Which means that Boehner needs to make the bill more radical to even get it passed, and it’s already too much for the Senate as it is.
At this point I’m hoping that the big money is making some phone calls now. Donors are the only ones that can help us from falling off a cliff at this point.
Looks like Boehner picked the wrong week to quit smoking.
This has some truth to it as well. Other than the puppetmasters threatening to jump ship from the Tea Party if they ruin the economy, a coalition between moderate Republicans and Democrats is another possible way out of this.
This is the prime factor. All other uncertainties can be managed if there is end customer demand driving the market.
http://www.rawstory.com/rawreplay/2011/07/gop-lawmaker-advises-poor-to-drop-out-of-the-country-club/ Here is a repub pol explaining it all. Don’t buy a luxury car and drop out of your country club. Works for me.
Best headline of the day, in the New York Post.
Whatever you think of the Republicans in this mess (and trust me, I think they’re hoist by their own petard here), there is no doubt Boehner has seriously overplayed his hand, and it is going to cost him big-time. He’s twisting arms in his own caucus because there is nothing else he can do–it is pure desperation.
Boehner really has only two choices: (1) modify his bill to more-or-less match the Dem offering in the Senate, or (2) keep tweaking his bill in a more conservative direction in a desperate effort to win those 2-3 GOP votes he needs. (1) costs him the speakership–there is no doubt there will be a challenge after the August recess. (2) will fail–as it has failed for the past ten days–because his caucus isn’t interested in half-measures; they want it all to burn to the ground. Fortunately, before that happens the Senate bill will will sail across as a life preserver, and cooler heads like Cantor will see that the vote is quick, quiet, and blamed on the Democrats, while Boehner is left to sob in a forgotten comittee room.
That’s what happens when you team up with crazy. You know it’s the villain’s final scene when the bad guys start shooting each other…
Got to admire Boehner’s rationale:
Well then, it must be good. :dubious:
or corner people in the shower to change thier vote!
To be ruthlessly fair to the Pubbies…and don’t ever make me do this again!..he has the vast majority of his guys, just the Batshit Boys wouldn’t get on board. So thats the minority of one party of one House squeezing our nuts.
It becomes clearer all the time. Boehner can not control his party. If he believes the debt ceiling must be raised in order to avert a financial catastrophe, he has to bring some Dems on board. That would requires give and take, a concept the tea baggers have totally rejected. So the baggers and the repubs will not be at peace. They might destroy each other. the American voters are watching this mess.
Boehner was the prime mover in getting the Tea Party into the folds of the Republican Party. That allowed the Republicans to take the House in 2010. IIRC, he mentioned that he would have an “adult conversation” with the Tea Party Caucus when the debt ceiling business rolled around.
I will not speculate whether his speakership survives the whole debt ceiling imbroglio, but I’m reminded of something Goeth once wrote (roughly translated)…
What a man knows not, he to use requires–
and what he knows, he cannot use for good.
–Faust
http://news.yahoo.com/vote-delayed-debt-bill-default-date-looms-010308473.html
House GOP to meet at 10am today for the second round of scourging.
Does anyone think we’ll actually default? What do you think is likely to happen?
They will pay the bonds and widows and orphans etc. They will slow-pay contractors, and maybe feds. Geithner has a bunch of options, but it doesn’t get publicized because then they lose negotiating leverage.
My guess is he moves the bill more to the right. Boehner included $18 billion in Pell grants for low-income students in an attempt to lure Dems, so that’s probably gone.
That may work, but I’m not sure that will be enough. Latest whip count shows 25 Republicans solid/leaning “no”, 32 undecided; Boehner can only afford 24 "no"s if the Dems line up against him (which they will; it’s a winning strategy for the post-vote negotiations). I also think Matt Silver is correct that there is another dynamic going on with the House GOP:
In short, the Republicans who don’t need Boehner in the next election are more likely to defy him here, indicating they are aware of public sentiment to get a deal done now rather than play a part in Boehner’s face-saving kabuki.
While maybe not a technical default, “slow-pay” basically means not paying on time. The fear is not just a technical default but an effective default. We’re worried about how the markets and the world will view our failure to pay our obligations on time. It’s not merely a negotiating tactic.
Sure, we might be able to buy a few more days. Maybe even a week, but I don’t see how making deliberately late payments defuses any of the concern over our intransigence.
In the midst of all this wheeling and dealing, this has got to be the craziest idea to solve the crisis that’s been seriously offered–and that’s saying something. Worth a read if you want a good laugh.
Sorry, that last sentence should read “the others are aware of public sentiment”–I get lost in my own quite often sentences:-). Also, not saying this is the only or even the primary factor, but it’s out there.
Default means we do not make our required debt payments, Geithner and President Obama have been deliberately vague on what they would do if the ceiling isn’t raised but there is virtually zero chance we would fail to make those payments. If you look at the numbers we will bring in enough money next month to pay 100% of debt servicing, active duty military pay, all Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, HUD, and food stamp payments. That is exactly what we would pay, too. That is essentially all the programs that the Federal Govt operates that provide medical care, housing, income and food. VA benefits will also be paid. The biggest losers are defense vendors who are owed $30bn next month and who would essentially receive IOUs, the rest of the Federal Govt would enter a shutdown and people would be furloughed.
Now Mr. Obama and Geithner are being vague on what they would do because they do not want people thinking it is no big deal if we don’t raise the ceiling. I generally agree, because it is a big deal if we don’t raise the ceiling. It will not be a true default but it would still result in grave economic uncertainty and damage the market, it would also guarantee a loss of our AAA credit rating (which some think will happen no matter what at this point.) The rationale is, just because someone is still making their car or house payment if they have monthly bills 1/3rd higher than monthly income and have stopped paying other important bills that is not a highly credit worthy borrower.