It finally happened. The central government of the USA became widely accepted by its constituency as ineffective, and disdain blossomed into full-blown disregard. California was the first to secede. Saber rattling at the federal level 2,500 miles away was answered with a warning not to interfere with the new independent republic’s metamorphosis. Federal military installations capitulated gratefully to the new order and were absorbed by the California National Guard. Texas followed two weeks later when DC’s impotence was clear. As both states established insular postures and got to work reorganizing themselves, other states cascaded away from the federal charter with the dream of freedom from the constraints of an overbearing and defunct government. Some states merged fairly peaceably, some squabbled violently over borders & resources; others simply crumbled into anarchic failed states.
Then what happened? Let’s assume a vanishingly small proportion of the population considered themselves “Americans” anymore—their loyalties lay now with their home state, which may or may not look anything like the current map. Maybe some states divided, some merged. Perhaps some regions were completely abandoned as useless no-man’s land, more liability than asset.
Are you sure it’s fiction?
Not at all. My rifle is a .30-30 lever action and requires special ammunition. I need to know if I should be stocking up. 
But I’m optimistic it’s just fiction.
I’ll bite.
New nations:
California — independence is the best thing that’s happened in decades. The people pull together and fix some of their problems. The new nation adopts a policy of bilingualism (Spanish / English).
Alaska — without federal subsidies, Alaskans throw out any pretense of environmentalism, resulting in a short-term windfall.
Hawai’i — asserts independence, as do Guam and Am. Sam.
Oregon & Washington apply to join Canada, are rejected, and unite to form Cascadia, capital in Salem.
Banding together to protect their water rights, the Western States unite (Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Arizona (reluctantly), and New Mexico), with their capital in Denver. An expansive state, they quickly conquer and subdue eastern Cascadia.
Mexico re-asserts sovereignty over the Southwest, but ultimately take only a chunk of New Mexico and a tiny portion of West Texas. Taking advantage of the conflict, the Navajo Nation asserts full independence and subjects the Hopis to them.
The New South becomes the largest and most cohesive of the new nations, 14 states in all from Texas & Oklahoma all the way to Kentucky and Virginia. South Florida breaks away to join Puerto Rico but the union is short-lived and the two eventually become subject to post-communist Cuba.
Alarmed by the strong Western States and New South, the midwest unites from Indiana west, capital Chicago. Michigan becomes a failed state and is plundered by an independent Ohio.
Most of the Mid-Atlantic and New England states become strong micro-states, barring the merger of Maryland, Delaware, and DC (capital Baltimore—DC is looted and burned and quickly becomes a slum). Vermont and Maine (“Really New Brunswick”) are accepted into Canada.
I think the US would try to fracture along the cultural lines described in The Nine Nations of North America. Perhaps Canada and Mexico too; one thing that I find odd about these scenarios is how they conveniently end at the present-day international borders.
Well, I’ve seen maps of Cascadia that include Oregon, Washington and BC. Maybe also part of the Alaskan panhandle. Alberta (aka Texas North) would want to join the US. Quebec would obviously want its own ministate. Fun for all.
Provincialism reigns supreme. Air, rail and highway travel grind to a halt as each state enacts different regulations. The nation’s electrical grid collapses. Petroleum and natural gas pipelines are seized.
Eventually, Wyoming discovers that having enough coal to power a nation doesn’t help them if there is no nation, and they can’t get access to a port to export it. The Midwest has all the beef, pork, corn and soybeans, but no oil. Texas and Oklahoma have the oil, but have to sell it for food because the continuing drought has left them unable to feed themselves. Disney World shuts down because the Florida panhandle closed the border when it merged with Georgia. Hawaii is completely dependent on Asian tourism and gradually becomes a hedonistic zone of legalized gambling, drugs and prostitution with its global transportation and communication facilities surrounded by electric fences and armed guards.
Gradually regional alliances re-form, trade resumes. The new alliances decide they need to form some sort of union to provide for common defense and general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty. Fifty years later it’s all a bad dream.
Shit, Cali will split at least between North and South, but probably devolve into anarchy over who controls the water to LA
I don’t think it would be that dire. There are many landlocked countries, countries of limited resources, and countries that have split from a larger union that do just fine. Former Soviet Union, former Yugoslavia, former Austria-Hungary, former Roman Empire, former British Empire, etc. (Not all of those are peachy, I know, but lots of them are doing just fine.)
If it were done peacefully, 90% of the states would be just fine. Citizenship would be a bear, though: if I live in State X at the time of Dissolution, but was born in Y, and had parents from Z & Q and grandparents from R, S, T, and U, would I have citizenship in 8 countries?
I know what you mean, but I have to wonder: if the US totally flames out, and badly damages the world economy when it does, will there be anyone with the wherewithall to take advantage of the chaos and grab the land? The two top contenders, for obvious reasons, would be Mexico and Canada, possibly Russia or China if they felt like making a move for Alaska. Canada might be too busy trying to maintain its own borders and hang on to its standard of living. Mexico, on the other hand…I think they could easily nab Southern California (if it were sufficiently dazed & disorganized), and then West Texas and everything in between up to and possibly including Colorado. There is already a fair number of Mexican nationals in those areas and the resources would be well worth the effort.
Ok, my take on it is the Northeast sticking with the US and maintaining it’s long history of success while the seceders descend into chaos. Canada and Mexico may take some land in the west, but will undoubtedly protect their borders from fleeing ex-Americans. The successful secessions will be in the outlying areas, Alaska, Hawaii, and the Conch Republic. Even without this scenario I recommend kicking out Texas.
I hope Michigan and Illinois end up together. Legal medical weed! If not, I’m going to have to book it out to Oregon and California to establish myself there before the split.
of course it is fiction. Federal government will sell or mortgage as much sovereignty as foreign powers will have money to buy and will fund military suppression of any such secession attempts. People who gave Obama a “Nobel peace prize” can give him and others like him material assistance in running an “occupation government” if necessary.
That doesn’t mean that it all wouldn’t eventually fall apart, but peaceful it wouldn’t be. Why do you think TSA is pushing for a scanner on every corner?
I live in Phoenix.
I’m outta here. Heading towards Cascadia!!!
War in the Rockies over water rights.
You’re not from around here, are you?
The Canadians, hold their collective breath and wonder what to do with what was once the world’s longest undefended border. The northern states, on Canada’s southern border experience many refugees fleeing, at least temporarily, to a more stable politically nation. Various ad hoc agreements spring up between both Canadian Provinces and its federal Governments between the statses and provinces in question.
Water/electrical and crude oil/natural gas pipeline agreements become critical, as Canadian resources flowing into the states becomes a local concern, instead of a national one.
Trade agreements, such as the Free Trade Act disintergrate overnight, import/export tarriffs, controls and regulation become moot and must be renegotiated on a state/province and Canadian Feceral level.
Arkansas comfortably continues to export chickens and rice, shooting the occasional Texan crossing the border.