I agree with all this. Well said! Of course my hope is that Obama will get it done right. Time will tell.
Having said that, the over-the-top insanity from a lot of Republicans these days is corrosive. In general, I want to see the GOP as a balancing force, but not with those tactics. Those tactics deserve to be defeated, and soundly. Right now, I couldn’t see myself voting for a GOP candidate under any circumstances, because of the way the leadership is tolerating (at best) or even encouraging (at worst) the most mendacious fear-mongering I’ve ever seen in this country during my lifetime.
The point is that seniors who vote republican are dying. While a generation that grew up under Bush and voted for Obama is hear to stay for a few more decades. What the generation that grows up under Obama will vote like depends on how well Obama’s presidency goes, so the GOP might still come out even on this one.
Still, even if the republican party dies out, their will still be conservatives. The democratic party right now looks pretty conservative to me. Conservatism is not in any real danger. What the OP talks about is GOP ideology, not conservative ideology.
No, but they still have a ways to go to completely repudiate those positions. Consider, for example, the following planks of the 2008 Republican platform, which officially represents the Republican Party’s consensus views:
Hard to shake the “homophobic” label off of that one.
Well, the courts have overwhelmingly ruled otherwise (if by “public display” they mean “display on public property and in government institutions”) and the Supreme Court has refused to hear appeals on it, so the US judiciary roundly disagrees with them on this. Sure, they’re entitled to their own opinion, but this is one of the opinions that makes it hard to shake the label of “proudly uneducated”.
Again, they’re entitled to their opinion, but given the extent to which the “English as the official US language” movement is fueled by anti-Hispanic bigotry, one can see why such a position encourages perceptions of Republicans as “racist” and “xenophobic”.
Even if most conservatives don’t hold bigoted views themselves, the official positions of the party they mostly identify with are to a significant extent pandering to the minority that do. So conservatism in general is still plagued by perceived associations with backwardness and bigotry.
If conservatives want to dispel those associations, they need to do more than just fulminate against “foolish young liberals” for holding negative views about them: rather, they need to distance themselves from their bigoted radical extremists. Unfortunately, AFAICT, the bigoted radical extremists are the ones in charge at present.
Barring them managing to completely take over and institute an outright theocracy and writing their beliefs wholly into the law, I expect that the ideology that calls itself conservatism will die just as such ideologies as Jim Crow, slavery as God’s Will, and opposition to women voting have mostly died out. There’ll be something called “conservatism”, but it won’t resemble what is now called conservatism.
You wish. Young people voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984, and they carried that bias with them for life. Generation Jones (b.1955-1965) is one of the most GOP generation out there. I think they gave Reagan a 20 point margin. People under 30 gave Obama a 30 point margin.
Do you want to know why millennials like me (I am 30 but consider myself a millennial) lean so heavily democratic? A few reasons.
We disagree with republicans on most every issue. Health care, the role of government, taxes, foreign policy, energy, environment, human rights, gay rights, etc. Name an issue, chances are young people disagree with the GOP on it. Even on taxes young people agree with the dems more, because it has become obvious that the GOP cuts taxes on capital and the dems cut taxes on labor. Most of us will always be labor.
We have become politically aware at a time when democrat is associated with competence, charisma and intelligence (Bill Clinton, Barack Obama) and being a republican is associated with stupidity, willful ignorance, bigotry, violence and backwardness. The fact that Sarah Palin is the ‘great white hope’ isn’t helping the GOP. The fact that the GOP uses phrases like ‘great white hope’ doesn’t help either.
Economic insecurity is far worse for us. College loans and low wage jobs that don’t offer benefits are everywhere for young people. The concept of a decent wage at a stable job with benefits is not as common as it was 30 years ago. Economic instability makes people lean democratic.
Anyway, you are totally wrong. Millennials will carry a democratic bias with them for life.
I think the Republicans got just what they deserved after Bush. And just what Conservatism needed. The two were getting conflated with Conservatism going down the scummy drain that the latest Republican leaders deserve to go down.
I think Conservatism is already making a comeback more quickly than I anticipated. We have the stimulus nonsense, this push for a public option in healthcare, Obama and those he surrounds himself with to thank for Conservatism getting purer and stronger.
That’s an…interesting assessment. Can you name some examples of current trends or leaders that in your opinion illustrate the increasing purity and strength of conservatism?
It’s not if, but when. Then it in turn will fail, whereupon the cycle repeats itself. To say otherwise is to ignore what history has consistently borne out, and it renders such grandiose pronouncements such as that implied by the OP moot.
