I can’t get the page to load, but doesn’t this mean that there’s a 61% chance that the as yet unknown Democratic candidate beats him?
I think the odds are based on the betting: the more interest there is in a candidate, the closer to 1:1 their odds move on the exchange. Just like with every other type of turf-accountancy.
It may still be too early to take prediction markets seriously. (Though I’d think that if, e.g., a ‘Draft McRaven’ movement were developing it would be visible.)
And I’ve no idea how the financial particulars at Betfair work. If players need to tie up funds in escrow until November 2020 there is strong reason NOT to lay against a long-shot.
I’ve bolded a word above to help address the following question.
November is the general election where the Democratic nominee will be pitted against the criminal/hypocrite/racist.
As a separate wager, they show ‘Winning Party’ as 51/49 in favor of D. As yet another wager, 'Gender of Next President is 36+% to be Female.
Pence has about a 2% chance of winning the 2020 election, according to the betting. (I’m afraid the true chance is much higher.) They also offer a market to pick the GOP nominee.
The “bid-ask” spreads can be quite large.
Donald Trump to be GOP nominee? 1.36/1.38 are what you get for immediate action, corresponding to 73.5% and 72.5% probabilities — a reasonable spread; but
Mike Pence is 9 to back , 30 to lay — 11.1% and 3.3%; and
John Kasich is 16 to back, 500 to lay — 6.2% and 0.2%.
I don’t know why the page won’t load — can you get to the Betfair home page?
I am not a fan of either party since both are pretty clearly more interested in the welfare of their sponsors. It would be interesting to see a widely available list of each of their donors (not individual citizens for obvious privacy and safety issues).
That being said, I have almost always voted as a Democrat because they seem to be more in favor of progressive policy. My major beef with the party is that they fail to reach out to the economically and politically disadvantaged folks who seem to make up Mr Trump’s “base”. Instead of showing these folks how “liberal” ideas and programs benefit them in a way that does not demeen them, there is a tendency toward attacking individual Republican candidates.
Stop treating Mr Trump’s supporters as idiots, show them how progressive programs benefit them, pay attention to and respond to their genuine concerns. I am not talking about the extremists, I am talking about the person in a small town who percieves their tax dollars being spent on cities while the road to their house is crumbling into rubble.