me when I figured out that Carlos Castaneda was full of frijoles and Herman Hesse was just a romantic German homo. That wasn’t easy for him. Its harder to move a mountain than to build it. In the absence of faith or dynamite, that is. Slack-cutting procedures are called for.

Friend Scylla simply can’t just throw the banky away all at once, it needs be unraveled one thread at a time. If you haven’t the patience, I sure don’t blame you. But its the only way.

**

It ain’t my definition, it’s Elvis’s floating definition I’m trying to work with.

I’m trying to discern the standard. I’ve asked Elvis to provide a detailed and defensible example. He’s responded with floating generalities. I’m getting the impression that Elvis’ definition of a lie is whatever is convenient. Over in the pit, he’s applying very rigorous standards in defense of Clinton.

imply making an honest mistake?

Ok, I’ll need a few beers before i can go back to Niger… Again.

Hell, three pages of this thread I’ve wasted trying to convince Sam Stone that the administration willfully ignored the judgement of their own technical specialists when they chose to claim that those aluminum tubes were intended for use as uranium refinement centrifuges. Amazing, really, considering the body of evidence I was required to cite in order to make my case, and even then, in the end, Sam balked. What does it take, I wonder? At any rate, the statement “Iraq has purchased aluminum tubes suitable for use in centrifuges,” is both technically inaccurate and false. That’s two false statements (uranium purchase and aluminum tubes) taken from the SOTU – the State of the Union address, fer chrissakes! – that have proven to be wrong, afterwards. One right after the other. Both deployed in Bush’s speech as core justifications for action against Iraq. Both disputed by intelligence experts for months prior to the SOTU. One which the President was eventually forced to recant, due to public pressure. The other, also false, never even recanted. Doesn’t this cause you to at least raise your eyebrows? It doesn’t awaken within you a question about how it could have happened, how much the president really knew before he chose to make those statements, and so on? I mean, you do at least recognize the possibility that Bush was being less than truthful here, yes? Do you not think that such a possibility should be investigated?
[/quote]

I’m not sure what you’d realistically hope to accomplish with an investigation. What will you actually prove? How do you investigate something as nebulous as you’re describing?

Frankly, I am really not to worried about it. Look how much trouble we have separating truth from fiction and making good faith rational judgements as we debate each other on this board.

Do you think it’s any different anywhere else?

How much do you think Bush knows about aluminum tubes? Do you think he’s devoted as much time to it as we have?

His knowledge almost surely consists of a summary read to him by an advisor.

Or else maybe he says: “I need a strong piece of evidence that Saddam is seeking Nukes.”

One of his advisor’s says “well there’s this aluminum tube thing.” And off it goes.

I was on this advisory council at work who’s goal was to decide between competing workstations for our workers, and these things wer’e piloted at several offices.

I sit down for the day with these guys who did the pilot and they tell me what they thought. Then I go and argue their perspective in a meeting.

I have no firsthand knowledge or expertise in what I’m talking about, yet I’m supposed to argue their perspective passionately. These guys all talked to me in detail and made sense, but I don’t understand half of it.

Fortunately, in the meeting where the decision is going to be made, nobody else knows what they are talking about either. we are just incompetant mouthpieces who are promoting the viewpoint of the groups we interfaced with.

So when they tell me the Bloomberg feed is the cat’s ass, and Reuter’s sucks monkey testicles, that I must get them the Bloomberg and must not get the Reuter’s they give me all these reasons and details.

At the meeting, though I don’t have the technical understanding to deliver all the why’s and wherefore’s. So, when some guy asks me what’s wrong with Reuter’s, I argue a bunch of shit that I don’t have the slightest clue what it means or if it’s actually true. All I know is the guy who should know or who’s supposed to know felt pretty strongly that it was an important point, and that he was right.

Now what I imagine happened was some guy committee deciding what to put in the speech and what no to hashed things out. The aluminum tubes was their example. It’s what they remembered when the went and talked to the intelligence guys.

Now the funny thing is that I went back to our pilot guys and told them how I fought valiantly against the evil that was Reuters, and all of a sudden they changed their tune. Reuters doesn’t suck. That’s just Fred. They figured it out and now they like it. Why did I go off on Reuters? Reuters is cool.

Should it be like this? No. Is it like this? Almost assuredly.

What makes you think these guys have it more together than we do when arguing their cases? Yes they’re experts, but their dealing with vast amounts of info.

So no, if as you say Bush is dead wrong about the aluminum tubes I don’t consider it the most damning thing in the world.