Seriously, why even ask such an absurd question? Conservatism never dies. Neither does liberalism. They may take different forms, and they may adapt to cover perceived shortcomings to make their particular philosophies more appealing, but they never die.
Again, that depends on your definition. There isn’t much of a movement to re-institute slavery or forbid women the vote or to enforce British rule of the Thirteen Colonies; some movements simply die out. “Conservatism” will no doubt exist in the future, but judging from history it will have little in common with what now bears the name. In fact, it’s more likely to resemble what we these days call liberalism due to the general trend that way in society over time.
That’s, um, well, I don’t know, but it’s not the only form of conservatism.
I think our country needs to have that particular conservatism die to truly flourish. Perhaps publicly & embarrassingly. Small (i.e. weak) government? Restrained spending (i.e., no welfare state)? An emphasis on individual rights (whatever that means; an denial of public interests?)?
The new elderly were born after 1944. Those old enough to remember anti-Hitler propaganda firsthand (the silly among them so easily manipulated by Glenn Beck’s evocation of Nazis) are shrinking.
In other words, the defective liberalism of Mises & Hayek. Old Social Darwinism dressed up in anarchist language. But at least some of us will discover that the honest-to-Og liberals of a generation before Mises & Hayek had a point, & that human liberty is not found in removing “restraints” but in providing tools & engines, & training the people in their use.
But it can. I can admit that plenty of Hitler’s SS were well-meaning guys who got suckered by a delusion of grandeur & still consider their political behavior evil & immoral.
Charles Taylor in Liberia? Evil & immoral.
Mugabe?
The vigilantes who ended Reconstruction by slaughtering their legally elected governments?
Pol Pot?
Pik Botha?
Sometimes we disagree because the other side is evil & immoral.
But hey, you’re not all fat &/or given to spouting racism in obvious ways. Woo friggin’ hoo.
_
Sorry, that’s a bit much. My mom is a social conservative. I used to be a Wm. F. Buckley fan. Conservatism is not monolithic. But the problem here is that there’s a false morality that’s leading half our political class into a program that really does hurt people, cost more, & create resentments, even as they think it will do the opposite of those things.
I like Paglia. I started on that essay, & just gave up. She thinks she’s more in touch with America because she doesn’t watch political television but she listens to talk radio?
Do you truly believe this, or do you simply feel duty-bound to defend your compatriots’ bad acts [please pardon if I’ve falsely asserted your political affiliation]?
I guess it could be the squeaky wheels in the party who grab all the attention, but there certainly seems to be a hue and cry from all sectors of conservatism for the passing of a defense of marriage act, a blatantly homophobic piece of legislation. There certainly seems to be massive support to thwart any attempt at immigration reform that allows Hispanics (from certain countries), and their progeny who were born here, to stay in the US, doing jobs Americans don’t or won’t do, while working toward citizenship. There certainly seems to be a wide swath the South, all the way up the East coast to my stomping grounds in Pennsylvania, that still consider black people to be less educated, less deserving, less industrious, less human than white people, regardless of what is achieved. There certainly seems to be overwhelming support by conservatives for the elimination of the right for women to control their own biology, based solely on adherence to religious dogma. There certainly seems to be a large component of conservative support who decry the scientific method, empirical evidence, and mathematical constructs, in favor of only what fits into their world view.
Is this most conservatives? I don’t know, but it’s a number much larger than 0%, and I find that very troubling indeed. The bright side, however, as someone alluded upthread, is that these ideologies are slowly (very slowly) dying.
Will conservatism exist when I’m ready to kick? Most probably but, as DT and even Sam Stone alluded, it won’t be today’s conservatism …thank goodness.
Most of the world’s industrial democracies seem to flourish well enough, without anything analogous to the post-Goldwater American ideological conservative movement. (They have “conservatives,” but mostly lukewarm by comparison.)
But, political history is not cyclical. Different parties alternate in power, as Tanenhaus describes, but the content of their politics changes over time, and many ideological positions have gone extinct, or nearly so.
I concur that small-c conservatism will live on, and rightly so. But if the GOP finally goes down the drain it’s currently circling, we’ll probably see a Blue Dog-esque party split off from the Democrats, or something similar. Or maybe a proper left-wing party will get its act together and the Dems will become the right-wing (which, frankly, they’re not far off). Parties come and go, but there will always be a political spectrum of some sort.