Here’s my treatise on what’s wrong with the movies.
First off, we’ll just take for granted that the movies are indeed making less money than they ever did. I don’t have data to suppose it and it’s certainly possible that different statistics pain different pictures of the reality. I’m willing to accept that on the whole movies are losing market share, but the concept of a “declining box office” can be a complex measure. Also, I’m comparing movies today to movies from the late 80’s and early-to-mid nineties. I think popular opinion is that that was the pinnacle of the Hollywood Box Office.
The reasons, each with a scale from 1 to 10 on how big an effect it has:
- Cost - This is a complex one that I think most of you have over-simplified and misinterpreted. Movies are only marginally more expensive than they were 15 years ago. Since the day I was old enough to stay awake in a show people have been complaining about movie prices. In 90 when they cost $6.50 people frothed at the mouth about the price and concessions are an ongoing hot button. To claim that movies are too expensive is probably true, but to claim that they are move expensive than they were 15 years ago is only marginally true. Certainly not to the point that it dramatically outpaces inflation and more appropriately matches the cost of entertainment (which has increased across the board way more than the consumer price index).
So, to say the $10 for a movie and $8 for soda and popcorn is too expensive might be true for you, but 15 years ago at $6.50 and $6 respectively was comparatively just as overpriced. It’s not the primary cause of the decline.
Rating: 2 of 10.
- Multitude of Entertainment Options - This is the big one in my estimation. It ties in with cost in a complex way. Movies aren’t much more expensive than they once were but when you stack them up against the many, many time killing options out there they become a much worse value.
15 years ago the video rental store was still a developing concept and there weren’t necessarily a broad range of choices there to rent. Cable TV was pretty new and wasn’t widespread, and even where it was common people bought the premium channels at a much lower rate. Nintendo, while awesome, wasn’t quite the addiction games are now. There were no MMORPGs, there were no FPSs, games were half as long, and on the whole playing was a less solitary experience. The were few computers, no modern internet (with MBs like this). 15 years ago attendance at sporting events were much lower than they are today and there’s probably a half-dozen other date-type activities that didn’t exist a decade ago.
People have always had a certain amount of money earmarked for leisure. In the 80’s you basically had movies, mini-golf and live performances/sports. When you look at it that way movies look like a great bargain even if they account for the same proportion of your disposable income. Today, compared to cable, Netflix, the internet, and hi-tech games the theater seems awfully expensive for a short payoff. The price hasn’t changed but the perceived value has.
Rating: 8 of 10.
- Reduced Discretionary Income - This one ties into the previous two as well. 15 years ago everyone didn’t have huge cell phone bills. Cable TV was cheap compared to today and no one had broadband bills and Tivo/DVR accounts. Gas was much much cheaper, and that not a recent thing, gas is at a peak now but it’s increased over the last 15 years at a painful pace. This is not a new problem. Hell, utilities used to be an afterthought. In the 80s I can’t recall there ever being a need to complain about gas prices and energy shortages.
Again, movie prices aren’t any more obnoxious than they were back in the day, but when you’ve got 10 recurring bills each month they’ll eat up a bigger chunk of your budget.
Rating: 5 of 10.
- Lack of creativity in movies - I don’t think this can be dismissed. I agree with the notion that there’s always been crap. Probably a equal ratio of crap to great films over the last 3 decades. Still, all the remakes and repackaged dreck is killing peoples sense of adventure when picking a movie. Customers share a big part of the blame. In the 80s they didn’t focus group everything to death so you’d see movies marketed in the hopes that people will buy it. Much less certainty but this meant for a occasional original thought that would capture peoples attention. I’m struggling to recall the last movie I saw that wasn’t a remake, a TV adaptation, based off a book, a biopic or historical fiction. It’s probably true that, on average, movies are less apt to flop these days. You can assure yourself of a certain audience by doing a video game based movie. Nowadays we get the Resident Evil type movies, in the 80’s we got Howard the Duck. Still, it virtually eliminates the possibility of there being a truly revolutionary movie that defines a summer like they used to. It essentially brings the movie quality to the middle, which in effect lowers the perceived value of going to the movies once again.
Rating: 5 of 10.
- Increased noise in the theaters - I’m calling bullshit on this one. True, cell phones are ubiquitous and annoying, but people have gotten really good about turning them off these days, largely with the help of reminders in the previews. I can’t say I’ve seen this to be a problem as of late. No more so than pagers were in the early 90s certainly. I think it’s mostly perception if anything at all.
People have always talked in movies. There’s always that one group. Hell, it was a running gag in a Seinfeld episode circa 1994. I’m not convinced that it’s more of an issue today. If anything stadium seating and improved sound systems make it barely noticeable unless someone is being really obnoxious. Some theaters have gotten bigger which means more people and a higher likelihood of getting stuck with a jackass, but that’s the only scenario where I think noise levels have changed between now and 15 years ago.
Of course that still might be too noisy for some, but it was just as likely too noisy in 1990. You were probably just more tolerant. It’s the old rose-colored glasses thing.
Rating: 1 of 10
- Too many previews - There’s definitely more commercials and previews these days but personally it doesn’t bother me. I always loved the trailers of up coming movies and I still do so that’s not a negative in my book. The commercials are a little annoying but they are a long ways from being so bad as to diminish my movie going experience. Realistically they account for less than 10 minutes of time and they don’t cause me any more stress than old-fashioned movie trivia and elevator music from back in the day.
I suppose there’s a subset of people who are eager to get to the movie and back home, probably the same type of customer who dislike epic length movies. I’ve never understood this mindset, seeing a movie is a long leisurely thing to me, so 10-15 minutes here or there is not a negative. Still, I suppose there’s a portion of the audience who this affects.
Rating: 3 of 10
- DVD releases and home theaters - Yeah, this one is a factor and the quality shift between VHS and DVD might be the most key component. Sure they come out sooner on DVD but I think this is more of a response than a cause. As the box office returns get smaller producers roll out DVDs to get them into the market before what buzz there is is gone. There’s always been a sizable contingent who “waited for video” for all but the biggest blockbusters. I don’t think release dates have driven that segment to grow so much as the ability to watch a movie at home with surround sound and near-high-def quality. The move to DVD had a huge impact on the average viewers experience.
It plays to the value component again. Movies are better than they were 15 years ago, but home movies are better by a much bigger margin. As a result the difference in value is very pronounced.
Rating: 7 of 10
That covers the biggest factors as I see it. Each plays some part but in the end it all comes down to perceived value of the experience. In my estimation the much noted inconveniences are vastly outweighed but the bang-for-the-buck measure.