I think you’re reading too much into it, but I could be wron. Again, I don’t really worry too much about it. You may find that alarming, but that’s the way I feel. It’s the big picture that matters. If that’s right, everything’s cool. Some specifics will always be wrong in something as big and complex as this.

The big picture was wrong. Aluminum tubes and yellow cake aren’t the problem here.

That the big picture was wrong is the problem.

Ahhh, I don’t want to get into this. I think you’re wrong. Bush had great approval at the time.

Scylla:

Curiouser and curiouser.

You mean you honestly believe that a US President, going before the entire nation on television to make a speech in favor of a war that will cost billions of taxpayer dollars, endanger thousands of American (and Iraqi) lives, and potentially destabilize an entire region, having at his fingertips the whole spectrum of classified knowledge produced by his intelligence agencies, and having reportedly worked intensively on that speech for days prior to giving it, might still have less information about the aluminum tubes than I, a non-specialist living in a foreign country, with no access to any classified information and no staff to help me? Are you serious?

[ul][li]Here your argument appears to be: “Well, I’ve had to bluff/lie in making presentations before. Therefore it’s okay for Bush to lie.” Your defense boils down to a kind of, “Yeah, sure, he was lying. So what?” Or are you saying that in arguing for Reuter’s, and pretending to knowledge that you didn’t have, you weren’t really lying?[/li]
[li]Do you feel that the (rather informal) standards of veracity that apply to your presentation for the purchase of workstations at a company should also apply to a Presidential speech committing a nation to war?[/li]
[li]If the company takes your advice and buys Bloomberg, only to discover that it sucks monkey testicles, might they not be reasonably upset about being mislead by you? Were it me, I’d take everything you said afterwards with a grain of salt. So how does this example justify lying, again?[/ul][/li][QUOTE]

  • Should it be like this? No. Is it like this? Almost assuredly.

What makes you think these guys have it more together than we do when arguing their cases? Yes they’re experts, but their dealing with vast amounts of info.*
[/QUOTE]
I believe the Latin term for this is argumentum ad incompetensio.

But the reason I expect Bush to “have it more together than me” when arguing his case is:

  1. He’s the motherfucking president of the United motherfucking States of America, the world’s last remaining (and fully nuclear) superpower. He was elected to have his shit together more than me.

  2. He has entire motherfucking agencies devoted to keeping him informed on these issues. What have I got? One motherfucking computer terminal, a three-legged puddle named Abagail, and a live recording of the Dead at Red Rocks from ‘82.

So you’re honestly okay with the fact that I know more about this shit than your elected leader? Have we really sunk so low?

Scary, dude.

And what, exactly, was wrong with the big picture?

Mtgman:

Well, I would have said something earlier, but I got the feeling you are simply trying to Imminatize the Eschaton.

:cool:

(Actually, it was a brilliant post. By the way, what do you think of my new sig?)

Sure, but that’s because you don’t have an afternoon golf game that’s taking up your time. :wink:

Unfortunately, yes. Worse, Scylla doubtlessly finds this situation acceptable.

Gasp! They were? But … but … they all lied to me … I feel so cheap, so used …

Your point about patience is well-taken. My patience is in proportion to the good faith of my interlocutors. Those who really want to join in exploring a topic, without preconceptions, should and do get all the patience I can muster. Those who lack that self-honesty, and defend their preconceptions most vociferously no matter how ignorant, including the loudest invective against anyone with the temerity to suggest it just might not be so, get virtually none. That makes me different from most people how?

Nope, gotta add up the facts ourselves, draw conclusions ourselves, and let the “analyses” of parties with a political or financial or psychological interest in a particular outcome go down the ol’ aluminum tubes. Doing so, it’s unreasonable not to conclude that Kay has shown us that the situation in Iraq was as most everyone outside the US, and even inside it before 9/11, was as we thought, and not as Rumsfeld’s “Team B” wanted it to be.

Poor Scott Ritter - all that crap he took for years, even from us, and it turns he was a prophet without honor in his own land. Or is it that he didn’t see enough honor in profit? Whatever.

Well, if Imminatizing the Eschaton is anything like invoking the spirit of Eris, I’m all over it :smiley: **

I’m considering fleshing it out and sending it round to see if it gets the same kind of reaction the DHMO bit did. I was especially proud of the bullet point, and I think with more bullet points I could really sell the public on it. And it is all true! Every word!

I do like the .sig though. Lots of good .sig material in the trilogy. I’d probably pick something more risque myself, but that’s just me.

Enjoy,
Steven