Drones have likely become a major game changer in a number of fields. Currently, their major breakthrough has been military, but we’ve had discussions about them for last mile delivery, rescue, searches (both manhunts and S&R), as well as possible AI controlled drones.
It’s become a common topic in many threads, but here’s our own thread to discuss current trends, efficacy, upcoming enhancements, speculative scenarios. Here’s a place to dig into the details without worrying about if it’s applicable to a single conflict or not.
A reply from the end-of-war thread, that I refrained from posting after your note:
Lots of things, actually. If the design specs call for something to be 99.3% reliable, you’ll probably be able to achieve that… but if the design specs call for it to be 99.999% reliable, you’ll probably get about 98%. And a lot of military hardware is especially prone to those over-optimistic estimates, especially given that a realistic assessment of military-hardware reliability in actual use is 50%, given that in any engagement, one side’s going to lose.
Drones are the latest example of what I call “the weaponization of peaceful objects” - in a sense how humanity may discover or develop something for benign purposes, but someone, somewhere is always keen to figure out how to use it to kill their enemies.
If I were a country abutting Russia - especially the Baltic states and Poland, I’d be beefing up my drone warfare both in size and training. Because Russia’s experience with drone warfare is the one variable that I wouldn’t be sure about that might complicate any possible attack from Russia on them if their saber rattling ever becomes a real attack.
Because Russia doesn’t have the capability to blitzkrieg with a conventional force like they did in the beginning of the Ukraine war, and right now the front lines are stable in Ukraine, but I am not sure if that is mostly due to Ukraine’s experience and their fortifications. In other words, is drone warfare inherently slow to advance, since the people stay protected behind the lines and the danger to the enemy becomes increasingly stochastic rather than existential the further you get from the lines? Or would Russia be able to advance several miles a day, which may as well be blitzkrieg against a Baltic state, against an enemy who did not have as robust a drone force?
Almost a year ago, Ukraine successfully used drones to deliver devastating attacks against the Russian air force from as far as 4300 km away. That doesn’t sound like a “slow advance” to me.
My main concern is Chinese usage of such drones. China is unparalleled in manufacturing capacity. It could manufacture tens of millions of Shahed-like drones if it wanted, cheaply, and the Taiwan Strait is a short distance. I see way Taiwan could possibly thwart an endless barrage of such Shaheds or even stop half of them. This, IMHO, is the much bigger threat than a D-Day style amphibious landing invasion (which would actually be the much more favorable scenario for Taiwan.)
Ukraine has some advantages vs. Russia that Taiwan won’t have vs. China.
Low-end estimates of the cost of a Shahed is $30,000. Let’s say that China can get that down to $20,000 through economies of scale. Are you really suggesting that they’d be willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on them?
What operating/navigational system do these drones rely on?
Is there not a capability for spike/kill switch to be encoded within forcing any party using a drone to build their own independent operating/GPS system or risk their drones to be rendered inoperable or even reversed?
GPS (or European, Chinese, Russian satellite systems), Starlink, inertial navigation, fiber optic man-in-loop, radio data link from aircraft or via reconnaissance drones. GPS and other jamming has brought the other systems into use. The US has an enhanced (hardened against jamming) satellite system.
Upcoming: AI enabled drones with target recognition ability. For state of the art information, see The War Zone forum. TWZ.com
Yes, but those people are not the type of person who would have a security detail. That security detail would be more likely than the boy to be armed and be able to take out the drone from a distance. If nothing else, they’d probably be more prepared to break the fiber optic cable.
@Velocity You’re overthinking this. China absolutely for decades has had the ability to turn Taiwan into an uninhabitable island. Drones are simply another tool to do so. Taiwan reduced to ruble is not China’s objective. Xi Jinping probably also understands the term “pyrrhic victory.”
Keep in mind that Taiwan is not a sitting duck. Taiwan has been preparing to repel a Chinese invasion since 1949. Taiwan also has a serious manufacturing base that has been mothballed, so a lot of the factories would need to be reconfigured back to manufacturing. That said, Taiwan absolutely has a manufacturing base for both anti-drones and drones.
My personal belief is that Xi Jinping is playing the long game. Don’t be surprised when Putin “retires” (“gets a lead injection to the back of the head”), China makes more overt moves to take Siberia. Taiwan is a distraction.
Maybe hijacking the hijack, but:
Because depending on how occupied the US and Russia are at the moment, it could be easier to take and hold?
I dunno, I couldn’t explain the current obsession with trying to occupy land either way. Economically exploiting an area without occupying it used to be the kinder, gentler method. It also seemed more profitable. But I’m not the loon in charge.
You mean like the Italians who allegedly paid to be allowed to sharpshoot in Sarajevo? The prosecutor believes this is a war crime.
I think it would still be a war crime if you only shot at soldiers, you not being a soldier yourself.
IANA Doctor or Psychiatrist, but I find your fantasies worrying.
I also find it worrying that such people will soon be able to live out those fantasies with open source Raspberry Pis, cheap drones and a 3D home-printed shaped charge.
So l am personally amazed this is not already ubiquitous
Give how widespread incredibly sophisticated AI is, why are we still talking about drones being operated by humans (and dealing with the incredible communication headaches that involves, like piloting by fiber optic cable) rather than simply having a drone you can tell “fly a mile in that direction and blow up any military vehicles you see”
Not that it will be a good thing for the human race when that happens but I’m just amazed it’s not happened already
AI takes a lot of computing horsepower. Why strap a $10,000 computer brain to a drone when a $200 drone and a human operator can do the same thing? You’ll go broke really quickly trying to use AI in that situation.
Drone wingmen for fighter jets on the other hand is something that the Air Force is taking a very close look at these days.